Hurricane Ike - Heads-up for Texas and LA in post #60

[MiaSRN62]

I always appreciate the info you provide Jim. Particularily now that my 18 yo dd is a freshman at a college in Melbourne. Her campus was hit pretty bad just from tropical storm Faye. So I'm subbing to this thread for sure.

 

[bobbiwoz]

Our plans call for leaving next Friday after DH's workday. I'll keep watching this thread! Thanks!!

Bobbi

 

[MdmMim]

Our plans call for leaving next Friday after DH's workday. I'll keep watching this thread! Thanks!!

Bobbi

I'm scheduled to leave next Friday, too, Bobbi. I guess we'll see what happens with ol' Ike.

Thanks, Jim, for the updates.

 

[em-o-so'smom]

road tripping it on 9/11 for arrival 9/13-9/19...keeping a close eye on this one...I hope we all can kiss this one goodbye out to sea.

 

[maddiesdaddy]

Thanks for all the great info here.

My first trip and my DD4's first trip are this Sunday through Friday. I am hoping for the best because her excitement is so genuine and pure.

Subscribing to this thread.

 

[tea pot]

To those with upcoming trips, you just have to keep the right perspective. Go ahead with your planning, relax as much as you can, and stay tuned.

It is important to remember how much these tracks vary. You never actually see this because of the way the charts are presented, but there is a huge error factor in forecast tracks. For Ike, for example, there is a 260 mile error factor at 4 days and a 350 mile error 5 days out. Just a tiny change in the direction of the storm can mean a hugely different landfall point.

Which is exactly what we constantly repeat to ourselves when Miami is squarely in the middle of the crosshairs like it is right now. Actually, six days out, there is nowhere I'd rather be than precisely in the crosshairs because you can almost guarantee the storm isn't going there!

But we'll just have to wait until Sunday/Monday to see how things look then.

Jim thanks so much for your detailed update.
I'll be watching. We fly down from Boston to WDW next Sunday on the 14th but more concerned about DD who lives in St Pete and teaches in Tampa. She has been in Florida for several years now and DH said I should not worry so much......
It's a Mom thing

 

[btrim]

We are scheduled to fly into Orlando next Saturday morning. Our DS, DDIL, DGC are driving down from Ft. Bragg, NC on Saturday evening. Sure hope this storm either gets in and out or changes its path. Any Pixie Dust you all might have would be greatly appreciated. Also, we will praying for anyone scheduled to be in the path of either Hanna or Ike.

Rainy in Illinois,
Binnie

 

[JimMIA]

Ike is moving along as expected, but the longer term looks more uncertain. It completed its long NW run and has now turned West. The storm is in the process of turning WSW for a while, and then is projected to return to a generally westward path.

Ike is currently located roughly 450 miles north of the Leeward Islands and 500 miles NE of Puerto Rico, and is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 MPH.

Ike is a relatively small storm geographically. The main part of the storm is less than 200 miles in diameter, and hurricane-force winds extend out only 30 miles on either side of the eye. Don't get lulled to sleep by these numbers because small geographic size is a good news/bad news proposition. The good news is the worst effects of a small storm don't extend very far; the bad news is that small, compact storms are usually more intense than widespread storms.

Ike is being weakened by some wind shear right now, and that will continue for some time. The storm is expected to weaken to a Cat 2 storm later today and remain a Cat 2 until Sunday. On Sunday, nowever, strengthening is expected to occur as the storm moves into the southern Bahamas, and it should return to Cat 3.

Sunday AM is 48 hours out, and the models are in general agreement that the storm will be somewhere in the southern Bahamas then. What happens after that is anybody's guess at this point.

The official forecast track shows the storm moving between the Bahamas and Cuba, striking the middle part of the Florida Keys Tuesday night, and being in the general area of Naples on Florida's SW coast on Wednesday. IF that occurs (and it is not at all clear at this point), Ike will probably strengthen to a Category 4 storm again prior to hitting the Keys.

However, two things are going on. One is that the whole package of models has moved significantly southward over the last 24 hours. Where we once hoped Ike would recurve out into the North Atlantic, we're now hoping it will stay south. That is a big change.

The other change is that further out than 48 hours, the models basically split into two groups, with one showing recurvature and the other taking Ike SW into Cuba. IF that happens, Ike will likely travel right down the spine of Cuba and will be greatly weakened by the mountains there.

Predicting hurricanes more than 3 days out is always difficult. When the models seperate like these have, it is really seriously unclear where the thing will be 4 days from now.

I know that doesn't help those of you traveling soon, but that's just the way it is. Bottom line: the changes in projected path and models have helped the early part of your trips.

Beyond that, it is too early to tell, and the path could change radically by tomorrow morning. The hurricane is a LONG way from Florida (1,200+ miles) and even a slight change in direction or duration of movement in a particular direction could move the landfall hundreds of miles.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I surely don't wish Ike on the East Coast folks, but I really hate it coming into Naples/Marco Island. But, please, stay away from Louisiana. I'd like a day off before I have to start this over again.

Thanks for the updates, Jim. Keep safe.

 

[em-o-so'smom]

Jim, i can't tell you how much we appreciate your updates.

 

[lundve]

maybe just maybe our flight on WED. will not be affected - we''ll see. . .

Just watching and wondering and thankful for the advice...

 

[newholidayx2]

Flying down on the 16th and staying till the 23rd
Hoping Ike is long gone and the next one has fizzled

Lets keep our fingers crossed - good luck everyone

 

[Raider82]

We are leaving this Sunday (8-7), Ike if it effects FL looks like it will be on Wed, half way through our vacation. Has anyone stayed on property during a hurricane? Or do they make everyone leave? I guess it depends on if its a mandatory or a voluntary evacuation?

 

[dwelty]

We are leaving this Sunday (8-7), Ike if it effects FL looks like it will be on Wed, half way through our vacation. Has anyone stayed on property during a hurricane? Or do they make everyone leave? I guess it depends on if its a mandatory or a voluntary evacuation?

They do not evacuate the property when a hurricane arrives. Actually due to it's location in the middle of the state, WDW is where alot of people go when they have been evacuated from other areas. It is about the safest place in Florida to be during a hurricane. By the time a storm reaches an inland location such as Orlando it has lost alot of it's punch. You will be fine if it comes your way, Just do what Disney tells you to do.

 

[tigger813]

I know they did evacuate during Hurricane Andrew as my brother was on his first vacation to WDW then. He went north and somehow was able to meet up with our sister's in-laws who lived in Miami. They lost their home and rebuilt but now live in VA.

Praying for everyone to have a wonderful and safe trip. We leave 4 weeks from tomorrow!

Tracey

 

[littlestar]

We are leaving this Sunday (8-7), Ike if it effects FL looks like it will be on Wed, half way through our vacation. Has anyone stayed on property during a hurricane? Or do they make everyone leave? I guess it depends on if its a mandatory or a voluntary evacuation?

We were at VWL and our kids were at BWV when Hurricane Jean came through in 2004. All the Disney resorts were locked down so to speak - you were told you needed to stay put inside for your safety. There was a lot of clean-up the next morning - trees down/uprooted and debris everywhere. I think by the afternoon some of the parks had opened back up. We just stayed inside and hunkered down until we were told it was safe to go out. I looked out the window once that night when the hurricane blew through and the trees were blowing straight to the left - a lot different than storms in the midwest, it was just blowing solid with no let up.

A lot of cruise ship passengers were at Wilderness Lodge and we also talked to quite a few locals from the Atlantic coast that came into Orlando to ride out the storm.

 

[Luckymommyx2]

Jim, i can't tell you how much we appreciate your updates.

I definitely agree! Thank you Jim!!

 

[JimMIA]

Is it me or has it been a while since we have had a parade of storms like this?

It's not that unusual to have a series of systems lined up across the Atlantic this time of year. If you stop and think about it, low pressure systems moving westward across the Atlantic are no different that the low pressure fronts we see every week moving eastward across the U.S. I remember a few years ago we had five named storms all lined up in a row all the way across the Atlantic. The satellite wide view of the Atlantic was really interesting to look at...as long as you didn't think too much about what you were viewing.

Once we get into October, the storms should start forming in the Gulf and Caribbean. Those storms usually impact mostly Mexico and the northern Gulf Coast of the US.

One thing that is new this year is the way the NHC display looks on their homepage. They now show all of the systems, not just named storms, so it may look busier than it really is.

What IS unusual is that we have had five consecutive named storms make landfall in the US: Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, and Hanna. That ties the record (5 other years), so if Ike hits any part of the US, 2008 will hold this dubious record.

If you need any more fascinating but useless information, just let me know!

 

[ellynsoh]

We are leaving Sunday and hope to return on Thursday. We also experienced Charlie at Animal Kingdom Lodge. Disney really knew what to do; we had extra characters, storytellers, a free bag dinner-and then they told us to hole up in our rooms until further notice. It was fascinating to watch the process. The hard part, however, was trying to get our flight the next day. The airport suspended all flights after we had waited in line for three hours to check in. Luckily, we were able to find a hotel room near the airport (the hotel had a few rooms destroyed by the storm, and their power was out, but we heard many stranded passengers calling for rooms and being turned away), We flew out of Tampa the following day.
I'm not really sure why we decided to try hurricane season again, but we are hoping for the best!

 

[fireside1868]

Jim

Thanks for all the info. We made to Orlando last night without a drop of rain that we were so worried about. Im leaving WDW monday and going to PCBeach what do you think??? The models show a couple of them getting into the gulf and heading towards the upper panhandle. Should I make the trip???

Thanks for all your information


Fireside1868