Hurricane Ike - Heads-up for Texas and LA in post #60

[JimMIA]

Fortunately, Ike is looking like it won't be much of a threat to VB, and probably not to WDW.

At 2 PM, Ike was located north of the Dominican Republic and about 135 miles east of Grand Turk Island. Ike has regained Category 3 strength, after a brief dip into Cat 2, and it now has 115 MPH sustained winds. Ike is being strongly impacted by 25 kt wind shear, so it will be bouncing back and forth between a strong Cat 2 and a weak Cat 3 storm. The storm is moving WSW at about 15 MPH.

The current forecast track calls for Ike to hit the Turks & Caicos Islands and the extreme SE Bahamas on Sunday as a Cat 3 storm, which is a major hurricane. After that, the forecast has changed somewhat from yesterday and the models now show much more consensus about where Ike will go.

It now appears likely that Ike will hit SE Cuba as a Cat 3 storm on Sunday night, pass down the length of Cuba, and exit Cuba as a Cat 1 storm near Havana in NW Cuba on Tuesday morning.

Exactly where Ike hits Cuba will make a big difference. The currently-projected landfall area would just miss the high mountains of extreme SE Cuba.

However, in comparing predictions from yesterday and actual coordinates today, it is apparent that Ike has been a little bit faster and a little bit lower (more to the south) than projections. Actually, the 2 PM coordinates are almost 200 miles west and about 60 miles south of the predicted location at that point in time. What this means in English is that there may be a good chance that Ike will strike the 6,000 foot mountains of the SE tip of Cuba. Obviously, 6,000 foot mountains could really tear Ike up.

IF the storm follows the projected track and passes down the spine of Cuba, it is expected to quickly strengthen back into a Cat 3 hurricane and reach the east-central Gulf of Mexico by Thursday.

 

[Camping Cat]

It is important to remember how much these tracks vary. You never actually see this because of the way the charts are presented, but there is a huge error factor in forecast tracks. For Ike, for example, there is a 260 mile error factor at 4 days and a 350 mile error 5 days out. Just a tiny change in the direction of the storm can mean a hugely different landfall point.

Which is exactly what we constantly repeat to ourselves when Miami is squarely in the middle of the crosshairs like it is right now. Actually, six days out, there is nowhere I'd rather be than precisely in the crosshairs because you can almost guarantee the storm isn't going there!

That's what I kept telling myself with Gustav, but that sucker didn't change its path at all....just kept its relentless track straight to Louisiana! And the 5 day outlook on Ike is scaring the heck out of me!

 

[lauriegs]

so if we're there tues-friday, Orlando won't be getting hurricane conditions? I don't mind some rain - I just don't want to be in a "lock down".

 

[JimMIA]

so if we're there tues-friday, Orlando won't be getting hurricane conditions? I don't mind some rain - I just don't want to be in a "lock down".

You shouldn't be, but I "never say never."

The closest the storm should get to Orlando would be Tuesday and Wednesday, and if it stays exactly on the currently projected track, the eye should not get within 300 miles or so of WDW. Ike is a relatively small storm in geographic size, and tropical storm force winds (>39 MPH) only extend out about 125 miles in the NE quadrant. Hurricane force winds only extend out about 45 miles.

Of course, the storm almost surely will NOT stay precisely on this track! You have to keep in mind that Wednesday is four days from now, and the four-day track variations in this storm have been about 260 miles.

When you look at the 3- and 5-day forecast tracks, the eye of the hurricane could be anywhere within that day's circle. Linked together, those circles become what we call "the cone." Or, as one meterologist calls it, "the cone of uncertanty!"

Long story short, you should be fine, but keep an eye on the storm.

 

[pigletto]

I have subscribed to this thread but just wanted to post a thank you to JimMIA for keeping us all updated.

 

[aclov]

We leave in a few hours and I have a panicky family who is stating that we should cancel because the governor has issued a announcement for the entire state to evacuate

I've gone before in sept and have been lucky, I this after this I will stay clear away from Hurricane season

 

[AnieT]

We leave on Wednesday morning for WDW and right now we are watching this storm closely!!! UGH I really hope it doesn't make landfall and sort of just stalls in the Gulf, if that happens then everyone will be happy. Boy these storms are getting worse and worse.

Anie

 

[JimMIA]

We leave in a few hours and I have a panicky family who is stating that we should cancel because the governor has issued a announcement for the entire state to evacuate

This is not only just plain FALSE, it's silly.

First of all, nobody would ever evacuate more than 20 million people for a hurricane -- and that is what your family's fears would entail.

Secondly, our default response to hurricanes here is NOT to evacuate. We only evacuate the Florida Keys and barrier islands. Everyone on the mainland stays in place unless they live in very low-lying areas subject to flooding. Evacuation is a complicated, difficult, and dangerous undertaking and we avoid it as much as we can. It's really the "plan" for people who don't have a plan.

Third, evacuating the entire state of Florida for this storm would be equivalent of evacuating the entire state of Indiana because there was bad weather in Texas! That's the kind of distances we are talking about here.

The truth is, all tourists were asked to begin evacuating the Florida Keys yesterday. A mandatory phased evacuation procedure for all residents began this morning at 8 AM, beginning in Key West. At Noon, the middle Keys begin evacuating, and at 4 PM, the upper Keys will begin to move. By nightfall, everyone should be out of the Keys except for emergency workers and a few numbskulls who will probably be in the Monroe County Jail.

NO part of the Florida Keys is expected to experience hurricane conditions. The CLOSEST part of the Florida Keys to WDW will probably not even get tropical storm force conditions -- and it is 270 MILES from WDW.

Tell your family to relax and have a great trip.

 

[JimMIA]

At 11 AM, Hurricane Ike had passed through the Turks & Caicos Islands and was directly over Great Inagua, the southernmost island in the Bahamas. Ike is a Catergory 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 135 MPH and gusts to 160 MPH.

Ike is currently moving just barely south of due west at about 15 MPH. The storm has been projected to turn to the WNW, but the current information indicates Ike will stay on this general path for the next 12 hours.

If that happens, Ike will have significant interaction with the high mountains in SE Cuba and will weaken greatly. Strong hurricanes like Ike have so much energy that they actually wobble. That wobble is clearly visible on the satellite loops of Ike. If Ike wobbles to the left at the ideal time, it could crash directly into the 6,000 foot mountains near Guantanamo, Cuba.

The projected track calls for Ike to strike Cuba's SE region tonight as a Cat 4 storm, weaken, and exit Cuba as a Cat 1 storm in the area of Havana on Tuesday morning.

Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Ike is projected to move WNW to NW and regain Category 3 strength. After moving into the Gulf, Ike's path is extremely unclear. The current 5 day forcast shows Ike heading for East Texas, but the models are all over the place after 3 days. The National Hurricane Center is staying with the two most reliable models, but there is a very large error factor beyond 3 days.

For WDW, it looks like we dodged another bullet. The weather for next week is typical summer Florida weather: temps in the high-80's to low 90's, 50-60% chance of rain/thunderstorms, light winds mostly from the east. Welcome to September in Florida!

 

[FPtigger]

Thank you Jim, I was really getting nervous last week.

 

[Pocahantas]

Glad to see Disney is in the clear but I do not like the current forecast track. I am in south central Louisiana and we just got things back in order after the direct hit from Gustav (and alot of others around here are still without power)! We don't want to deal with another storm right now - IKE PLEASE GO AWAY!!

 

[JimMIA]

Just a quick heads-up for a little perspective. Be prepared for some awful news from Haiti.

Here's a link to an early report in the Miami Herald. It will get much worse than this: http://www.miamiherald.com/582/story/675825.html

 

[Starr W.]

I saw a report that 80% of homes in the Turks&Caicos have suffered damage.

 

[Nursejilly]

I am also in south louisiana, Pocahontas, and we just got power back yesterday after 6 days!! I am hesitant to buy much perishable grocery items because we lost most of our refrigerator contents. I am so grateful to have not had any damage to my house, unlike so many others! GO AWAY, Ike!! It looks like a tornado went through our city! Hope everyone is safe in well in Louisiana!

 

[Camping Cat]

After the nightmare of cleaning out my refrigerator after Katrina, I learned a valuable lesson. Before we evacuated for Gustav, I threw away everything in my refrigerator and freezer. I wasn't going to go through that again! Now, I have a clean (and fresh smelling) slate to start over again.

 

[bobbiwoz]

That's such a hard news article to read about the conditions in Haiti. I hope some relief efforts can help the survivors.

DS and family evacuated for Gustav, just getting back to New Orleans and Houma over the weekend, they have lots of work to do.

Bobbi

 

[erin.w]

What's the report like for this coming weekend?

 

[FJJM0621]

Looks like we'll be goo for our trip. We leave tomorrow am!!

 

[JaxsonsMom]

JIM,

Thanks for all your updates! They have been very helpful over the last few days! We also leave in the AM!


Have a great week everyone!

 

[JimMIA]

I haven't been posting updates because the threat to WDW and VB passed. However, I do want to issue one cautionary note to folks in Texas and Louisiana.

The character of Ike has changed tremendously since it struck Cuba. The storm was formerly a pretty small storm geographically, but very intense. What seemed to happen when it hit the mountains of Cuba is that the storm spread out greatly. It did not maintain it's wind speed, but the storm had tremendous stamina. Even though it was greatly weakened, you could still see solid organization that just wouldn't go away.

Now Ike is a very different storm. Where Ike once had hurricane force winds across a narrow 60-mile front, it now has those winds across a 140 mile front...more than twice as wide. Gale force winds (tropical storm strength) now extend 180 miles on either side - 360 miles across.

That is a very large storm geographically, and this new configuration means Ike doesn't have to get that close to you to cause serious damage and disruption.

Ike is projected to hit Texas as a Category 4 storm (>131 MPH sustained winds). That is a powerful storm.

Also, there is a good bit of divergence in the computer models of this storm, and the most reliable model is an outlier showing the storm hitting in the Galveston area, not in the middle of the Texas coast as the official forecast predicts. Normally, I don't pay too much attention to outliers, but when they are GFS or GFDL, you can't ignore them.

Folks everywhere in Texas, and even in SW Louisiana, need to pay close attention to this dangerous storm.