Hurricane Dorian FINALLY moving - updates pg 10

[Southernmiss]

I understand this is a Disney site, but it may be a little insensitive to put “GOOD NEWS” in the thread title, until this beast is safely out to sea with no landfall.

Thank you. That is what I reacted to with my earlier post.

Orlando is still only 45 miles from the Atlantic ocean. In the scope of a storm like this, that's not very far inland. Lots of dangerous weather is still possible for the area.

People not understanding the magnitude of Hurricanes don't know that dangerous weather is not limited to the shoreline.

 

[schumigirl]

I am so sorry for asking trivial questions when so many are worried about their personal safety.
My son and I are due to fly out for three weeks with BA on Wednesday to meet with my daughter who is just finishing working at Camp Lindenmere in Pennsylvania and is trying to make her way EWR to Orlando (she has JetBlue flights booked on Tuesday, her original scheduled flight which she has held onto, and also on Wednesday, a refundable flight).
Do you think I should book a Newark airport hotel for her on Tuesday and Wednesday, just in case? She is capable and sensible but, well, I am a Mother, I worry.

Also, if our BA flight on Wednesday is delayed, will Alamo at MCO hold onto our hire car until we arrive or treat us as a no show?

Daughter is planning to use DME, so the plan is for me to pick up the car at MCO.

Once I know that my daughter is safely ensconced somewhere, particularly if she can get to AKL, I will be very relieved. In my head AKL in a hurricane is safer than young lady alone in NY.

Stay safe everyone.

Welsh_Dragon we contacted Alamo at MCO last night as we are now coming in on Thursday instead of Tuesday and they said they are honouring all bookings because of the circumstances. So you should be ok with them.
Maybe pop off an email and print it off. We asked them to do that and it arrived at 3am our time.
Good luck with your plans.

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

Welsh_Dragon we contacted Alamo at MCO last night as we are now coming in on Thursday instead of Tuesday and they said they are honouring all bookings because of the circumstances. So you should be ok with them.
Maybe pop off an email and print it off. We asked them to do that and it arrived at 3am our time.
Good luck with your plans.

Thank you. Our horrors seem to be starting before HHN.

 

[js]

Thank you. Our horrors seem to be starting before HHN.

Dont book your dd a hotel in Newark. Or I ahould say I would NOT book my dd a hotel on Newark.

You can book the Hamtpon Inn or Hilton on South Avenue in Staten Island. Its about 20-25 minutes away but much better area (but nothing is around). Also they have a free shuttle to EWR. If you book there and if you can, book the Hilton (they are on the same property) so she doesnt have to walk to the hotel to get food (Hampton she will have to walk to Hilton. Not far but in case you would worry).

I am flying out of EWR on Thursday.

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

Dont book your dd a hotel in Newark. Or I ahould say I would NOT book my dd a hotel on Newark.

You can book the Hamtpon Inn or Hilton on South Avenue in Staten Island. Its about 20-25 minutes away but much better area (but nothing is around). Also they have a free shuttle to EWR. If you book there and if you can, book the Hilton (they are on the same property) so she doesnt have to walk to the hotel to get food (Hampton she will have to walk to Hilton. Not far but in case you would worry).

I am flying out of EWR on Thursday.

Thank you.

 

[JimMIA]

SATURDAY (!) 8 AM info

Well, well, well...look at that! Dorian has continued its rightward shift, which greatly reduces the danger to the WDW area. It's even possible that Dorian doesn't make landfall at all in Florida.

That said, Orlando WILL have some weather, and Dorian WILL still disrupt travel plans. And, Dorian is a dangerous major hurricane. It's a category 4 storm with maximum SUSTAINED winds of 145 mph, and gusts of more than 165 mph -- and it's expected to remain a Category 4 storm for 4-5 more days.

Here's the Friday 8 AM forecast track:



And now the BAD news:

Not really BAD news, but some caveats and precautionary notes.

• If you don't remember anything else about tropical systems and forecasts, remember this: a storm is NOT a dot on a map.
  • First of all...the cone of uncertainty. The cone depicted on the map is the area within which the center of the storm is expected to be at any given time. That's based on thousands of bits of information processed through hundreds of computer projections. In the case of Dorian, there is great confidence about the path through Labor Day when it will hit the Abacos and Grand Bahama (Freeport) in the Northern Bahamas. After 3 days, there is less certainty, although really strong storms like Dorian are more predictable because they make some of their own weather.
  • Second -- intensity. A few days ago, Dorian was a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. This morning, Dorian is a major mid-level Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds (meaning measured continuously for more than one minute at a time) of 145 mph, and gusts over 165 mph. So, even ignoring water damage (which is actually the biggest threat), Dorian is capable of causing catastrophic damage with wind alone.
  • Third -- wind field. On the NHC map, for the current location, the wind field is shown. Hurricane force winds (>74 mph) are shown in red and tropical storm winds (39-73 mph) are shown in orange.
  • Fourth -- water. Water is more complicated and dangerous, but there is less info. I'm going to talk about water issues in the next post.

 

[JimMIA]

A word about water

Water is the most dangerous aspect of hurricanes, as we saw in New Orleans after Katrina and have seen numerous times in the Carolinas, AL, MS, TX and the Florida Panhandle.

Water problems come from three factors:

Rain. Hurricanes are tropical systems, they draw their strength from water, and they dump a LOT of water. That water has to go somewhere, and it flows downhill...which eventually means out to sea. Waterways have capacities, and especially in low-lying coastal areas those capacities are overloaded and massive flooding occurs. Here's the rainfall prediction -- lots of rain, probably > 4 inches in Orlando:



Tides. In coastal areas, it matters greatly whether the hurricane hits during low tide or high tide. At high tide, the starting point for your troubles is considerably higher than at low tide.

Storm surge. Hurricanes exert massive downward pressure on the ocean, lowering the sea level underneath the hurricane. That water has to go somewhere, so it is pushed away from the center of the storm. The storm is also moving, so a storm surge is pushed out ahead of the actual storm. Storm surges can exceed 10 feet.

So if you're on a beach, look at the ocean and then imagine the water level 10 feet higher. In most places, that overflows the coastal dunes and floods the areas just off the coast. Storm surges also block the flow of rainfall runoff and cause massive interior flooding like we saw in the Carolinas in recent storms.

"I'll have the combo..."

So...our current situation is this --

• lots of rain
• storm surge will occur, but it's too early to predict where, when, and how much
• and just to make life a little more interesting, the Atlantic coast is currently in the phenomenon of "King Tides" when high tides are much higher than normal.

 

[Southernmiss]

It's Saturday, not Friday

Friday 8 AM info

Well, well, well...look at that! Dorian has continued its rightward shift, which greatly reduces the danger to the WDW area. It's even possible that Dorian doesn't make landfall at all in Florida.

That said, Orlando WILL have some weather, and Dorian WILL still disrupt travel plans. And, Dorian is a dangerous major hurricane. It's a category 4 storm with maximum SUSTAINED winds of 145 mph, and gusts of more than 165 mph -- and it's expected to remain a Category 4 storm for 4-5 more days.

Here's the Friday 8 AM forecast track:

View attachment 431346

And now the BAD news:

Not really BAD news, but some caveats and precautionary notes.

• If you don't remember anything else about tropical systems and forecasts, remember this: a storm is NOT a dot on a map.
  • First of all...the cone of uncertainty. The cone depicted on the map is the area within which the center of the storm is expected to be at any given time. That's based on thousands of bits of information processed through hundreds of computer projections. In the case of Dorian, there is great confidence about the path through Labor Day when it will hit the Abacos and Grand Bahama (Freeport) in the Northern Bahamas. After 3 days, there is less certainty, although really strong storms like Dorian are more predictable because they make some of their own weather.
  • Second -- intensity. A few days ago, Dorian was a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. This morning, Dorian is a major mid-level Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds (meaning measured continuously for more than one minute at a time) of 145 mph, and gusts over 165 mph. So, even ignoring water damage (which is actually the biggest threat), Dorian is capable of causing catastrophic damage with wind alone.
  • Third -- wind field. On the NHC map, for the current location, the wind field is shown. Hurricane force winds (>74 mph) are shown in red and tropical storm winds (39-73 mph) are shown in orange.
  • Fourth -- water. Water is more complicated and dangerous, but there is less info. I'm going to talk about water issues in the next post.

It's Saturday, not Friday.

 

[JimMIA]

Saturday 11 AM



And...yet again...the path has shifted a little more to the right (away from Florida).

That said, everybody say a prayer for our neighbors in the Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northern Bahamas. They are going to get slammed by a very slow-moving, extremely powerful hurricane.

Also, for folks in the Orlando area, don't get carried away with the storm track. Orlando is going to get some nasty weather -- the only question is how bad.

 

[JimMIA]

It's Saturday, not Friday


It's Saturday, not Friday.

LOL...thanks! I should have my coffee BEFORE posting, I guess!

 

[joelkfla]

As of Sat 11am, for Orlando:

• Probability of TS force winds in Orlando is still 67%
• Probability of Hurricane force winds in Orlando is down to 15% (about 1 in 7)
• TS winds are most likely between 8am Monday & 8am Wednesday
• Hurricane force winds, if they occur, are likely only between 8am Tuesday & 8am Wednesday
• There is essentially no likelihood of TS or Hurricane winds beyond 8am Wednesday (probability = 1%)

Rainfall forecast thru 8am Thursday is 5" for Orlando; 4" for WDW area.

 

[sanibellife]

joelkfla,

Thanks for posting this info. So with these types of winds would you assume MCO would be closed until Wednesday?

 

[kaytieeldr]

Do you think I should book a Newark airport hotel for her on Tuesday and Wednesday, just in case? She is capable and sensible but, well, I am a Mother, I worry.

it can't hurt to book a danceable hotel room directly through the hotel, and he aware of the cancellation rules.

Can 't help with Alamo. Maybe see if the website has any storm alerts?

 

[JimMIA]

As of Sat 11am, for Orlando:

• Probability of TS force winds in Orlando is still 67%
• Probability of Hurricane force winds in Orlando is down to 15% (about 1 in 7)
• TS winds are most likely between 8am Monday & 8am Wednesday
• Hurricane force winds, if they occur, are likely only between 8am Tuesday & 8am Wednesday
• There is essentially no likelihood of TS or Hurricane winds beyond 8am Wednesday (probability = 1%)

Rainfall forecast thru 8am Thursday is 5" for Orlando; 4" for WDW area.

Right. There probably is going to be plenty of bad weather in Orlando. The question is NOT if, but when and how bad.

Dorian is currently predicted to basically stall over the Northern Bahamas (Abacos and Grand Bahama) Sunday and Monday, and then turn north. It looks like they are going to get pounded by 145 mph winds for about 48 hours, if you can imagine that.

Up to the northern Bahamas, the tracks and timing are pretty consistent, and there is considerable confidence that the storm will turn right (north). The question is when. If it turns early, like before the Abacos, it will likely recurve out to sea and may not even make landfall in the US. If it proceeds through the northern Bahamas and then turns, it could make landfall somewhere on the Florida coast, or further north.

The current NHC forecast track is along the western edge of the consensus computer model guidance. So it's a conservative prediction (as it should be) -- a worst case scenario as it stands right now.

But this is a hurricane, and that could change.

 

[lorenae]

I think the "good news" should be removed from the title of the thread- as it definitely may have less impact on WDW than we thought, but we still have hundreds of thousands of people who will be impacted severely (Abacos, Grand Bahama, and maybe the US) and it seems like we should be mindful of that.
Maybe "Update- storm impacts less for WDW!" would be more appropriate.
I think my house is safe from high winds of the hurricane, but definitely an issue with any storm surge, heavy rainfall, etc.

 

[JimMIA]

I think the "good news" should be removed from the title of the thread- as it definitely may have less impact on WDW than we thought, but we still have hundreds of thousands of people who will be impacted severely (Abacos, Grand Bahama, and maybe the US) and it seems like we should be mindful of that.
Maybe "Update- storm impacts less for WDW!" would be more appropriate.
I think my house is safe from high winds of the hurricane, but definitely an issue with any storm surge, heavy rainfall, etc.

Please feel free to do the research, start your own thread, and use whatever words you like.

 

[lorenae]

No, thanks. I just thought I'd try to sort of gently point out how horribly insensitive GOOD NEWS in caps is for so many people who are adversely impacted by the hurricane.

As you yourself mentioned, Abacos is likely to get 145 mph winds for 48 hours- or is that the GOOD NEWS?

 

[cruisin5]

No, thanks. I just thought I'd try to sort of gently point out how horribly insensitive GOOD NEWS in caps is for so many people who are adversely impacted by the hurricane.

As you yourself mentioned, Abacos is likely to get 145 mph winds for 48 hours- or is that the GOOD NEWS?

Well, since this is a board for transportation to DISNEY, in Orlando, the updated forecast is good news for ORLANDO and those travelling to/from there.

 

[DisneyDeb83]

No, thanks. I just thought I'd try to sort of gently point out how horribly insensitive GOOD NEWS in caps is for so many people who are adversely impacted by the hurricane.

As you yourself mentioned, Abacos is likely to get 145 mph winds for 48 hours- or is that the GOOD NEWS?

You do realize this a discussion about the effects of the hurricane as it relates to Disney World? And those that are reading or posting either live nearby or have a trip planned? So, yes, it is good news for many of us.

I don’t think OP said he wants other people to suffer because of the storm. We all hope it keeps heading east and out into the open ocean.

Thanks Jim for all of the updates, you have helped to keep me less stressed. And I hope everyone stays safe!

 

[Southernmiss]

No, thanks. I just thought I'd try to sort of gently point out how horribly insensitive GOOD NEWS in caps is for so many people who are adversely impacted by the hurricane.

As you yourself mentioned, Abacos is likely to get 145 mph winds for 48 hours- or is that the GOOD NEWS?

Yes. This has been pointed out to the person who started this thread by at least 3 of us. But he won't budge.

Vacations are one thing. Danger to lives is another, even when on a Disney message board.