Hurricane Dorian FINALLY moving - updates pg 10

[CT Yankee]

No, thanks. I just thought I'd try to sort of gently point out how horribly insensitive GOOD NEWS in caps is for so many people who are adversely impacted by the hurricane.

As you yourself mentioned, Abacos is likely to get 145 mph winds for 48 hours- or is that the GOOD NEWS?

I don't think there is a way to "gently" call someone "horribly insensitive."

 

[CT Yankee]

Thanks Jim for all of these updates. Out of all the various weather and news resources available, your posts have been the most informative and concise.

 

[sam_gordon]

No, thanks. I just thought I'd try to sort of gently point out how horribly insensitive GOOD NEWS in caps is for so many people who are adversely impacted by the hurricane.

As you yourself mentioned, Abacos is likely to get 145 mph winds for 48 hours- or is that the GOOD NEWS?

I wonder how many people in Abacos are reading this thread... raise your hands.

It's "knowing your audience". Most people reading here are at Disney, leaving Disney, or heading to Disney or Central Florida in the next couple of days or weeks. Have the storm shift AWAY from Central Florida IS Good News. I would suggest if you take offense at the thread title to put @JimMIA on ignore. Then you won't even see the title. Simple.

 

[JimMIA]

As of Sat 11am, for Orlando:

• Probability of TS force winds in Orlando is still 67%
• Probability of Hurricane force winds in Orlando is down to 15% (about 1 in 7)
• TS winds are most likely between 8am Monday & 8am Wednesday
• Hurricane force winds, if they occur, are likely only between 8am Tuesday & 8am Wednesday
• There is essentially no likelihood of TS or Hurricane winds beyond 8am Wednesday (probability = 1%)

Rainfall forecast thru 8am Thursday is 5" for Orlando; 4" for WDW area.

In a couple of days, the storm will be closer and the NHC will post more detailed predicted windfields for hurricane force, 50 Kt, and tropical storm winds. That's a lot easier to put in perspective and translate into plain English. Right now they just have minimal info that would affect Florida.

I'm also hoping they'll post storm surge expectations because those are serious issues for coastal residents/visitors. I suspect storm surge is going to be a much bigger issue from the Carolinas north, but I'd still like to see the info.

 

[JimMIA]

Saturday 5 PM Update

Actually, nothing has changed since the earlier update...with one small exception. The storm path remains unchanged, and the NHC made no changes in the map except updating the current location. On a broader scale, there has also not been much change in the various computer models since earlier today.

The ONLY change for this update is that, because the storm is a little closer to Florida, a Tropical Storm WATCH has been posted for the coastal area between Deerfield Beach (just south of Boca Raton) and Sebastian Inlet (between Vero Beach and Melbourne) -- shown by yellow highlight. A tropical storm WATCH means that tropical storm force conditions are possible within 48 hours. We're going to see these watches and warnings march their way all the way up the East Coast as Dorian moves north.

Here's the map:



About the only other change is that Dorian has slowed down a little. The storm was moving 11-12 miles an hour, but slowed to 9, and now to 8 mph. There are a couple of good things and one obvious bad thing about slower movement.

Good things:

• When storms slow down, they tend to weaken a bit. However, Dorian has not been roaring along at 15-20 mph to begin with...so a slowing from 11 to 8 is not likely to produce much weakening. Right now, Dorian is at 150 mph (just 7 mph below Category 5), and this should be as strong as the storm gets. It's expected to weaken a little, but not that much.
• The other good thing about this slowing is that it foretells the turn to the north that we are waiting for. As the storm slows to about 5 mph, it is expected to make than right turn. Hopefully that turn will occur before it reaches Great Abaco, but the times in this report do not indicate that.

Bad thing -- obviously slower speed means more time exposed to storm conditions for the people in the storm's path. We're hoping the storm will turn north sooner rather than later, but the data so far does not predict that.

For Cruisers:

I know Disney Cruisers are concerned about Castaway Cay, but few actually know where it is on the map. Unfortunately, it's just off Sandy Point on Great Abaco, as shown on this map. Just one more reason to hope Dorian turns sooner rather than later! Here's where Castaway Cay is:

 

[jakenjess]

Jim, thanks so much for your informative updates. Hoping for a best-case scenario for everyone in Dorian’s path.

We’re scheduled to fly from New England to MCO Thursday morning so are keeping a close eye on the updates. Thanks again!

 

[JimMIA]

I'm not going to post the 8 PM map because it is not much changed from 5 PM, which looked a LOT like 2 PM.

Dorian has moved closer to inhabited areas, so additional notifications have been issued. The northern Bahamas including the Abacos and Grand Bahama have been placed under Hurricane WARNING. Andros, the largest island in the Bahamas and on the west side, has been placed under a hurricane WATCH.

Other than that, it's wait and see for Florida and hope for the best for the Bahamas. No change for the Orlando/WDW area or travel plans.

 

[lorenae]

I wonder how many people in Abacos are reading this thread... raise your hands.

Well, probably no one currently because of the hurricane warnings- but Castaway cay is directly the path and we do have Disney cruise people that do read the forum. They have vacations, etc, planned as well just as those going to WDW.

That was my point- what's good news for all of us is to not affect Florida (or the Bahamas) much at all, but in the meantime we can all hope and pray for the best.

 

[kaytieeldr]

and we do have Disney cruise people that do read the forum.

While true, (a) while are mobile; you can cruise out of the storm path but you can't movie a theme park. And (b) it seems entirely reasonable that cruisers would be getting cruise-pertinent updates on the DCL forum.

 

[sethschroeder]

Let's just get back on the topic of this hurricanes impact to, from, and at WDW.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

Thanks, but it's not that simplistic.

Two consecutive shifts of ALL of the models in the opposite direction they were going, plus two consecutive changes in the NHC forecast track in the same direction means something. They especially mean something when they agree with what the NHC and other sources have been saying for a week about the much bigger picture of the entire Atlantic meteorological landscape that influences the path of the storm.

I simplify things for easier understanding, rather than discussing technical stuff from the NHC and several other sources which have a bearing on the macro forces affecting the movement of the storm. Too much "inside baseball" just confuses people.

Obviously things can and do change. Everybody knows that, and I say it in almost every post.

I'm sure all of our readers are smart enough to realize that hurricane forecasting is an inexact science applied in a fluid situation. I'm confident they won't be led astray

I guess Jim we should be advising people that there is a hurricane coming to FL (by saying FL it covers the whole state and not pin pointing a perticular ) and people

I'm not going to post the 8 PM map because it is not much changed from 5 PM, which looked a LOT like 2 PM.

Dorian has moved closer to inhabited areas, so additional notifications have been issued. The northern Bahamas including the Abacos and Grand Bahama have been placed under Hurricane WARNING. Andros, the largest island in the Bahamas and on the west side, has been placed under a hurricane WATCH.

Other than that, it's wait and see for Florida and hope for the best for the Bahamas. No change for the Orlando/WDW area or travel plans.

I guess the good news is that the 8pm update has not changed. But Jim I was so looking forward to your update. Keep up the good work. Remember no news is good news with Gary Gnew ha ha ha

 

[joelkfla]

Just heard on the local news that MCO has canceled their previously announced closure.

Of course, that does not necessarily mean that individual airlines won't still be cancelling flights.

 

[StageTek]

 

[JimMIA]

SUNDAY 8 AM Update

Four main things to know this morning -- none of them good.

• Overnight Dorian strengthened a little and is now a Category 5 hurricane. Max sustained winds are 160 mph, just above the Cat 5 threshold.
• The storm slowed to 7 mph, which will cause it to weaken back to Cat 4 today. Honestly, there is NO difference between a lower-end Cat 5 and a top-end Cat 4 -- they're both very, very dangerous storms. The Cat 5 designation, however, is an open invitation for the news media to completely lose it and begin hyping the storm to the max. So expect some pretty wild stories and predictions from television personalities.
• The worst news is that the storm is expected to barely move westward today and tomorrow -- so the northern Bahamas are going to get pounded for at least 48 hours. Dorian is going to be basically stationary all day Monday.
• The projected track has changed -- somewhat later progress than we thought yesterday, and a little closer to Florida on its northward sweep. The storm size has also expanded a bit, so Florida (and in particular Orlando) is going to receive more winds than we thought yesterday. Consequently, the tropical storm Watch has been changed to a tropical storm Warning for the area between Deerfield Beach, FL and Sebastian Inlet.

Here's the 8 AM track:



Suggestions:

1. Avoid hysterical TV reports. Local TV meteorologists know what they are talking about and usually refrain from hysterics. Cable news personalities a) don't know much about hurricanes, and b) are going to hype their performance as much as they can. So rely on local folks who do not appear to be foaming at the mouth, and on websites like the NHC and Weather Underground . You'll get more accurate info without the hype.
2. If you are in Orlando, or traveling TO Orlando in the next several days, pay close attention to the hurricane. It's a little early to tell, but it looks like most of the Florida East Coast is going to be experiencing tropical storm conditions most of Tuesday and Wednesday. Orlando is close enough to the coast (+/- 60 miles, depending on where you are) that you are going to have bad weather both days. If you're flying, pay close attention the airport advisories. For example, MCO was going to close Monday morning, now they're not. Look for them to close Tuesday morning instead.
3. Understand the cone of uncertainty. The cone indicates where the center of the storm could be, so don't pay attention to dots and lines. Also know that hurricanes do NOT move in straight lines. If you look at a satellite video loop, you'll see that they wobble left and right as they move forward. That wobbling further expands the areas where we might expect to have a certain level of wind.
4. Pay attention to tides and storm surge if you are on or near the coast -- OR if you are on a river near the coast. There is no storm surge info up yet, but there will be a surge and it's going to come during a period of King Tides. That could inundate some coastal areas, and it could also back up rivers and prevent them from emptying into the ocean.

As I said earlier, everyone say a prayer for the people in the Bahamas, and keep an eye on this storm.

 

[JimMIA]

Sunday 11 AM Advisory

First of all, Dorian is no longer a minimal Cat 5 storm (if there is such a thing, which I doubt!). Dorian now has sustained winds of 175 mph.

The storm has slowed slightly and expected to continue to slow down over the next few hours. That slowing, plus interaction with the limited land mass of the northern Bahamas will reduce Dorian back to a strong Cat 4 storm.

Watches/warnings:
The storm is moving almost due west now, and therefore gets closer to Florida. So at each advisory now, we can expect new watches and warnings and also for the watch/warning areas to move.

Hurricane WATCH: Deerfield Beach to the Brevard/Volusia County line
Surge WATCH: also Deerfield Beach to the Brevard/Volusia County line

Tropical Storm WARNING: Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet
Tropical Storm WATCH: Dade/Broward line to Deerfield Beach, plus Lake Okeechobee

The map is essentially unchanged from 8 AM, but I'm posting it because it depicts the new watches/warnings. Here's the latest map:


Where can we expect tropical storm force winds?
This is totally UNscientific -- and from me, not the NHC or any competent meteorologist -- but when you look at the white portion of the cone, that is not a bad representation of where we might expect winds of 39 mph or more. Not scientific, but a decent ballpark zone.

On this map, Orlando is in, or right on the edge, of that UNscientific zone on Tuesday.

 

[Future_WorldPhonencian]

Another resource to help out (mods if this is inapporpriate please remove) Google Maps has included a juxtaposed map of Dorians location.

Hurricane Dorian Tracker

This is useful for drivers both before and after the storm (PLEASE STAY OFF THE ROAD AND SEEK SHELTER DURING THE STORM) Google Maps does a decent job of marking road closures in real time. Also stay keyed in to Florida Department of Transit website especially if you were originally planning to use I95. Any highway closures will be listed in both places.

Florida DOT

If you are driving down into Florida within a week after the storm passes give yourself extra time and use caution. Be prepared to use alternative routes as I95 in Florida and Georgia can and will be impacted as it is near the coast.

 

[JimMIA]

Another resource to help out (mods if this is inapporpriate please remove) Google Maps has included a juxtaposed map of Dorians location.

Very helpful, and it's nice to see someone making positive contributions! Thanks.

If you are driving down into Florida within a week after the storm passes give yourself extra time and use caution. Be prepared to use alternative routes as I95 in Florida and Georgia can and will be impacted as it is near the coast.

AND...the Carolinas.

Both North and South Carolina have several rivers feeding into the ocean, and the combination of heavy rain inland, tides, and storm surge (which will be greater there than in Florida) are likely to back those rivers up and cause extensive flooding.

That's what we saw with Florence, and will see again with Dorian.

 

[DisneyDeb83]

We have a flight out of PHL at 5:40 am Friday morning. I was thinking we would be in the clear for MCO to be open by our 8 am arrival, but the way this storm is going I’m not so sure.
Southwest has not extended its no fee changes to Friday, which I’m thinking is a good sign. But, I was debating whether to book a separate Saturday afternoon flight just in case, as it seems availability is decreasing. We are taking another trip in January, so I figure I can just rebook the Saturday flight for then if we are able to get out on Friday. And if southwest ends up allowing changes on Friday, I can just adjust to a Saturday flight and have the credit for January. Does this make sense? I just don’t want to have trouble getting a nonstop on Saturday.
That being said, I hope the storm speeds up and leaves the Bahamas asap. Very scary for everyone down there!

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

We have a flight out of PHL at 5:40 am Friday morning. I was thinking we would be in the clear for MCO to be open by our 8 am arrival, but the way this storm is going I’m not so sure.
Southwest has not extended its no fee changes to Friday, which I’m thinking is a good sign. But, I was debating whether to book a separate Saturday afternoon flight just in case, as it seems availability is decreasing. We are taking another trip in January, so I figure I can just rebook the Saturday flight for then if we are able to get out on Friday. And if southwest ends up allowing changes on Friday, I can just adjust to a Saturday flight and have the credit for January. Does this make sense? I just don’t want to have trouble getting a nonstop on Saturday.
That being said, I hope the storm speeds up and leaves the Bahamas asap. Very scary for everyone down there!

Shows the storm in the Carolina's and Virginia come the end of the week so MCO will be open. SWA will be able to fly around the storm in the Carolina's You should have nothing to worry about as far as getting to MCO on Friday

 

[JimMIA]

Seems to me there is more likely to be a storm impact at PHL on Friday, and definitely on SAT, than at MCO.