Hurricane Dennis

[goofy!]

I know this is a bit premature to start thinking about, but since they just announced on our news that Dennis will likely be a hurricane by this evening, I thought I would ask if the Orlando people are at all concerned yet. Edited to add that Dennis is now officially a hurricane.

There are a couple of large threads starting on the DVC and community boards that have some people worried that the radar pics look a bit too close to Charley's for comfort. So, what do you the Universal locals think? Heavy rain this weekend? Wind? Hurricane?

Looking at the 5 day cone on the National Hurricane Center webpage- Orlando is within the outer edges of Dennis' potential 5 day warning zone, although the projected track is to be in the middle of the gulf west of Tampa on Sunday.

I am particularly interested in how the winds & rain, even out that far out in the gulf, might affect flights at MCO. Particularly since we are flying in on Sunday from Denver and the flight path usually takes us over the gulf and Tampa. One year we did have to divert and come in from the northeast. Made for a long flight, so just wanted to get prepared if we have to do that again. Stock up on the coloring books and game boy games for the kids

And I just thought I would start a thread for all you nice folks down there to give us updates if the local people (who have the best feel for this type of stuff) start to get concerned.

Keeping our fingers crossed that Dennis will stay well away from all of you who just went through Charlie!!

 

[mukala]

I have to agree! Here's to hoping that you all who were clobbered last year don't get it so bad this year! : (

(and I'm hoping our Universal vacation will be able to go on as planned...)

 

[Motherfletcher]

We are concerned down here but think the high pressure area will push it south of us and way south of Orlando.

 

[goofy!]

Thanks MotherFletcher!

Keep us informed!

We left RPR last year on 8/11 -the day before Charley. I still remember the disbelief over all the people who were flying in to MCO that day - right into a projected hurricane. We certainly wouldn't want to be one of those tourist families that put more strain on the Florida families who need to secure their home and families and not have to worry about unprepared tourists. If it so happens that we need to push our vacation back by a day or two, we will.

And all you Pensacola area folks that are also still reeling, hoping it doesn't follow its projected path and come ashore around you guys.

Hoping that high pressure pushes that thing way, way out to the south and west!! Or better yet, it just fizzles out in the gulf.

 

[SamanthaR]

I think it's hard to say yet where Dennis is heading but a lot of the forecasters think it will take the same path up like Charley did.

Even though central Florida, does not take a direct hit with Dennis, I'm pretty sure there will be some effects from it like a lot of rain and some flooding just like the three hurricanes did in September.

I'm supposed to be at a family reunion this weekend in Sarasota and staying at a hotel on the beach. I was REALLY looking forward to this for months and just having a nice family weekend getaway. Now I'm thinking, I might have to cancel and may have to pay a cancellation penalty. I called the front desk and in cases like this, this is an event beyond your control, so there is no cancellation fee. We'll probably have a good idea where this hurricane will be headed by Friday 7/8.

Now I hope my plans for my Universal vacation at the end of this month don't fall through!

 

[silverangel879]

Did somebody travel after hurricane Charley?

 

[Universal FReak]

I am not worried about any of the predicted hurricanes too much. As long as they don't get stronger than charley or any of the other hurricanes that we had last year. You'll still probably find me at universal or trying to get in on the day of the hurricane.

 

[goofy!]

MotherFletcher was right - updated model pushes Dennis Southwest. Looks like Orlando is in the clear.

But anybody in the path - stay safe!

 

[tycon07]

MotherFletcher was right - updated model pushes Dennis Southwest. Looks like Orlando is in the clear.

But anybody in the path - stay safe!

Thank Goodness!! I will be flying into MCO Tuesday Morning! I bet there will be a little turbulence on that flight. Everyone in the path of the storm is in my prayers. I know alot of people down south don't need the rain, but in South Central Illinois, we are in a severe drought. (Maybe I can take some dry weather down to Florida when we go next week)

 

[Universal FReak]

Yeah my brother is flying in to orlando airport in 3 days. I hope we don't get too much rain from the up coming hurricanes. During the whole month of June I think there were about 5 or 6 days that we didn't get rain. Oh well it's not like I can stop it.

 

[Flyfly_Eclipse]

They are predicting the FL Panhandle and Alabama to get the possible direct hit...but I'm SURE we'll still get some soggy conditions They are thinking it will be a similar path to Ivan (last I heard)...and at LEAST a low category 3...whoever gets hit is going to have their share of a MESS! Stay safe everybody who may get effects from the storm!!

SamanthaR - do you have family in Sarasota then, or is that just a nice reunion spot? Might sound like a silly question, but my family used to do reunions at Anna Maria Island like a decade ago..lol. I live just south of Sarasota.

 

[Motherfletcher]

A friend from our Emergency Operations Center brought over a forecast that still has Naples in the cone of uncertainy but it looks like we are going to dodge the bullet. That will still mean a lousy weekend with gusts to 40 and possible buckets of rain.

 

[Universal FReak]

I'll still be at universal. Nothing can stop me from going there(except for park security of course) but still I have gone to universal and IOA on days when the park is almost empty because so much rain is coming down. What you should do is just pick an indoor ride and just keep going on it.

 

[SamanthaR]

They are predicting the FL Panhandle and Alabama to get the possible direct hit...but I'm SURE we'll still get some soggy conditions They are thinking it will be a similar path to Ivan (last I heard)...and at LEAST a low category 3...whoever gets hit is going to have their share of a MESS! Stay safe everybody who may get effects from the storm!!

SamanthaR - do you have family in Sarasota then, or is that just a nice reunion spot? Might sound like a silly question, but my family used to do reunions at Anna Maria Island like a decade ago..lol. I live just south of Sarasota.

Flyfly Eclipse, my sister and her in-laws live down in Sarasota, we're staying on Longboat Key. I've got a lot of family flying down from Illinois. Don't you think it's really pretty down there compared to Clearwater Beach? I have a feeling this is going to be a lousy beach weekend. Yuk!

 

[Motherfletcher]

Flyfly Eclipse, my sister and her in-laws live down in Sarasota, we're staying on Longboat Key. I've got a lot of family flying down from Illinois. Don't you think it's really pretty down there compared to Clearwater Beach? I have a feeling this is going to be a lousy beach weekend. Yuk!

It might be a great weekend for shelling. We went to Lover's Key after last year's hurricanes and there were shells that I'd never seen before. Alot were still alive.

 

[silverangel879]

I'm just wandering how was FL after this to hurricanes...I'll be there in July 25th and want to have an Idea of my probabilities of having to cancel my trip or something. I know it sounds a little to soon but just to have an idea.


Thanks!


PS. First Time to Orlando----->Newbie Stress

 

[goofy!]

I don't think you have anything to worry about for the 25th - unless another storm brews between now and then. I remember reading the boards after Charley that the parks were open the next day.

We are flying in on Sunday (should be a fun flight from Denver into Orlando) and as of now we have no plans to cancel or postpone. If it rains on Sunday, we will just enjoy that Villa Suite upgrade. According to the reports, the storm should be well north by Monday morning.

Stay safe everybody!!

 

[goofy!]

This is an update from the DVC Community Board. This guy is posting updates every few hours. I would post the link to the thread, but my brain is already on vacation and I have temporarily forgotten how to link to another thread

But here is his latest update:

11 AM, Thursday, July 7 Advisory/Discussion Update
NOT Good News:
Hurricane Dennis has moved to a northwesterly track sooner than expected and NHC has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Florida Keys, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the rest of the southern tip of the Florida peninsula, including Miami-Dade and Collier Counties.

The high pressure ridge which was holding Dennis to the south was either not as strong as NHC thought, or it has begun to weaken sooner than they thought it would. It would not take much further deterioration in that ridge to bring the hurricane directly into South Florida.

The Orlando/WDW area is barely outside the 3-day cone at this time.

The hurricane currently has 105 mph sustained winds with gusts higher, which makes Dennis a strong Category 2 hurricane. Dennis is expected to strengthen to a Category 3 hurricane within 24 hours, with winds in the 115-120 range. The timing of that intensification will depend largely on how much the storm interacts with the mountainous areas of Cuba, but major storm status appears to be a question of when, rather than if.

It is important to remember that a hurricane is not a point on the globe; it is a very large area of disturbed weather.

Dennis is still early in the development process, but it is already several hundred miles wide. Tropical storm force winds currently occur in a 195 mile wide swath around the center of the storm and heavy rains extend much farther. A hurricane is always strongest in the 12-3 o'clock quadrant (often called the northeast quadrant because hurricanes tend to move generally northward), and it is that area which will rake the Gulf Coast of Florida, and possibly well inland, if the storm passes offshore.


If you want the latest accurate information, turn OFF the TV and go to www.nhc.noaa.gov

That's the National Hurricane Center, and they don't sell Viagra.

 

[silverangel879]

Thanks, Goofy!
I'm a little more calm now, but still tracking the system. The 5pm report is available: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/072040.shtml?

Safe trip to all of you that are traveling this weekend...Best Wishes, a ton of Pixie dust and all my prayers!!!!!

 

[texasgander]

We leave here (Houston) tomorrow (Friday) at noon to head that way! We will spend the night in Mobile......get to Orlando Saturday afternoon.......I hope we are not totally rained out! We are supposed to do a dolphin cruise Monday at Clearwater Beach, and then Universal on Tuesday..................