Hurricane DEAN

[JimMIA]

Even if you don't flood, it is not much fun staying home without electricity (esp, a/c). It happens, especially with the above ground electrical lines.

Tell me about it. When Hurricane Wilma hit South Florida in 2005, our power company (Florida Power & Light) had 5 MILLION customers without electricity. That's customers, NOT people -- some of those customers were businesses and apartment/condo complexes affecting thousands of people each. Some of them were dark for 3-4 weeks.

My favorite memory during that period was one power pole along US 41 west of Miami. The wires were still intact. But the pole was so old, so poorly maintained, so rotten, that the only part of the pole remaining was about 10-15 feet off the ground, being held in place by the wires! The pole wasn't holding the wires up -- it was gone. The wires were holding up about a six-foot section of the pole, ten feet off the ground!

I wonder if Houston is going to evacuate again like they did for Rita. The traffic getting out of town was worse there than the evacuation from New Orleans for Katrina.

The operative concept in those scenarios is this: people die during evacuations who would not have died had they stayed home. There are situations where you have no alternative but to try to evacuate, but it's a long way from a perfect option.

 

[Simba's Mom]

These are all good points Jim. In addition, model results can vary considerably from run to run. For example, one model predicted landfall of TD4 at Brownsville in its initial run. The next run of the same model predicted landfall in New England. As you pointed out, forecast track prediction is unreliable after 3 days, and can even vary considerably inside 3 days. The NHC official forecast track represents a synthesis of forecasts from a number of different models, adjusted by the forecasters' subjective judgements. Intensity forecast is even more problematic than track forecast.

Gee, we live in the Brownsville area-let's hope that first prediction is wrong. We don't need a CAT 4 hurricane here-no one does ANYWHERE! Pray for it to fizzle.

 

[kimberh]

Louisiana's Governor has just issued a State of Emergency. Hurricane Dean is a 145 mph Cat 4 at this time. Pressure is 935mb. The Weather Channel is saying Dean could become a Cat 5 as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. We all need to Pray.

 

[Camping Cat]

I made our reservations at a hotel in Hattiesburg for next week. It was hard to find a place that still had openings! I'm just hoping we don't have to use them!

 

[snappy]

I need to get my son back up here from New Orleans to Baton Rouge pronto. We called him last night and told him to fill up his gas tank. A nineteen year old does not think of these things.

 

[snappy]

Tell me about it. When Hurricane Wilma hit South Florida in 2005, our power company (Florida Power & Light) had 5 MILLION customers without electricity. That's customers, NOT people -- some of those customers were businesses and apartment/condo complexes affecting thousands of people each. Some of them were dark for 3-4 weeks.

My favorite memory during that period was one power pole along US 41 west of Miami. The wires were still intact. But the pole was so old, so poorly maintained, so rotten, that the only part of the pole remaining was about 10-15 feet off the ground, being held in place by the wires! The pole wasn't holding the wires up -- it was gone. The wires were holding up about a six-foot section of the pole, ten feet off the ground!

One of our neighbors and her husband work for our power company. Her husband is actually a lineman. He spent months in New Orleans getting those poles back up. She really had some wild stories. The ground was so saturated (poor soil in the area anyway), that the poles just sank into the muck when they tried to place them. It was needless to say an extremely drawn out and dangerous process. I have forgotten how many workers died in the effort. He lived down there for the duration, either in a cheapo hotel room or in the tent cities they used.

 

[snappy]

What month did Wilma hit south Florida in 2005, was it before Katrina?

 

[snappy]

I made our reservations at a hotel in Hattiesburg for next week. It was hard to find a place that still had openings! I'm just hoping we don't have to use them!

I wonder if there are any reservations in the Baton Rouge area still available.
I need to start calling the relatives.

 

[mom2rb]

My dad lives in the south/east side of Houston, right on the Bay. I live in the far, west part of Houston. So our game plan is, Cat. 3-4, my parents, little brothers and their dog come stay with me next week. If it is a Cat. 5, then we all head up to my brother's house in Austin. Then my brother will end up with 8 adults, 3 kids, and 5 dogs

 

[snappy]

Hi ya, mom2rb. I think we rented points from you to stay at OKW Mardi Gras 2005.

We are owners too now at BWV via resale.

I was in Houston for Hilda (not sure what year but a very very long time ago.)
Stay safe.

Did you evcuate for Rita?

The computer models do look like Dean is heading more south and west. So much can change in a 5 day period.

I remember when Katrina was a cat 1 and threatening the east side of Florida. I was on a miniholiday on the coast at the Oasis, one of the casinoes in Gulfport (we were there for the pool and the lazy river) on the Friday before Katrina came in on Monday, not a care in the world.

That lazy river is history. I don't think they are going to rebuild it. I THINK the hotel is redone, I am sure the casino is operating (of course).

 

[Claire L]

What month did Wilma hit south Florida in 2005, was it before Katrina?

Wilma was a while after Katrina as W is quite near the end of the alphabet.

Take care if you are in the path of Dean.

Claire

 

[Deb & Bill]

What month did Wilma hit south Florida in 2005, was it before Katrina?

Think alphabet. K comes before W, Rita came before Wilma. Rita was in late Sept. Wilma was probably about early Oct. After those came Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta. That was some year.

 

[Claire L]

Think alphabet. K comes before W, Rita came before Wilma. Rita was in late Sept. Wilma was probably about early Oct. After those came Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta. That was some year.

Just checked and Wilma formed around Oct 13th and left about Oct 26th. Yes 2005 broke all records as the alphabet got used up and they had to go to the Greek alphabet.

Claire

 

[snappy]

I should have caught the alphabet thing myself. I guess it is too early and I have not enough caffeine yet.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I should have caught the alphabet thing myself. I guess it is too early and I have not enough caffeine yet.

You need to pull out the Community.

 

[snappy]

You need to pull out the Community.

I used the medium, I shoulda gone with dark roast.

 

[JimMIA]

What month did Wilma hit south Florida in 2005, was it before Katrina?

Katrina hit South Florida, between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami, on 8/25/05 as a Cat 1 storm. It made an immediate 90 degree left turn and went south across all of Dade County and out into the Gulf of Mexico. In the Gulf, Katrina eventually strengthened to a Cat 5 briefly and then settled down to a Cat 3, which is what it was when it hit New Orleans on 8/29.

Wilma developed in the Gulf (actually I believe in the Bay of Campeche off Mexico) and moved NE. At one point, it was a Cat 5 with the lowest barometric pressure (= strength) ever measured in a hurricane. Fortunately, it declined in strength to a Cat 3 before hitting South Florida south of Naples on 10/24/05. Wilma was so large, and had such a large eye, that when it was over the Everglades moving across the state, virtually everywhere south of Orlando was covered by the storm and most places got some part of the eyewall.

 

[JimMIA]

The Weather Channel is saying Dean could become a Cat 5 as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

Acccording to the NHC, Dean will be a Cat 5 tonight -- not 3-4 days from now. It's going to hit Jamaica, Grand Cayman, and probably the Yucatan as a Cat 5.

Once it gets into the Gulf, it should lose strength, not gain strength.

 

[snappy]

Katrina hit South Florida, between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami, on 8/25/05 as a Cat 1 storm. It made an immediate 90 degree left turn and went south across all of Dade County and out into the Gulf of Mexico. In the Gulf, Katrina eventually strengthened to a Cat 5 briefly and then settled down to a Cat 3, which is what it was when it hit New Orleans on 8/29.

Wilma developed in the Gulf (actually I believe in the Bay of Campeche off Mexico) and moved NE. At one point, it was a Cat 5 with the lowest barometric pressure (= strength) ever measured in a hurricane. Fortunately, it declined in strength to a Cat 3 before hitting South Florida south of Naples on 10/24/05. Wilma was so large, and had such a large eye, that when it was over the Everglades moving across the state, virtually everywhere south of Orlando was covered by the storm and most places got some part of the eyewall.

Gosh, I thought Katrina had the lowest pressure at one point. I guess I was not watching Wilma much at the time.

The year of 2005 as far as hurricanes go was one for the record books.

 

[JimMIA]

Dean is a strong Cat 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 MPH and gusts to 185 MPH. The bad news is Dean has slowed down from moving west at 20-24 MPH to about 15 MPH, which will facilitate strengthening. Dean is right on the edge of being a Cat 5 now, so expect the category descriptions to bounce back and forth between 4 and 5 until the storm clears Jamaica.

The current forecast track takes Dean over Jamaica, Grand Cayman, and the tip of the Yucatan peninsula. That forecast track has been quite steady for two days now and all the computer models are in general agreement...which, of course, could change in the next half-hour.

Dean will strengthen to a Cat 5 storm tonight and will hit Jamaica on Sunday with sustained winds of 157 MPH and gusts to 191. The mountains of Jamaica will weaken the storm to a Cat 4 as it passes over.

However, as soon as Dean gets past Jamaica, it moves into the warmest water in the Caribbean and will again strengthen to Cat 5 and stay there. It will hit Grand Cayman and the Yucatan as a Cat 5. There is nothing on Grand Cayman which will disrupt the storm at all, so current projections show the storm hitting the Yucatan with sustained winds of 162 MPH and gusts close to 200.

Once Dean emerges into the Gulf, it is projected to weaken to a Cat 3 storm. The forecast track and all but one of the models show Dean making landfall again in Mexico. One model predicts southern Texas, and no models are currently showing the storm anywhere near Louisana.