Wow, this is quite the thread! Give me a couple of hours to go through these posts, and I should have the touring plan posted Monday evening. I'll assume a family of 4 with no other special needs.
Disneyjunkie, as you'd imagine, we get touring plan requests from every type of Disney visitor. That includes single parents, grandparents, parents of "special needs" children, expectant mothers and everything in between.
We use both research team members and volunteers to test the touring plans. We usually post requests for volunteers here, on Rec.Arts.Disney.Parks, and on Deb Wills' AllEars newsletter. We do our best to try "double blind" the touring plan tests, where we don't know which plan the volunteers are getting, and they don't know either. We usually pay for lunch for the volunteers, too, in case anyone is interested in participating.
We usually spend the spring months testing new touring plans against the existing plans. For example, we tested new Epcot and Animal Kingdom touring plans in March, April and May of this year. Look for new Epcot plans in the 2004 edition, and a "tweaked" version of the Animal Kingdom plan as well.
We also test the touring plans against control groups. For example, we've tested the One-Day Magic Kingdom Touring Plan for Adults against people with no touring plan, and against Disney veterans (50+ trips, minimum) who were allowed to modify the plan as they thought best. We compared each group to someone who started at the same time and simple followed the touring plan in the order shown.
People without touring plans fare poorly, as you might imagine. Many are not able to see all of the attractions listed.
The closest anyone's ever come to equaling the touring plan is a group of Disney veterans (50+ trips) who had only one extra hour of waiting in line. That is, they finished in about 12 hours something the control group finished in about 11. The veterans had a copy of the touring plan, but were allowed to modify the sequence in any way they wanted. They ended up splitting into teams (no kidding) to survey FASTPASS booths to see which would give them the most benefit. It's not something that typical families could do, and they still ended up waiting an hour more than they would have had they simply followed the touring plan, but that's the closest anyone's come.
Hope this helps. Again, I'll be posting the touring plan this evening. In the meantime, feel free to ask any questions.
Sincerely,
Len