How would a GFV affect resale BLT prices?

[WDWFERN]

So, with all the speculation about a possible GFV being in the works, I am curious as to what other's thoughts are on how this proposed project might influence the resale market for BLT down the road if at all.

 

[gkrykewy]

BLT resale prices are going to gradually decline anyway, so...

 

[Buckeye Fan]

BLT resale prices are going to gradually decline anyway, so...

Completely agree. Have the history of other resorts to show for it. However, how low they drop will depend on how aggressive DVC is on ROFR and at what dollar amount. I am also making the assumption that BLT sells out this spring. If Disney is still selling, I think they will align prices until BLT is sold out.

 

[JimMIA]

I'm not sure how gradually BLT is declining on the resale market.

BLT seems to be selling routinely in the mid to low $90's vs. the new price of $130 per point (or is it $140?). And there has been one reported sale that cleared ROFR at $87.50. No matter how you cut it, $40 or more per point is already a BIG drop for a resort still in active sales.

As others have noted, the biggest influence on BLT resale prices will be ROFR. If Disney does not support resale prices by ROFR, I believe prices will continue to drop...and maybe not so gradually. And obviously DVD is expecting the change in resale points perks to also be somewhat effective in driving customers toward new, direct purchases.

IF there is a Grand Floridian DVC, I think that will certainly hurt BLT resale prices. Disney won't care, because they don't get a penny from resale prices anyway. But I think a GFV would hurt BLT badly simply because BLT would no longer be the ONLY monorail resort.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I'm not sure how gradually BLT is declining on the resale market.

BLT seems to be selling routinely in the mid to low $90's vs. the new price of $130 per point (or is it $140?). And there has been one reported sale that cleared ROFR at $87.50. No matter how you cut it, $40 or more per point is already a BIG drop for a resort still in active sales.

There are many who purchased BLT in the low to mid 90's so with a couple of trips (and having received DP's with the purchase) it really isn't a dramatic drop either. Not yet anyway. And the $140/pt isn't what most are actually paying for BLT direct. I know someone posted a couple of days ago that with incentives it would be $113/pt.

 

[Sammie]

I think the prices will be determined more by any future restrictions DVC decides to put on resales more than GFV will affect it.

I think the latest restrictions were just the first of more to come.

 

[jcf]

I would think that they would want to maintain price of BLT...after all if you could load up on BLT points at $75-80 why would you bother to buy at the resorts still not sold out...

I must be the only person that thinks BLT resale price will climb once they sell out...it's not that big and price action should be similar to BCV...

 

[JimMIA]

I would think that they would want to maintain price of BLT...after all if you could load up on BLT points at $75-80 why would you bother to buy at the resorts still not sold out...

Don't forget that MOST DVC purchasers don't even know a resale market exists. DVC has basically abandoned ROFR for about a year now, and I suspect they have learned that ROFR doesn't affect their sales at all.

I must be the only person that thinks BLT resale price will climb once they sell out...it's not that big and price action should be similar to BCV...

BLT is a medium-sized resort, very similar in size to BWV. The close proximity to MK and being on the monorail line will help support BLT prices, but there is still going to be a TON of BLT inventory on the market.

Just for reference, BWV is selling and passing ROFR between $50 and about $65 per point...which is $20-$35 per point less than a year ago. To me, that is a much more reliable guide to where BLT prices (and resale prices generally) are going.

IMHO, the prudent timeshare purchaser (of ANY timeshare) will figure they will not recover one cent of their initial purchase price via resale. If you do, fine...but I wouldn't count on it, nor would I consider any possible recovery in my purchase calculations.

 

[sweetdana]

I think the new changes to resale-verses new will bring all the higher prices resorts down more. Effecting the resorts that do not hold their value less.
Deciding between 90$ resale and 140$ new is kinda a hard decision if you don't know for sure you do not want a cruise ect. But .. 80 might change your mind, or 75$. Some will but direct just for that forcing supply up and demand down.. bringing prices down a drop. The smaller the window between the 2, the more people that will end up going direct even without an incentive.

Sold out just means no incentives. If you want 100 BC points, or 100 BWV points all you have to do is call your guide. If they do not have them.... ROFR they will next week. If someone wants BLT when they are sold out.. they just do not get say 20$ off per point.

They will sell out on BLT before GF is for sale, they are almost sold out now, and they will have SSR and AK in the mean time for sale.

 

[Brian Noble]

There is only one way to know for sure.

 

[jade1]

There are many who purchased BLT in the low to mid 90's so with a couple of trips (and having received DP's with the purchase) it really isn't a dramatic drop either. Not yet anyway. And the $140/pt isn't what most are actually paying for BLT direct. I know someone posted a couple of days ago that with incentives it would be $113/pt.

Same here-still happy we could get close to what we paid. If they had raised AKV by 40% like they did BLT-how would that look right now selling in the $70's.

Either way, we will likely add on at GFV and still grab either GFV or BLT at 11 months, then split the week with BCV. Resale price is can go where it wants on these.

 

[Granny]

There is only one way to know for sure.

Too funny Brian!

As for the OP question, it depends on the price per point and the point schedule of GFV. If the point schedule is higher or the same as BLT, it would probably have no effect.

If for some reason, highly doubtful, the point schedule for GFV is lower than BLT, it could have some impact.

Keep in mind that GFV wouldn't have the primary view of MK like BLT has, and the "rear" of the resort has nowhere near the view like Bay Lake.