How will all of this affect Reflections?

[CastAStone]

Roughly 5.4 million points were left as of shut down, that means 30 to 36 months at typical sales rate. Full shut down has moved that restart point to July now.

2/3 average sales rate for a year would extend the time frame by 4 month, 50% would extend it by 6 months. It would take a 50% sales rate drop for the full sales period to extend the sales time frame to 45 to 54 months.

I wanted to do this math but hadn’t gotten around to looking up the history yet. Thank you!

 

[iflyjetzzz]

Roughly 5.4 million points were left as of shut down, that means 30 to 36 months at typical sales rate. Full shut down has moved that restart point to July now.

2/3 average sales rate for a year would extend the time frame by 4 month, 50% would extend it by 6 months. It would take a 50% sales rate drop for the full sales period to extend the sales time frame to 45 to 54 months.

Thanks for the numbers breakdown; very informative.

How long do you think it will take for them to finish selling out Aulani?

 

[bookwormde]

Thanks for the numbers breakdown; very informative.

How long do you think it will take for them to finish selling out Aulani?

I do not have adequate data to be precise, but as a guess 2024 to 2026 range

 

[CastAStone]

Thanks for the numbers breakdown; very informative.

How long do you think it will take for them to finish selling out Aulani?

Hawaii didn’t publish complete data like Florida does, but I’ve seen reports that use guesstimation to fill in the gaps that put it around 2025. A slow down in sales could still push that way out.

 

[bookwormde]

If Reflections is delayed more than 10 months it could accelerate AUL sales if they run out of "new points" before the next WDW DVC is available

 

[CastAStone]

If Reflections is delayed more than 10 months it could accelerate AUL sales if they run out of "new points" before the next WDW DVC is available

They might have to do that intentionally. 3 more years of Aulani contract sales added to the resale market combined with the impact of COVID is just going to further depress the resale market, and a further depressed resale market combined with a recession and the age of the property will likely serve to continue to slow the pace of direct sales considerably. I could legitimately see them selling Aulani until 2030 unless they make a concentrated effort towards unloading it.

 

[tjkraz]

In 2019 and early 2020, DVC was posting some of its best sales numbers in more than 10 years. They spent more than a decade building to that level following the recession in 2007-2009.

I think it's unrealistic to expect DVC to resume selling 200,000+ points per month anytime soon. Into the foreseeable future, there will be dramatically fewer cash guests visiting WDW because of a combination of capacity limits, travel restrictions, financial troubles and a general unwillingness to travel. Even if those issues are addressed in the next 6-12 months, demand for DVC points will not immediately bounce back.

 

[bookwormde]

In 2019 and early 2020, DVC was posting some of its best sales numbers in more than 10 years. They spent more than a decade building to that level following the recession in 2007-2009.

I think it's unrealistic to expect DVC to resume selling 200,000+ points per month anytime soon. Into the foreseeable future, there will be dramatically fewer cash guests visiting WDW because of a combination of capacity limits, travel restrictions, financial troubles and a general unwillingness to travel. Even if those issues are addressed in the next 6-12 months, demand for DVC points will not immediately bounce back.

I agree, until there is a vaccine, there is a cloud hanging over all travel expenditures, though there might be some pent up demand from DVD being closed for 3+ months so there may be an initial bump.

 

[tjkraz]

I agree, until there is a vaccine, there is a cloud hanging over all travel expenditures, though there might be some pent up demand from DVD being closed for 3+ months so there may be an initial bump.

I think it would take a spectacularly low price for any bump to manifest in the short term. Given the uncertainty surrounding Disney's hotel operations and theme park admission, most people have to be second guessing a long term commitment to Disney at this time. Even people who had DVC tours planned during April or May trips must be questioning whether or not to move forward. In lieu of some compelling reason to buy now, it's better to take a wait-and-see approach. We know they won't be selling out of Riviera points anytime soon.

Even with a Covid vaccine, I don't see things immediately leaping back to 2019 sales levels. I mean, it literally took 10 years post-recession for sales to climb to those highs. It could take another 10 years to get back there.

*EDIT: Another issue that I don't think we've addressed yet is impact on the rental market. If fewer non-members are willing to rent points, will that trickle down and impact sales (buyers losing that backup plan for unneeded points.) Or could it make renters more prone to buy themselves? (Probably not immediately--still huge financial commitment.)

 

[NoTime42]

I think it would take a spectacularly low price for any bump to manifest in the short term. Given the uncertainty surrounding Disney's hotel operations and theme park admission, most people have to be second guessing a long term commitment to Disney at this time. Even people who had DVC tours planned during April or May trips must be questioning whether or not to move forward. In lieu of some compelling reason to buy now, it's better to take a wait-and-see approach. We know they won't be selling out of Riviera points anytime soon.

Even with a Covid vaccine, I don't see things immediately leaping back to 2019 sales levels. I mean, it literally took 10 years post-recession for sales to climb to those highs. It could take another 10 years to get back there.

I would think a lot of DVC’s success may depend on how the cash side recovers as capacity increases. If resorts have to offer large cash room discounts, then DVC looks less attractive.

 

[CraigInPA]

*EDIT: Another issue that I don't think we've addressed yet is impact on the rental market. If fewer non-members are willing to rent points, will that trickle down and impact sales (buyers losing that backup plan for unneeded points.) Or could it make renters more prone to buy themselves? (Probably not immediately--still huge financial commitment.)

And what about Disney using empty DVC rooms to move CRO cash guests out of closed hotels in the first few weeks of opening? Will those guests say "Wow, I have to have this!" after they stay in a one or two bedroom unit?

 

[RoseGold]

I would think a lot of DVC’s success may depend on how the cash side recovers as capacity increases. If resorts have to offer large cash room discounts, then DVC looks less attractive.

This is the elephant in the room. When a Nemo suite is $300/night, with no risk and easy cancellation, DVC looks much less attractive for the casual vacationer. The math will never work against cash rates like that.

 

[tjkraz]

This is the elephant in the room. When a Nemo suite is $300/night, with no risk and easy cancellation, DVC looks much less attractive for the casual vacationer. The math will never work against cash rates like that.

Very true. However, we don't even know how long it will be until Disney can throw open the proverbial doors to 30,000 hotel rooms and welcome the masses with open arms. In the short term, the reasonable expectation is that they'll operate a much smaller block of hotel rooms, perhaps charging premium rates. We'll have to wait and see where demand falls relative to the new theme park capacity.

Discounting is nothing new to Disney. They weathered tough times after 9/11 and during the recession. They'll do what is necessary, and DVC will make every effort to compete for its share of the business. Difference here is that Disney isn't solely focused on putting bodies in hotel rooms at any cost. If Disney is forced to operate the parks at a fraction of their typical attendance, they're going to do everything possible to maximize revenue from those guests.

 

[NoTime42]

Last recession, DVC had the extra excitement of selling its first monorail resort, BLT, and first DL resort, GCV (plus THV and Kidani for the value side)

 

[ScubaCat]

I do not have adequate data to be precise, but as a guess 2024 to 2026 range

Hawaii didn’t publish complete data like Florida does, but I’ve seen reports that use guesstimation to fill in the gaps that put it around 2025. A slow down in sales could still push that way out.

Where do y'all get those numbers from? That sounds extremely optimistic to me. Not saying it couldn't happen, but even assuming things were full steam ahead, I'd be surprised if that were true.

 

[CastAStone]

Where do y'all get those numbers from? That sounds extremely optimistic to me. Not saying it couldn't happen, but even assuming things were full steam ahead, I'd be surprised if that were true.

Honestly, it probably is. It really wouldn't surprise me like I said above to see it still for sale in 2030 (Who wants a 20 year old timeshare with 32 years left on it for several multiples of what it goes for on the resale market? anyone? Bueller?). Here is the report I was referring to:

https://dvcnews.com/index.php/resorts/aulani-villas/news-46018/4313-2018-aulani-sales-update

 

[bookwormde]

Where do y'all get those numbers from? That sounds extremely optimistic to me. Not saying it couldn't happen, but even assuming things were full steam ahead, I'd be surprised if that were true.

I have number through 2018

https://dvcnews.com/index.php/resor...year 2015, 870,111,are beginning to level off.

 

[La2kw]

That probably wouldn't be a difficult fix. While the two buildings could be interconnected most of the time, a set of heavy doors that can be locked if the hotel is closed would solve that problem. Of course that diminishes the advantages of shared resources such as a single check in desk for both properties.

The Disneyland Hotel is actually 3 separate buildings already. The DVC building will be a separate 4th building. They could easily include a check in desk in the DVC building and not open the main building with the front desk, if they ever wanted to do that.