How much would you pay, 2050 version?

[smileyanna]

I’m (over)thinking through the DVC math, and I’m curious how folks value future trips. Here’s a mind game that distills the issue for me:

How much would you pay today for a week (any week) in a two bedroom villa at the DVC resort of your choice in 2050?

No further info given - assume whatever you will about your life situation, Disney, the economy etc. How much would you pay right now to take this trip in 2050?

I’d pay nothing, or close to nothing. $25, maybe $50. (I say this as a very happy new DVC member, so no judgement on other opinions or inconsistencies!!)

Im just curious if other people think about these types of value questions, and what number others would put down.

One week, 2br villa, DVC resort of choice, 2050. What would you pay today?

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I’d pay nothing, or close to nothing. $25, maybe $50.

This is about where I’m at, and why I so heavily discounted the out years in pricing out my DVC buy. It needed to make sense in 10 years tops. Who knows what I will want to do in 2050 or if I’ll be alive or healthy. Or if I’ll be promoted several times and rich! Either outcome reduces my willingness to pay now.

And who knows what inflation or market growth or GDP growth will do to the value of a dollar over the next 27 years. It will almost certainly grow in value faster than the list price of that DVC resort. I’ll keep my money now, unless the deal is insane.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

I most likely won't be around and definitely won't be able to do WDW but if I could assign it to someone in my will I'd go $50.

 

[smileyanna]

This is about where I’m at, and why I so heavily discounted the out years in pricing out my DVC buy.

Same, I have a high discount/uncertainty rate over time. But I probably also overvalue (relative to the market) the next few years of owning.

I most likely won't be around and definitely won't be able to do WDW but if I could assign it to someone in my will I'd go $50.

Good point. Even with your own uncertainty, DVC may have a residual value that can be transferred.

 

[Sandisw]

I guess I don't really understand the question but if what you are trying to find out is how much would I pay for a cash room in a 2 bedroom, the answer is nothing because I own DVC which covers the stay.

 

[smileyanna]

I guess I don't really understand the question but if what you are trying to find out is how much would I pay for a cash room in a 2 bedroom, the answer is nothing because I own DVC which covers the stay.

Sorry I wasn’t clear! If you didn’t own, how would you value the ability to stay in a 2 br villa for a week in 2050.

 

[Sandisw]

Sorry I wasn’t clear! If you didn’t own, how would you value the ability to stay in a 2 br villa for a week in 2050.

AHHH....answer is the same then...I would not pay for a 2 bedroom villa...we would be booking cash hotel rooms for each family.

 

[Lumpy1106]

You mean you are paying cash now for a stay you won't be using until 2050?

 

[smileyanna]

AHHH....answer is the same then...I would not pay for a 2 bedroom villa...we would be booking cash hotel rooms for each family.

Love it, a good value of DVC that you can get the larger villas over cash stays then

 

[smileyanna]

You mean you are paying cash now for a stay you won't be using until 2050?

Yes, a thought experiment. What would you pay now (absent DVC) for a Disney stay in a villa 30ish years from now.

 

[Lumpy1106]

In the last year of your DVC contract the contract is worth what you would pay for a cash stay minus the dues on points. I don't know why anyone is suggesting it's a lot less than that.

Considering the cost of dues on the points I just used, I spent about $400/night for a 2br, CCV stay last month. That's a steal compared to what you would pay cash for the same room. Whatever you pay today, cash, is going to be considered a bargain in 2050. If you could get the week in the 2050 room for $3500 today dollars I'd say you are coming out ahead NMW. BUT...Not sure what the rack rate on the room is - probably double that? Disney inflation is more than real inflation so you are getting a good deal at that price too.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

In the last year of your DVC contract the contract is worth what you would pay for a cash stay minus the dues on points. I don't know why anyone is suggesting it's a lot less than that.

Considering the cost of dues on the points I just used, I spent about $400/night for a 2br, CCV stay last month. That's a steal compared to what you would pay cash for the same room. Whatever you pay today, cash, is going to be considered a bargain in 2050. If you could get the week in the 2050 room for $3500 today dollars I'd say you are coming out ahead NMW. BUT...Not sure what the rack rate on the room is - probably double that? Disney inflation is more than real inflation so you are getting a good deal at that price too.

Yes…but would you be willing to shell that out now? It’s not about what it’s worth. It’s about how much money you’re willing to separate from now for extremely delayed gratification.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Well, no, because I'd be in my 80's. Only things assured in this life are death and taxes.

 

[Cfabar1]

I have no idea, and thanks to DVC I don't have to think about it.... If it is still easy to go to WDW and/or I still want to go to WDW at that time, I will go.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Here is how I look at DVC
might be work, might be different,

but it works for me

on average i think i paid 75 dollars / point for my SSR point 300 plus points. Or 22,500….(yes plus dues) but I don’t count that for other reasons

for an up coming trip a two bedroom at SSR
is 167 points. Or a cash rate or about 4800 plus tax…. So 5 years to break even (ok dues so 7)
but I still have 130 points left to rent…. Or stay longer

I can bump it up to 7 nights at 300 point (299).
cash rate is 8400 plus tax……. Break even is now 3 or 4 years….

what will I pay in 2050 ….. dues

my vacations will have long been paid for …. In most cases by some renters …

at 5 percent inflation over 27 years that same room might very well have a cash rate north of 17,000 plus tax.

again that’s how my math works
other’s here have told my wrong

Ymmv

 

[AstroBlasters]

$254.12. That is the present value of what is needed to stay in a room that costs $3332 ($1500 today at a 3% inflation rate) assuming a 10% return on the $254.12. I’m assuming an Aulani Ocean View or Grand Californian room.

 

[NVDISFamily]

So many factors to consider.... What will medicine be like in 2050? Will 60s be the new 40s? If the room is only for me and @MrsNVDISFamily likely a lot less than if the kiddos are grown and the grandkids are enjoying it. Hard to put a price on happy grandkids...

 

[Unclelude]

Interesting way to look at 'buying future vacations' (timeshare) ...

The question posed outside of timeshare thinking would be zero... For sure...

With timeshare think... My first contract was aggregate $5/point... say the room was 30 points ... I guess I paid $150 'today' for a vacation 27 years from now! ( I know dues etc not considered ...)

... I think that makes me feel even worse about pre-paid vacations...hehe.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Something else to consider,

I recently book a room at the swan reserve, with my BoNVoY points, as a Titanium member.
My free room cost me 270 dollars in "tax", I believe that is in addition to the "resort fee" but I might be wrong...

I don't pay "tax" or "resort fees" when I use my DVC points, unless I goto HI

 

[E2ME2]

Something else to consider,

I recently book a room at the swan reserve, with my BoNVoY points, as a Titanium member.
My free room cost me 270 dollars in "tax", I believe that is in addition to the "resort fee" but I might be wrong...

I don't pay "tax" or "resort fees" when I use my DVC points, unless I goto HI

or Parking!
I got hit with those same extras the last time we stayed at the Dolphin.
It did not make me want to hurry back, especially since I just added on at BWV,
so I can walk over to SWOLPHIN any time I feel the urge.