Right now, there are two of us booked for 6 nights (Sun-Sat) on the AAA rate at $653 for a Little Mermaid room (10% discount). We are planning on returning next year so Annual Passes are in our plans.
What sort of discount can we expect historically?
You may skip to the end unless you enjoy reading way too much detail. You've been warned.
I am expecting free dining to come out, but unfortunately, we are not the type of people for whom free dining is going to be worth a ton.
We'd use half our meals for breakfast at Landscapes of Flavor and could make use of all of the included meals, but we will have Tables in Wonderland and don't often eat dessert or drink soda/juice so the desserts will go to waste and the soda/juice will be used on bottled water to carry around.
I figured that without including snacks the 24 meals are worth ~$200 to us. Of course at this valuation, we'd never buy the QSDP, but i'm trying to decide if the potential AP discount (and savings of buying APs before prices increase) is worth more than the QSDP.
I don't really think we could use all 12 snacks as the times we do snack, we often share and we won't often need bottled water to carry around as we'd be using that for our non-alcoholic beverage at many of the meals.
Still, let's assign the snacks a $20 valuation since we will use some of them and they are worth something. This makes the whole free dining plan worth $220 to us.
Now a $220 discount on a $726 rack rate is equivalent to a 27.5% discount which is very solid. However, we would have to upgrade our MYW tickets on our first day to APs and AP prices are very likely to rise in the near future. Last year the increase was ~$21 on annual passes so we have to assume at least a similar increase this year (and possibly more given the Disneyland price increases).
After accounting for a price increase, the FDP savings is reduced to $178 which is a 24.5% discount. A $32 increase in APs, reduces the discount to 21.5% while a $42 increase has a 18.7% discount.
My conclusion is that if the AP discount is expected to be > 20%, I should just get APs now and forego free dining. At a 20% expected discount, I should go for free dining unless AP prices rise $40 or more. If the expected discount is < 20%, I should almost always get the free dining.
So the question is do you expect the discount to be less than, equal to, or greater than 20% for Art of Animation?
It looks like last year Pop Century had 30% discounts, but I don't know if that will continue or if Art of Animation will be eligible, although I'd probably be willing to switch to Pop for a 30% discount.
Best case scenario for the Dining Plan of only a $20 increase in AP prices and no AP discounts at all saves me $105 over my AAA rate by getting free dining. Can't believe I just made such a long post over a maximum $105 savings, maybe that means I should just get the APs now and go with whatever happens.
Still appreciate input and suggestions.
What sort of discount can we expect historically?
You may skip to the end unless you enjoy reading way too much detail. You've been warned.
I am expecting free dining to come out, but unfortunately, we are not the type of people for whom free dining is going to be worth a ton.
We'd use half our meals for breakfast at Landscapes of Flavor and could make use of all of the included meals, but we will have Tables in Wonderland and don't often eat dessert or drink soda/juice so the desserts will go to waste and the soda/juice will be used on bottled water to carry around.
I figured that without including snacks the 24 meals are worth ~$200 to us. Of course at this valuation, we'd never buy the QSDP, but i'm trying to decide if the potential AP discount (and savings of buying APs before prices increase) is worth more than the QSDP.
I don't really think we could use all 12 snacks as the times we do snack, we often share and we won't often need bottled water to carry around as we'd be using that for our non-alcoholic beverage at many of the meals.
Still, let's assign the snacks a $20 valuation since we will use some of them and they are worth something. This makes the whole free dining plan worth $220 to us.
Now a $220 discount on a $726 rack rate is equivalent to a 27.5% discount which is very solid. However, we would have to upgrade our MYW tickets on our first day to APs and AP prices are very likely to rise in the near future. Last year the increase was ~$21 on annual passes so we have to assume at least a similar increase this year (and possibly more given the Disneyland price increases).
After accounting for a price increase, the FDP savings is reduced to $178 which is a 24.5% discount. A $32 increase in APs, reduces the discount to 21.5% while a $42 increase has a 18.7% discount.
My conclusion is that if the AP discount is expected to be > 20%, I should just get APs now and forego free dining. At a 20% expected discount, I should go for free dining unless AP prices rise $40 or more. If the expected discount is < 20%, I should almost always get the free dining.
So the question is do you expect the discount to be less than, equal to, or greater than 20% for Art of Animation?
It looks like last year Pop Century had 30% discounts, but I don't know if that will continue or if Art of Animation will be eligible, although I'd probably be willing to switch to Pop for a 30% discount.
Best case scenario for the Dining Plan of only a $20 increase in AP prices and no AP discounts at all saves me $105 over my AAA rate by getting free dining. Can't believe I just made such a long post over a maximum $105 savings, maybe that means I should just get the APs now and go with whatever happens.
Still appreciate input and suggestions.
