I watched the Direct Disney incentives for a number of months before buying a resale and have had a passing interest ever since. I have also read a number of posts here on the disboards and have formed the opinion that incentives for purchases direct from Disney are the rule not the exception. Even the Grand Floridian that doesn't have a formal incentive at the moment is still priced lower then BLT. Basically, incentives are Disneys way to put some urgency in the purchasers decision making process. Dont rush into buying direct from Disney without taking the time to consider the purchase carefully. Also, you may want to look into the resales, as you will save a lot more money going that path. If you miss an incentive there is probably another one around the corner.
You are really concerned about the current incentive you can also call and ask your guide when it will expire.