How is FP+ making other lines longer?

[MrInfinity]

But your assumption (and that of many others) is that the people who did not use FP- were compete ignoramuses with no strategy whatsoever and who wandered around the park aimlessly and that those people have been thrown a life preserver. There are no doubt some of them. But certainly not all.

Whoa! Pls do not suggest I suggested this because I certainly did not, and would definitely not use the derogatory words! I think most everyone in the world knows that if they go early, they will beat the crowds. You go to a baseball game, museum, even the mall... you just know that by 11am, the mall is really crowded and so you avoid the kid play area. Everybody knows this. On vacation, I think most ppl simply do not choose to act on it. That's why we see the mornings are good for us to tour. Most ppl just don't feel compelled to hit the park at rope drop to get on rides.

 

[Disneylover99]

Can you say that Disney didn't know there would be longer waits? What's with the interactive queues then? Why give guests things to do and see in queue lines if you don't realize that more guests are going to be waiting in them? I think this system is doing exactly what WDW expected it to do, and if that's the case, calls for it to be scrapped are going to fall on deaf ears.

I totally agree! I guess FP benefits the people who love the interactive queues.

 

[JimmyV]

I think most everyone in the world knows that if they go early, they will beat the crowds.
On vacation, I think most ppl simply do not choose to act on it.

• Everyone knows the strategy for beating crowds....but....
• At the world's most crowded venue, most people choose not to employ that proven strategy.

OK. Here's where we get on separate trains.
Again, neither of us has the data to back our position. But my side of the coin assumes rational action (using a proven strategy to avoid an expected crowd) and your side of the coin assumes irrational action (eschewing a proven strategy for avoiding an expected crowd). I favor the rational over the irrational, but maybe the laws of entropy will prevail.

 

[Disneylover99]

Yet this is BECAUSE that casual rider is choosing to ride an extra ride. So clearly it is benefitting someone. It's benefitting those casual visitors who are now getting to ride 6 rides in the time they used to ride 5.

Before: Casual visitor rides 5 rides, waiting 1 hour for each. Total 5 hours.
Now: The same 5 rides are done in 20 min (x3) and 75 min (x2). Total 3.5 hours.

So, this guest who used to spend most of his day waiting for 5 rides can now knock the same number out in 1.5 hours less. Which means he can pick up a 6th ride at 75 min and still have 15 min to buy an extra snack. <-- so even tho the lines were longer (75 min vs 60 min) the casual guest accomplishes more because he is using 3 FP+.

Disney made more money, he rode an extra ride in less time than he used to.

Clearly the casual guest *is* benefitting from FP+.

If Shaden's theory is correct, then indeed the casual visitors are getting on more than they used to -- and this amounts to the majority of WDW visitors.

Would a casual visitor really stand in line for five hours for five rides in the past? I would think that after the second ride waiting for an hour, they would start to find and go on rides with short wait times and they would have maybe used a FP or two as well. I really don't see how the new system benefits even the casual visitor.

 

[MrInfinity]

• Everyone knows the strategy for beating crowds....but....
• At the world's most crowded venue, most people choose not to employ that proven strategy.

OK. Here's where we get on separate trains.
Again, neither of us has the data to back our position. But my side of the coin assumes rational action (using a proven strategy to avoid an expected crowd) and your side of the coin assumes irrational action (eschewing a proven strategy for avoiding an expected crowd). I favor the rational over the irrational, but maybe the laws of entropy will prevail.

Yeah. I don't see those points as contradictory at all. Most guests know that they could beat the crowds, but beating the crowds is not important to them. If it was a priority, we'd see most guests going early and early wouldn't be our sweet spot.

It's only the rational way to tour if the average family shares your view on what's important.

 

[GeorgiaHoo]

I haven't studied the data but based on reports from others and what I've observed I'm assuming that rides that were walk-on/short lines in the past now have long standby lines in part because FP+ funnels more people to rides they wouldn't have considered before. For example, instead of arriving at Epcot at 11AM and going to stand in line for Test Track (though some people still do this) a family of 4 now has a FP+ for Living with the Land that they need to use between 11-12 so they go ride that. And because FP+ is a "perk" that is pushed by the Disney website more people are taking advantage of it than did FP- because people were less aware of how FP- worked. And it seems like such a great deal, right - you now can ride Living with the Land with NO WAIT even though you could ride it with no wait in the past. But many visitors don't know that. And because more visitors take advantage of FP+ than did FP- (that's my assumption) there are more visitors being provided preferred access than in the past, which also increases stand-by lines.

 

[Sco]

I have gone to BTMR many times and saw a 40 min posted wait in the stand by line. Looked at the FP machines and see that I could get a FP good in 50 min. Why did people wait in line for almost the same time they could have just gotten a FP and came back??? IDK, but it happened many times on different rides. Not during extremely busy times of course but enough to make me think that many people didn't care. Heck I see people posting on here that never used FP because of some reason.... so the thing is, many of those people now are using the FP+ when in the past they would just be waiting in the SB line for a headliner. Now they are using FP in lines that don't need FP making those waits more.

 

[MrInfinity]

Would a casual visitor really stand in line for five hours for five rides in the past? I would think that after the second ride waiting for an hour, they would start to find and go on rides with short wait times and they would have maybe used a FP or two as well. I really don't see how the new system benefits even the casual visitor.

I used "an hour" in my example because Jimmy or Shaden (I forget which) asserted that the wait for POTC was 55 min. So give or take, yeah, I'd say that is a pretty reasonable approximation for the Standby wait time for headliners like POTC, Splash, BTMRR, Soarin or TT by midday.

 

[JimmyV]

Would a casual visitor really stand in line for five hours for five rides in the past? I would think that after the second ride waiting for an hour, they would start to find and go on rides with short wait times and they would have maybe used a FP or two as well. I really don't see how the new system benefits even the casual visitor.

Yes. The fuzzy logic assumes that people are incapable of learning, or unwilling to learn while on vacation. They check all common sense at the door and abandon everything they know or learned about crowd management. And these people will be rescued by FP+. I ascribe a higher level of learning and reacting to humans. Even the mouse figures out the maze on the third or fourth try. But humans at WDW are destined to fail the simple test of crowd avoidance. I will not contest the point that only 50% of past guests used FP-. But I will not concede that these same people employed no strategies whatsoever.

 

[MrInfinity]

Yes. The fuzzy logic assumes that people are incapable of learning, or unwilling to learn while on vacation. They check all common sense at the door and abandon everything they know or learned about crowd management. And these people will be rescued by FP+. I ascribe a higher level of learning and reacting to humans. Even the mouse figures out the maze on the third or fourth try. But humans at WDW are destined to fail the simple test of crowd avoidance. I will not contest the point that only 50% of past guests used FP-. But I will not concede that these same people employed no strategies whatsoever.

Wow. You're losing me here. This is so insulting.

I just don't think most ppl choose to "employ a strategy". They're on vacation. They get up in the morning and decide to go to a park, they walk in, enjoy the view, look around, take some pictures, decide what to do next... There's nothing wrong w this, I do it all the time.

"abandon everything they know or learned about crowd management". Most ppl are not thinking about crowd management. It's vacation. They just go. They know it'll be busy, they know it'll be less busy right at open, yet having a casual breakfast w their family in their hotel is more important. many many many people do this. It's perfectly fine.

I don't think I want to continue this thread if you're going to continue to spin it so negatively...

 

[DPCummerbund]

Wow, this thread is getting out of hand.

Can we at least agree on the basics of how a line works?
Line length is a function of two things:
1) How many people the ride can process, and
2) The size of the crowd that wants to get on it.

That's IT. Unless FP+ has introduced some mysterious third factor - and no one has yet presented any evidence that they have- then the length of the line is based on those two factors, and nothing else.

So, if the lines are getting longer, then either the ride capacity is down, or the crowd at each line is up.

So let's look at ride capacity first. Some people have reported that Disney is sending more empty boats/cars through. For example, the standby line is long while the FP line is empty, so there's a "gap" when the CMs can't transfer to the SB line fast enough.

First of all, this is a line management problem, and not a permanent feature of FP+. There is no conceivable reason why Disney would WANT to send empty cars through. I would also argue that it's a matter of guest perception - I haven't been to WDW in years (since well before FP+), and I remember seeing lots of empty cars & boats, even when there were lines. The only reason that empty cars can be causing longer lines now is that the number of empty cars has increased, and will STAY increased under FP+. And there's just no reason that could be the case.


So, there's no reason ride capacity can be inherently causing longer lines.


So, if lines are longer, then the crowds wanting to get on must be larger. There is no sign that overall park attendance is up enough to cause this - and even if it were, it would not be a function of FP+.

So, if lines are longer, it MUST be a function of "reallocation of line space" - people waiting in line who weren't waiting in lines before. In essence, this is the "anti-commando" argument: casual riders are riding more, while the "FP- Masters" are riding less. People can argue all day about whether or not that's true, and personally I don't care. That's Disney's business, and not mine.

 

[Brian Noble]

Unless FP+ has introduced some mysterious third factor

In the most recent quarterly earnings call, Iger stated that many more people were using FP+ than used FP. Those are more people who are "virtually" in line without actually being in line---so they may as well just get in another line somewhere. In other words, FP+ (or any virtual queueing mechanism) provides the same effect as increasing attendance, because each FP+ user is in two lines at once during the "waiting time" they'd otherwise experience for the FP+ reservations they have.

 

[DPCummerbund]

In the most recent quarterly earnings call, Iger stated that many more people were using FP+ than used FP. Those are more people who are "virtually" in line without actually being in line---so they may as well just get in another line somewhere. In other words, FP+ (or any virtual queueing mechanism) provides the same effect as increasing attendance, because each FP+ user is in two lines at once during the "waiting time" they'd otherwise experience for the FP+ reservations they have.

No, it doesn't. The only thing that matters is the number of people who actually get on the ride.

Imagine that those "virtual guests" were actual people - imagine you had a clone of yourself holding a spot in line. While you're in line for one ride, your clone waits in another. When you finish your ride, you cut in front of other people, find your clone, and take his spot in line - you're not going WITH him, you're just taking his spot.

In effect, the line IS longer, because you were waiting in two of them at the same time. But the important thing to note here is that you got to ride TWO rides as well. So, it doesn't matter whether the line itself is longer: as long as the total amount of rides that the guests experience is the same, then nothing has changed.

 

[TDC Nala]

Are we missing that Disney doesn't care whether or not you have to wait in line longer? They took into account (by building interactive queues) that guests would probably have to wait longer for the "secondary" attractions if they choose to FP the "primary" attractions.

Apparently they prefer it, as if you have to wait in line longer, it means that more people have paid to get into the park. If attendance is down there will not be as many lines, most noticeably at the "secondary" attractions.

 

[MrInfinity]

No, it doesn't. The only thing that matters is the number of people who actually get on the ride.

Imagine that those "virtual guests" were actual people - imagine you had a clone of yourself holding a spot in line. While you're in line for one ride, your clone waits in another. When you finish your ride, you cut in front of other people, find your clone, and take his spot in line - you're not going WITH him, you're just taking his spot.

In effect, the line IS longer, because you were waiting in two of them at the same time. But the important thing to note here is that you got to ride TWO rides as well. So, it doesn't matter whether the line itself is longer: as long as the total amount of rides that the guests experience is the same, then nothing has changed.

I think it out basically like you do. The supply (# of potential ridings of a ride) is fixed, and the demand (the number of ppl that want to ride a ride) is the only thing that can change the average time waited...

However, I did like Shaden's argument, that because most guests, who used to be content to ride, say 5 rides a day standby, are now able to ride them in less time (3 FP and 2 standby)... do they then:

A) feel they've met their target # of rides and thus not ride more
or,
B) feel they have yet to spend their 5 hours riding rides and thus go ride a 6th ride.

I think it's a mix of both. Ppl don't need to ride as much as a commando, but if they get done with 5 rides in 3.5 hours instead of 5, they might go for a 6th. Given they were happy before doing 5 in the same time, but now that they do the 5 a little quicker, do they in fact take one more ride of something.

And if they do, does that actually increase the demand. For now they will wait in line for an additional ride, but does someone else in turn get to ride one less?

I think we are indeed seeing slightly higher waits overall... because ppl are riding some things quicker, thus setting their sights on one or two rides more than they used to. Meanwhile the commandos are not exactly going home early, they're waiting it out too, trying to get on just as many as before. (and coming up short, for sure).

 

[OtherScott]

I think it out basically like you do. The supply (# of potential ridings of a ride) is fixed, and the demand (the number of ppl that want to ride a ride) is the only thing that can change the average time waited...

However, I did like Shaden's argument, that because most guests, who used to be content to ride, say 5 rides a day standby, are now able to ride them in less time (3 FP and 2 standby)... do they then:

A) feel they've met their target # of rides and thus not ride more
or,
B) feel they have yet to spend their 5 hours riding rides and thus go ride a 6th ride.

I think it's a mix of both. Ppl don't need to ride as much as a commando, but if they get done with 5 rides in 3.5 hours instead of 5, they might go for a 6th. Given they were happy before doing 5 in the same time, but now that they do the 5 a little quicker, do they in fact take one more ride of something.

And if they do, does that actually increase the demand. For now they will wait in line for an additional ride, but does someone else in turn get to ride one less?

I think we are indeed seeing slightly higher waits overall... because ppl are riding some things quicker, thus setting their sights on one or two rides more than they used to. Meanwhile the commandos are not exactly going home early, they're waiting it out too, trying to get on just as many as before. (and coming up short, for sure).

Why would we want to try and quantify this now?

The current situation is resort guests pre-booking FPs while non-resort guests, knowing this, only being able to obtain FPs at park, day-of, on a first come, first served basis.

Who in his right mind would not expect to see huge crowds all day? Who wouldn't attribute some of this to FP+?

Get with me when everyone is pre-booking. Yes, the lines will be longer than last year -all of them. They probably won't be as long as they are now.

 

[DPCummerbund]

I think it out basically like you do. The supply (# of potential ridings of a ride) is fixed, and the demand (the number of ppl that want to ride a ride) is the only thing that can change the average time waited...

However, I did like Shaden's argument, that because most guests, who used to be content to ride, say 5 rides a day standby, are now able to ride them in less time (3 FP and 2 standby)... do they then:

A) feel they've met their target # of rides and thus not ride more
or,
B) feel they have yet to spend their 5 hours riding rides and thus go ride a 6th ride.

I think it's a mix of both. Ppl don't need to ride as much as a commando, but if they get done with 5 rides in 3.5 hours instead of 5, they might go for a 6th. Given they were happy before doing 5 in the same time, but now that they do the 5 a little quicker, do they in fact take one more ride of something.

And if they do, does that actually increase the demand. For now they will wait in line for an additional ride, but does someone else in turn get to ride one less?

I think we are indeed seeing slightly higher waits overall... because ppl are riding some things quicker, thus setting their sights on one or two rides more than they used to. Meanwhile the commandos are not exactly going home early, they're waiting it out too, trying to get on just as many as before. (and coming up short, for sure).

I think you're exactly right. People who used to just wait in standby and ride, say, 5 major rides a day are probably now still waiting for those 5 standby rides, but they're also getting 3 FP+, meaning that they now ride 8. They may even be staying around the park longer in order to do it.

And if they are spending more time in the park and riding more rides, then lines will be longer - and they'll be taking rides from the commandos who used to ride 11 rides a day, who are now riding 8 or so.

Thus, commandos may be angry, but all those people who are riding more are happier.

The economic concept of utility also says that rides 6, 7, and 8 make you happier than rides 9,10, and 11. So, collectively, those guests whose ride totals just went up are now going to enjoy their days much more than the those who are now riding 8 instead of 11.

But there's a caveat to that - loss aversion. If people are expecting to go on 11 rides a day and they only get 8, then they've lost 3 rides, and people who go from 11 rides down to 8 are more unhappy than those who went from 8 to 11 are happy. And this explains why people on the DIS are so mad about this whole thing that they're projecting all their unhappiness on EVERYONE, and not just the group that has been affected by this change.

 

[JimmyV]

I just don't think most ppl choose to "employ a strategy". They're on vacation. They get up in the morning and decide to go to a park, they walk in, enjoy the view, look around, take some pictures, decide what to do next...

It's not intended to be negative or insulting. You are building your argument on the basis that most ppl choose to "employ a strategy". They're on vacation. They get up in the morning and decide to go to a park, they walk in, enjoy the view, look around, take some pictures, decide what to do next... and from that you begin phrases with the words "Most people" and "Most everyone" as if this is gospel. And I am disagreeing with your underlying premise. Yes, if a family strolled into the MK at 10:00 a.m., didn't use any Fast Passes and did, in order:

Tea Cups-walk on
Carousel-5 minute wait
Carousel of Progress-5 minute wait
Laugh Factory-15 minute wait
Lunch
Space Mountain-70 minute wait
Small World-30 minute wait
Haunted Mansion-30 minute wait
BTMRR-60 minute wait
Splash Mountain-80 minute wait

and then in 2014 did the exact same rides in the exact same order using FP+ at the Mountains, they would save oodles of time. But inventing such a family, and then jumping to the conclusion that "most people" toured like this doesn't advance the argument. If this same family arrived at 9:15 and did the Mountains first, the entire result would change. And even if this family did as described above, it is a pretty sure thing that on day 2 they would have a better plan. You don't seem to think so, so you rest on your assumption that this family will lop at least 180 minutes off of their day with FP+. I question whether there really are so many people who have not looked at a Birnbaum book, a website, an Unofficial Guide, a Fodor's or a Frommer's to arrive at the world's most crowded destination without a plan. So I rest on the assumption that FP+ will not shave as much time off of their day as you seem to think. It is a simple disagreement based on unprovable assumptions.

 

[JimmyV]

No, it doesn't. The only thing that matters is the number of people who actually get on the ride.

You seem to be fixated on the number of minutes it takes all riders to ride a ride during the operational hours of the park in a given day. Everyone will agree that for most rides, nothing has changed. (There is still the "empty Pirate Ship issue to deal with now that the right side of the line is FP only and no one else can use it). So 20,000 people ride over the course of 14 hours. Great. If that is what it takes to conclude that the "lines aren't longer" then you are right and no one can mathematically prove otherwise. But if you habitually toured the park such that you got to Hanunted Mansion at 11:00 each day and the wait hovered between 10-20 minutes, and now it hovers between 40-60 minutes at 11:00, then for you the line is longer. As TDC Nala pointed out earlier, if the CMs are actually holding back the SB line waiting for FP people to saunter in from the sidewalk giving them clear passage with no SB people in their way as if they were the Royal Family, then the SB line isn't moving and to those people it is longer. If you want to conclude that 1000 people boarded the ride in the hour between 11:00-12:00 both before and after FP+, then fine. You would be right. But that doesn't help the person who got in line at 11:00 and is being told that he cannot ride until 12:00 because the FP people have to be given priority. If all 1000 people that hour come from the FP line, then the SB line is actually infinite in length. Yet 1000 people still rode the ride.

We have to decide if we are talking about ride capacity or the impact on the SB line. No one who has been to WDW since January 15 is coming back saying that SB lines are shorter or no different in length. Perhaps if people stop-watched their aggregate wait times over the course of an entire day at all rides, FP and SB, they would see a surprising result in terms of total amount of time waited in the aggregate. But again, that does not address the question posed, which is, "Is the POTC SB line longer now?" The answer to that is yes, if you do not avail yourself of a FP for that ride.

 

[jade1]

It's not intended to be negative or insulting. You are building your argument on the basis that most ppl choose to "employ a strategy". They're on vacation. They get up in the morning and decide to go to a park, they walk in, enjoy the view, look around, take some pictures, decide what to do next... and from that you begin phrases with the words "Most people" and "Most everyone" as if this is gospel. And I am disagreeing with your underlying premise. Yes, if a family strolled into the MK at 10:00 a.m., didn't use any Fast Passes and did, in order:

Tea Cups-walk on
Carousel-5 minute wait
Carousel of Progress-5 minute wait
Laugh Factory-15 minute wait
Lunch
Space Mountain-70 minute wait
Small World-30 minute wait
Haunted Mansion-30 minute wait
BTMRR-60 minute wait
Splash Mountain-80 minute wait

and then in 2014 did the exact same rides in the exact same order using FP+ at the Mountains, they would save oodles of time. But inventing such a family, and then jumping to the conclusion that "most people" toured like this doesn't advance the argument. If this same family arrived at 9:15 and did the Mountains first, the entire result would change. And even if this family did as described above, it is a pretty sure thing that on day 2 they would have a better plan. You don't seem to think so, so you rest on your assumption that this family will lop at least 180 minutes off of their day with FP+. I question whether there really are so many people who have not looked at a Birnbaum book, a website, an Unofficial Guide, a Fodor's or a Frommer's to arrive at the world's most crowded destination without a plan. So I rest on the assumption that FP+ will not shave as much time off of their day as you seem to think. It is a simple disagreement based on unprovable assumptions.

I kind of agree.

But have heard the average guest arrives between noon and 2PM. That may or may not be true, and whether or not that is "most people" I don't know, but certainly 10's of thousands do.

I think they are faced with blue and red group.

Pretty sure "most people" prefer blue (certainly not all-a large % prefer red).

Busy seasons (like this time of year) FP- for blue were gone-so they had to choose to just do red, or wait for blue only much longer waits than these even.