My only advice is make sure you have a safety school! Applying to only one school is beyond rediculous. Having options is the best thing you can do for yourself.
I don't know that ridiculous is the word for it, but it's not a wise choice. Every student should definitely have a "safety net" school in mind -- and it's not always grades or money that send a student in that direction. As I said, I've been teaching a long time, and I've seen some students fall into some dire situations, things that they didn't see coming. I've seen a couple girls, of course, who've ended up giving up scholarships to really good schools to stay home /attend community college because they found themselves unexpectedly with child. I knew one girl who developed cancer during her senior year of high school, and suddenly going away to school was no longer an option -- wisely, she began her college career as a half-time commuter student at a local university, and she continued to live at home because she frequently needed physical help from her parents. Any of our students could end up at their safety schools.
Everyone told me in the last years of high school that private schools give out the best scholarships, and can end up being cheaper than public schools. I applied to tons of private schools, and I did get scholarships to most. But even a half tuition scholarship at a private school still made the tuition more expensive than my local public university. The room and board was often more expensive as well. Thankfully I applied to the public university (on a whim) because I ended up there. Depending on the schools you apply to and the practices in your area, private schools could be a better deal. But there's really no guarantee of scholarships until you have a letter in hand, so you have to cover all the bases.
This is very typical of what I see every year.
Mrs. Pete -- I'm very familiar with Carolina's admission standards and statistics. I used to work for the university as did my DH, and we've already sent two sons to college -- one was accepted to Carolina but chose to go to State. My youngest son's academic record is stronger than his older brother's, making him a better Carolina applicant. We would never let our son apply to only one school unless it was early decision, which he will likely do. If the next two years of high school go like the first two, however, he will be very close to a lock.
Oh, good. You already knew what I had to say and feel the same way. Sounds like he's a good candidate, but I never tell any student, "You're a shoe-in". I have seen #1 in the class turned down by Carolina; of course, in all honesty, he was the kid who had the grades but not the extra-curriculars, leadership experience, etc. He wasn't well-rounded.
One more thing, Mrs. Pete -- As much as I love Carolina, Davidson is a lot harder to get into.
Hmmm . . . a quick google search says that you're right: Davidson accepts 26% and Carolina accepts 34%. I'm not sure that qualifies as "a lot harder", but they're both obviously selective and 8% is 8%.
I think the difference is that Carolina is THE DREAM SCHOOL for so many kids, and when they are rejected, it's a bigger deal to them. No one talks much about who was and wasn't accepted at Davidson -- I don't hear about students who are devestated because Davidson turned them down -- but when the Carolina letters arrive in the mail, the news zips around school. With Davidson (and other colleges), it's, "Did you hear that Jane received an acceptance letter from both Davidson and Clemson?" (I'm losing the emphasis here in writing, but it's about the individual student.) But with Carolina, the emphasis is on the school: "Did you hear that Mike, Susan, and John were all accepted at Carolina?" And it's assumed that once a student receives a Carolina acceptance, his college search/planning stops. He's done. He's arrived.
Off topic: My daughter's the same age as your younger son, and she claims right now that she's going to apply to Carolina so that she can turn them down (a scenerio that could very well happen). She's been a State fan for years, though I know she won't be attending State.