How fast does vgf sell out for December?

[Kebby]

December 11 mos periodonly just opened, and my friend tells me no 2 bedrooms left for early dec we are debating between a contract there or PVB but if uts that hard to get in at the 11 mos mark I am worried!

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The first 2 weeks of December are probably the busiest time for DVC bookings. And VGF is small. Sooooo many people reported that they bought VGF in order to book a few nights in Dec - and many specifically said early Dec. I suspect it will be a difficult time to book - even at 11 months - for quite awhile. This difficulty does not apply to all times of the year though but Oct-Dec is popular and will be some of the most difficult times.

PVB being all studios will almost certainly be much easier but then there aren't any cost effective 2BR's there but you apparently will be able to get connecting studios if desired.

 

[Minniesgal]

1 bedrooms are not nearly as difficult to book. I booked one yesterday for early December no problem

 

[CarolMN]

December 11 mos periodonly just opened, and my friend tells me no 2 bedrooms left for early dec we are debating between a contract there or PVB but if it's that hard to get in at the 11 mos mark I am worried!

It truly does depend on the time of the year. DVC "busy" seasons do not necessarily correspond to the busiest times for the parks. That said, with a very few exceptions, those who book at 11 months virtually always get what they want.

We can help you more if you tell us when do you anticipate traveling.

 

[jerseygal]

Hoping that the Poly will take some pressure off demand of studios at VGF!
LOVED walking to the Poly this past Dec to eat at Captain Cooks!

 

[Kebby]

Thanks all! We typically travel the end of September, or between dec 4-15 every year.

We were all set to sign on for poly, but recognizing that we have 4 kids and will eventually need a two bedroom we thought vgf might be best as we likely will be able to get into PVB at the 7 mos mark if we wanted. I then heard ppl were getting 2013 and 2014 points for vgf... Which made it even more attractive.

 

[bellablue2]

these are not the only two resorts available to purchase - the resale brokers have contracts for all resorts other than pvb and a significant savings. there can be the same early december problems with bwv standard views and akv value and club categories, but other views will be readily available at 11 months. vwl is beloved, especially during the holidays at about $75/point, goes fast in early december but i have always been able to get my ressies in the first week. and akv, at about 1/2 the new resorts will be readily available.

move out of disney's direct-buy box for additional options at a significant savings.

 

[drusba]

What you are seeing from early Dec is not itself a matter of significant concern. Early Dec just happens to be the highest DVC demand time of the year at WDW and thus anything at a near park resort has some risk of disappearing quickly once the 11 month window opens. The reality is that VGF dedicated 2BRs and GVs are actually open much of the year even at 7 months out. And if it is a 2BR at VGF that you will usually want then you can safely purchase there; in fact if your desired times did not include first two weeks of Dec, I would suggest you seriously consider buying resale elsewhere such as SSR for about half of Disney's price per point becuase those dedicated 2BRs at VGF are likely to be open much of the year at 7 months out.

But since you mentioned you are looking at both VGF and Poly, I am assuming your have an interest in studios (unless you can actually afford the astronomical points needed for a bungalow at Poly). In that case, you have a reason to be worried and that includes both VGF and PVB. What has happened in the last four years with new resorts is that Disney has managed to raise the combined price per point and points needed per night by about 60% over what most of BLT, a resort itself that was considered quite expensive, actually sold for. VGF has 47 dedicated 2BRs (meaning they can only be 2BRs), six GVs, and 47 lock-off 2BRs. It is the lock-offs that actually get reserved as studios and 1BRs. What has happened with VGF is that it is so expensive that the vast majority of purchasers from the target audience could afford to buy only enough points for studios. However, Disney got to sell to those purchasers all the points also applicable to larger rooms.

The same thing is likely going to happen at PVB with its 360 studios. Most purchasers will want to reserve studios, for which points per night will be about the same as VGF studios, and not the 20 bungalows, for which points per night will actually exceed the VGF GVs. Moreover, those PVB purchasers who can actually afford more than a studio and want a larger room will opt to buying enough points for two connecting studios rather than for a bungalow, assuring more stress on the reservations for studios. Tough few can afford to buy enough points to use those bugallows, all of those bungalow ponts along with studio points will be sold to purchasers wanting studios and connecting studios.

Net result: Disney has created a situation where the demand for studios at a new resort greatly exceeds supply. Studios at all resorts are the ones in highest demand but at older resorts it is nothing like the schism that exists at VGF between studios and other room sizes and will likley exist between studios and bungalows at PVB. That problem is now coming to fruition at VGF. As it gets closer to sell out, members are discovering for high demand times in Oct, Nov, and Dec, they can even be blocked out of studios at 11 months out because other members with vacation start dates just before theirs can reserve nights including their start date before they can reserve it.

DVC at WDW currently has two demand seasons, low to moderate demand season from just after marathon weekend in Jan to near the end of Sep, and a high to extremely high demand season from the end of Sep to marathon weekend in Jan. Though holiday times are more in demand than most other times during that mid Jan to late Sep period, it is far easier to get rooms at Easter time and July 4 time, including at 7 months out, than it is for any time in that last quarter of the year. In fasct the highest demand time during that mid-Jan to late Sep period is the Princess half marathon weekedn in the latter part of Feb.

If your usual and only time to vacation at Disney will be between mid-Jan and late Sep, then you are likely going to be safe with the 11 month window for a studio at either VGF or PVB and will have opportunities for other near park resorts at 7 months out. However, if you are intending to go during DVC's high demand quarter, you could face a risk at times of even being blocked out at 11 months. DVC's extremely high demand times during that quarter are the first two weeks of Dec, Christmas week, the Tues through Fri of Thansgiving week, the Thursday to Monday of Columbus Day weekend, the Thurs to Sun of the weekend after that, and the weekend that either includes Veterans Day or comes just before it. It is those times where there will likely be a risk of being blocked out from studios at VGF and potentially PVB even at 11 months out. There may be a risk even at other times during that quarter but those are the more likely candidates for a problem. Though one might think the problem may not arise at PVB because of the sheer number of studios, the number of points applicable to those bungalows is huge and will be sold on top of all those poionts applicable to studios and unlike VGF, anyone who desires and can afford a larger room at PVB will be getting connecting studios rather than a 1BR or 2BR, which do not exist there.

 

[LisaS]

I then heard ppl were getting 2013 and 2014 points for vgf... Which made it even more attractive.

You get a full set of current UY points when you purchase directly from Disney and at this time, all of the eight possible Use Years (Feb, Mar, Apr, Jun, Aug, Sep, Oct, Dec) are in their 2014 Use Year.

Those who purchased a Dec UY contract would have started with Dec 2013 UY points if they purchased prior to Dec 1, 2014. Any purchases of Dec UY contracts since that time would have started with 2014 UY points. So as of now, nobody is getting 2013 UY points with a purchase of any DVC resort.

And once we get into February, anyone purchasing a Feb UY contract would not get 2014 UY points because they would be in their Feb 2015 UY, so the 2015 UY points would be the current UY points.

Things are a bit different with PVB since it is new construction. Those purchasing Feb or Apr UY contracts will not receive 2014 UY points because the resort does not open until Apr 1, 2015 by which time they will be in their 2015 UY.

 

[Face Like Fizz]

Disney has created a situation where the demand for studios at a new resort greatly exceeds supply. Studios at all resorts are the ones in highest demand but at older resorts it is nothing like the schism that exists at VGF between studios and other room sizes and will likley exist between studios and bungalows at PVB.

Thank you for such an informative post.

Many people are saying it will be easy to book at PVB as it has a large number of studios. I can't see how that will be the case when the proportion of points sold will be very different to the actual studio/bungalow proportions that people want to book. We've bought VGF and PVB points as we think in time we're going to need the 11 month windows for our October visits.

 

[sndral]

I just took a look at VGF availability for Dec.. If I owned there and wanted to book a studio for a vacation starting 11 months from today, I couldn't as both studio views are booked solid 12/1/15 - 12/17/15. It's not booked for tomorrow, so if I got up right as the booking window opened maybe I'd get one. 2 br.s are pretty much gone except for a lone day or two up to 12/12/15 and there's availability from then on.
VGF has 47 studios, 47 1 br.s, 94 2 br.s and 6 GV. How many of those were sold as fixed weeks I don't know.

 

[cbnsoul]

I just took a look at VGF availability for Dec.. If I owned there and wanted to book a studio for a vacation starting 11 months from today, I couldn't as both studio views are booked solid 12/1/15 - 12/17/15. It's not booked for tomorrow, so if I got up right as the booking window opened maybe I'd get one. 2 br.s are pretty much gone except for a lone day or two up to 12/12/15 and there's availability from then on.
VGF has 47 studios, 47 1 br.s, 94 2 br.s and 6 GV. How many of those were sold as fixed weeks I don't know.

There is a good chance you won't get one even if you are online at 8am 11 months out. Believe me, I've tried the last several days and had a hard time securing anything.

 

[Noelle]

Being on the West Coast, I got up at 4:45 this morning to book 2 rooms at VGF at my 11 month mark. I wanted a 2 Bedroom standard view for myself, husband and my daughters and a studio (lakeview or standard) for my parents. Knowing that studios go first, I immediately entered the studio at 5:00 am and was able to secure a lakeview studio for a week. Then I went back to get the 2 bedroom which was easily available. Then after I secured that room, I went back and did a waitlist for the standard studio. I'm hoping the waitlist comes through to keep a few more of my points as I'm frugal with my points, but if not I have both my rooms.

 

[goofy4wdw2]

How are 1 bedrooms to book at 7 months in general? I got one for May at exactly 7 months...was that luck or are 1 BR usually ok at 7 months (except for early December) since studios are in higher demand than 1 BR?

 

[jerseygal]

How are 1 bedrooms to book at 7 months in general? I got one for May at exactly 7 months...was that luck or are 1 BR usually ok at 7 months (except for early December) since studios are in higher demand than 1 BR?

Thought that I read that 1 BR's were "easier" to get since studios are in greater demand! BEST OF LUCK BOOKING!

 

[Minniesgal]

How are 1 bedrooms to book at 7 months in general? I got one for May at exactly 7 months...was that luck or are 1 BR usually ok at 7 months (except for early December) since studios are in higher demand than 1 BR?

1 bedrooms are a lot easier to book, they are still available for early December. To the extent that I am considering an add on to double my points and book a 1 bedroom for 4 nights instead of 2.

 

[drusba]

How are 1 bedrooms to book at 7 months in general? I got one for May at exactly 7 months...was that luck or are 1 BR usually ok at 7 months (except for early December) since studios are in higher demand than 1 BR?

VGF 1BRs are usually the next to fill after studios but have been open even at 7 months out many times. You have to consider seasons. From mid January through late Sep is DVCs low to moderate demand season at WDW and that includes holidays during that time which are somewhat busier but not that much. What you got in May is not surprising as a result but you cannot assume from that that the same thing will happen in the last quarter of the year, DVCs high to extremely high demand season at WDW. It is, for example, far easier to get rooms at near park resorts at Easter time and July 4 time at 7 months out than during any time in the last three months of the year. Studios at VGF are becoming difficult to get at 7 months out year round, but in the last quarter of the year there have now been times in all three months when they were even difficult at 11 months out. 1BRs have been mostly hit or miss in the last quarter at 7 months out with the misses occurring at times in all three of the last three months.

 

[jerseyduke]

Thanks all! We typically travel the end of September, or between dec 4-15 every year.

We were all set to sign on for poly, but recognizing that we have 4 kids and will eventually need a two bedroom we thought vgf might be best as we likely will be able to get into PVB at the 7 mos mark if we wanted. I then heard ppl were getting 2013 and 2014 points for vgf... Which made it even more attractive.

If I were you, I would do one of the following.

1. Buy a fixed week at the VGF for week 49 for the room type you want. You can always cancel this, the points go into your account, and you can book September on the years you want.

2. Buy at the Poly.

I own at the VGF, and i should have bought a fixed week but did not. My plan is to buy a resale contract at a different resort so I have a second option.

If I was only interesting in VGF, i would sell my contract now and buy a fixed week (after calling to confirm availablity). I would not buy points with the intention of using them in early December.