How easy to get BLT?

[beer dave]

We hope it, because we don't do Disney often - when we do, we book eleven months out at our home resort which we are happy with. With no interest in "sleeping around at Disney" more resorts offsite gives us different places to use our points.

If this is the case, you would probably be better off with a time share other than DVC. Less money and many more options.

There isn't a waterpark at River Country and won't be. It would just be another large DVC resort - they don't allow swimming in Bay Lake any longer.

Until actual plans are released for the rumored new resort, no one knows if there is going to be a water park included or not. We all know river country is closed. A replacement water park or pool complex doesn't have to use bay lake for swimming.

 

[crisi]

Until actual plans are released for the rumored new resort, no one knows if there is going to be a water park included or not. We all know river country is closed. A replacement water park or pool complex doesn't have to use bay lake for swimming.

The plans have been leaked. There is no water park.

 

[LisaS]

It has to do with a combination of resort size and popularity. It doesn't matter how old BWV gets - there are a small number of bargain standard view rooms that are very popular at certain times of year. They are HARDER to get now then they were ten years ago - even though the resort is ten years older - because now there are more than twice as many members who might find those rooms attractive. As long as there are events that drive attendance at Epcot area resorts - those rooms will be hard to get.

We really don't know what will happen with BLT. If Disney builds a lot of off property resorts - and those people buy those resorts intending to use them at WDW every other year - BLT will be harder to book ten years from now.

I agree. There is another thing that makes some of the older resorts harder to book over time. As non-owners get shut out time and again at 7 months out for an Epcot resort during F&W or at an MK resort when they want one, they purchase an add-on at that resort to gain the 11-month booking advantage.

For example, Disney can exercise its ROFR on a 150-point BWV or BCV contract and resell it as three 50-point contracts to three new owners, each looking to book a few nights in a studio during F&W or maybe a week every other year. As the number of owners increases, that increases the competition 11 months out, leaving even less inventory for those looking to book 7 months out.

 

[beer dave]

The plans have been leaked. There is no water park.

A version of possible plans has been leaked. Until plans ore confirmed, it is conjecture.

 

[bobbiwoz]

We have two contracts, both with SSR, we stay at all resorts. This past October we had standard studio, and this March we have the same. We are also staying at 1bdrm BC this March too. I would never say anything is impossible, I have always had good luck getting what we wanted.

For how many days? I have been able to get 2-4 days standard studios or 1 bedrooms at BLT at 7 months or less, but I've never tried for longer than that.

 

[crisi]

A version of possible plans has been leaked. Until plans ore confirmed, it is conjecture.

I've been watching DVC build resorts for 15 years now. And I've been watching Disney as a company execute for 30. And I've been watching this board for the 15 I've been watching DVC.

DVC is highly unlikely to build a resort with a waterpark attached - although members here will get really excited about the possible rumor.

Regarding this conversation - Disney is very unlikely to do it, and therefore its unlikely that there will be a significant change to BLT seven month availability. DVC has been in two modes

1) Build small resorts attached to existing Deluxes. The size of these resorts tend to be small enough that their effect on the overall patterns of availability has been - from watching for fifteen years - negligible. BLT, which was a rather large build for "attached to a Deluxe" didn't change booking patterns at the in demand BCV appreciatively - they are still as hard to get as pre-BLT.

2) Build larger resorts where land is available and infrastructure is easy to run (SSR, VAKL-Kidani). But don't make them so much more attractive that their desirability creates balance in the system (i.e. there was a lot of talk about a waterpark at SSR because it would be so big that it would need such an attraction to create system balance). These resorts are big enough to have a negative impact.

DVC has no interest in system balance - they don't care if its harder next year to get BCV during Food and Wine at seven months than it was this year. Or if I'm never able to book a BLT standard view room as a non-owner. They are interested in spending minimum capital to get maximum sales as quickly as they can. That strategy does not bode well for waterparks attached to DVC resorts.

 

[beer dave]

I've been watching DVC build resorts for 15 years now. And I've been watching Disney as a company execute for 30. And I've been watching this board for the 15 I've been watching DVC.

DVC is highly unlikely to build a resort with a waterpark attached - although members here will get really excited about the possible rumor.

Regarding this conversation - Disney is very unlikely to do it, and therefore its unlikely that there will be a significant change to BLT seven month availability. DVC has been in two modes

1) Build small resorts attached to existing Deluxes. The size of these resorts tend to be small enough that their effect on the overall patterns of availability has been - from watching for fifteen years - negligible. BLT, which was a rather large build for "attached to a Deluxe" didn't change booking patterns at the in demand BCV appreciatively - they are still as hard to get as pre-BLT.

2) Build larger resorts where land is available and infrastructure is easy to run (SSR, VAKL-Kidani). But don't make them so much more attractive that their desirability creates balance in the system (i.e. there was a lot of talk about a waterpark at SSR because it would be so big that it would need such an attraction to create system balance). These resorts are big enough to have a negative impact.

DVC has no interest in system balance - they don't care if its harder next year to get BCV during Food and Wine at seven months than it was this year. Or if I'm never able to book a BLT standard view room as a non-owner. They are interested in spending minimum capital to get maximum sales as quickly as they can. That strategy does not bode well for waterparks attached to DVC resorts.

Thank you. All I am looking for is "not likely" as opposed to " are not".

It's a debate about possible future outcomes of booking availability. If they build a large desirable DVC, it won't negatively impact the current availability of BLT. As needs change for making sales of new DVC buildings, the building model may change also. Past does not always dictate future.

 

[skier_pete]

Thank you. All I am looking for is "not likely" as opposed to " are not".

It's a debate about possible future outcomes of booking availability. If they build a large desirable DVC, it won't negatively impact the current availability of BLT. As needs change for making sales of new DVC buildings, the building model may change also. Past does not always dictate future.

Yes, one of the things I read indicated that the next DVC at WL would include a higher concentration of Studios. If they were to start changing to that as a regular model, in theory eventually the availability of studios would increase everywhere. (Generally right now it is much easier to get a 1-bedroom than a studio regardless of location.)

 

[DenLo]

Yes, one of the things I read indicated that the next DVC at WL would include a higher concentration of Studios. If they were to start changing to that as a regular model, in theory eventually the availability of studios would increase everywhere. (Generally right now it is much easier to get a 1-bedroom than a studio regardless of location.)

I agree with this statement as right now the majority, in fact almost all studios are part of a 2 BR lock off. A few of the resorts have dedicated studios but those numbers are very limited. If DVC does go the route of the Poly where the majority of villas are studios then it could be that getting into studios will be easier. The trick is will studios get larger and have any additional amenities? Washers and dryers within the studio would be a big plus. And if DVC does not add washers and dryers in studios, then it will be necessary to increase the number of washers and dryers available in the laundry room.

 

[beer dave]

Yes, one of the things I read indicated that the next DVC at WL would include a higher concentration of Studios. If they were to start changing to that as a regular model, in theory eventually the availability of studios would increase everywhere. (Generally right now it is much easier to get a 1-bedroom than a studio regardless of location.)

Interesting... and if the new studios are in a resort which for whatever reason has a high desirability, and the points are much higher than the others, (poly?) then members who have limited points and exclusively stay in studios for length of stay will book up the inexpensive studios even faster. Good bye 7 month window? ( for studios?)

If they do a flood of studios and keep the res points in line with the rest, It may get harder to book 1 and 2 beds. Although at the new buy in prices, I think people will want low points accommodations primarily. They might buy poly, but when they realize how much further their points could go elsewhere, they may make begin to make a booking change. This is why I think D needs to keep the desirability increasing-- to make the sale. After that, it falls where it falls.

When we bought, (03) it was partly for the capacity of the rooms (4 kids). Never stayed in a studio, so I don't know that battle. Now kids are getting older, and we booked our first studio for this spring. (mid march) Booked WL a month ago and wait list for standard studio at BLT came through last week.

 

[skier_pete]

Back to the original posters question - I am slowly surveying the entire year at all the resorts - primarily studios, but 1 bedrooms are generally easier to get. Based on this survey, getting into BLT from January through June at the 7-month mark is actual quite easy, at least for lake view - with the possible exception of (a) January and February marthons and (b) Easter. By 6 months or so it's pretty booked up, but at 7-months it seems fairly available. I think this pattern will continue through to September.

The MK view rooms (only 20% of the inventory) are harder to get but are available, while the standard view (another 20%) are near impossible at 7 months.