How come DCL isn't selling out?

And thats my point. Different things for different people. Disney knows they dont have to be all things for all people. The demand for their product is high. They dont care that the family who is Gold CastAway Club Member is now going to Royal, because there are first time cruisers replacing them.
Clearly they aren't. Because DCL isn't selling out like it used to. They never used to need to discount summer. Something is not working and when you look at what Royal is doing with the Icon and Utopia focused on families with kids of all ages it feels like DCL is falling behind.

To me it is a bit like Disney's response to Epic Universe... which as it stands will be several year long retheme of Dinoland in AK and I don't even want to hazard a guess as to how long Beyond Thunder Mountain takes (if it even happens- Disney already promised several attractions that were scrapped - Play pavilion, Mary Poppins Ride, & Main Street Theater). It feels like Disney as a company is losing it's way IMO, too shortsighted these days.
 
And thats my point. Different things for different people. Disney knows they dont have to be all things for all people. The demand for their product is high. They dont care that the family who is Gold CastAway Club Member is now going to Royal, because there are first time cruisers replacing them.
But are enough first time cruisers replacing them? If the Wish was built with young families in mind, and enough were booking the ship, there wouldn’t be GTY rates all summer.

I think the Wish is priced too high for such short cruises. I would much rather pay a little more and sail a week on the Fantasy.
 
But are enough first time cruisers replacing them? If the Wish was built with young families in mind, and enough were booking the ship, there wouldn’t be GTY rates all summer.

I think the Wish is priced too high for such short cruises. I would much rather pay a little more and sail a week on the Fantasy.

Different markets do things different. For example, from what I have seen over the last 2 years, UK people are booking cruises 6 months in advance only. UK people are price sensitive, and look for bargains and deals. So there are UK people now booking cruises for July and August, but who wouldnt have known about or even have thought about a cruise during opening week back in 2023.
 
Different markets do things different. For example, from what I have seen over the last 2 years, UK people are booking cruises 6 months in advance only. UK people are price sensitive, and look for bargains and deals. So there are UK people now booking cruises for July and August, but who wouldnt have known about or even have thought about a cruise during opening week back in 2023.
I know the UK travel market for Disney is strong and improving for DCL but DCL is not going to fill it's ships year round based on the UK market alone. Also at 6 months the rooms weren't discounted yet- they are discounting 2 to 3 months before sailing because they aren't filling.

DCL wants to fill their ships with everyone paying full fare- but they can no longer do that and with two more ships coming stateside and another in Asia I think they might have bitten off more than they can chew.
 

Clearly they aren't. Because DCL isn't selling out like it used to. They never used to need to discount summer. Something is not working and when you look at what Royal is doing with the Icon and Utopia focused on families with kids of all ages it feels like DCL is falling behind.

To me it is a bit like Disney's response to Epic Universe... which as it stands will be several year long retheme of Dinoland in AK and I don't even want to hazard a guess as to how long Beyond Thunder Mountain takes (if it even happens- Disney already promised several attractions that were scrapped - Play pavilion, Mary Poppins Ride, & Main Street Theater). It feels like Disney as a company is losing it's way IMO, too shortsighted these days.
Wages aren't keeping up with inflation. Discretionary spending always gets cut out of the budget first. I'm not surprised at all that they are not selling out. It's a lot harder to save and pay for a Disney cruise then it was 3-5 years ago.
 
I know the UK travel market for Disney is strong and improving for DCL but DCL is not going to fill it's ships year round based on the UK market alone. Also at 6 months the rooms weren't discounted yet- they are discounting 2 to 3 months before sailing because they aren't filling.

DCL wants to fill their ships with everyone paying full fare- but they can no longer do that and with two more ships coming stateside and another in Asia I think they might have bitten off more than they can chew.
GT rates and discounts aren't anything new. I've booked those rates since 2011.
 
GT rates and discounts aren't anything new. I've booked those rates since 2011.
They aren't new but offering them in summer has not been needed for awhile. DCL increasing their fleet at the same time that, as you pointed out, discretionary spending is down might be more of an issue for DCL than they realize. Especially since they are heavily focusing on families with kids 10 & under and keep cutting offering for the older kids, teens, and making adult spaces smaller... Kids grow up, birth rates are down, they might want to rethink their strategy.
 
Look into Celebrity on an 7 or 8-night cruise out of Ft Lauderdale to the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao). Two Sea Days each way. Aruba is often a long port day when ABC is the itinerary (they are very close together).

The location is just off the northern coast of South America, in an area considered to be out of the Hurricane zone. (When we visited last May, they were wrapping the season.)

Each island has its own feel and geography, but all are or were part of the Netherlands Antilles.

Aruba is especially focused on American tourism. Southwest flies there, there are many timeshares, and even US Immigration for outbound flights is completed in the airport (no need to do when you arrive in the States.

Bonaire is considered a divers’ paradise, with the option to dive from a ship or the shore. It is a laid-back country with a small population count. They have more elevation change than mostly-flat Aruba. Caves, donkeys, salt flats, flamingos, and a bunch of beaches. A fun activity is a golf cart rental (the local drivers are very kind - and no blaring horns at slow drivers). Bonaire is known to limit cruise ships, so finding a date a ship can visit may take a little searching.

Curaçao has colorful buildings lining the sides of its deep harbor. You can cross the harbor on a pontoon bridge which moves out of the way for ships entering/ exiting. There is a small ferry for backup. Lots of beaches here, also. This is probably more European influenced.

Celebrity is owned by Royal Caribbean and is their next level / more Premium and more adult-focused.

This itinerary was offered, alternating with an itinerary that included Barbados, this winter (I watched daily blogs by Captain Kate, their best known Captain).

Beyond is a newer ship than the Summit.

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I'll be doing the 8-night ABC July 27-August 4!!
 
Clearly they aren't. Because DCL isn't selling out like it used to. They never used to need to discount summer. Something is not working and when you look at what Royal is doing with the Icon and Utopia focused on families with kids of all ages it feels like DCL is falling behind.
I can't tell you how DCL cruises are doing out of other ports but here are a couple notes and charts showing DCL cruises out of Canaveral.

- Pre-Covid the 2 main ships were the Dream and Fantasy. The Wish has replaced the Dream alongside the Fantasy as the 2 DCL options out of Port Canaveral
- Pre-Covid the Dream averaged 100 voyages/yr at ~95% occupancy. The Wish is averaging 105 voyages/yr at ~93% occupancy.
- The Fantasy took 52-53 voyages/yr at 91-92% occupancy pre-covid. Today they are still running at 52-53 voyages/yr but at a slightly lower 90-91% occupancy.
- Overall Occupancy is down about 1.5% from pre-Covid. ~94% pre-Covid vs 92.5% now.
- In saying that, the extra sailings from the Wish have realized total passenger counts coming in higher than pre-covid for the 2 main DCL sailings out of Port Canaveral over the last 12-13months.

All data compiled from: https://www.portcanaveral.com/About/Public-Meetings/Watch-Meetings

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It’s lost the magic. As everywhere the staff/ cast members are over worked, expected to do more and are forced to be concerned about surveys for their job protection. I don’t feel the magic anymore.
 
But are enough first time cruisers replacing them? If the Wish was built with young families in mind, and enough were booking the ship, there wouldn’t be GTY rates all summer.

I think the Wish is priced too high for such short cruises. I would much rather pay a little more and sail a week on the Fantasy.

Too bad those week-long cruises on Fantasy are going the way of the dodo soon.
 
Disney: On the brink of disaster (at least according to forum sites)

DCL will become a $1B+ operating income business after the rest of the new ships come online.

I remember back in 2020 during the shut down, people on the forums said DCL would never survive in Europe without American passengers. Summer 2021 DCL did a summer of staycation cruises which were such a success that they now sell out The Dream and Fantasy ships and have opened a new market demographic.
 
I can't tell you how DCL cruises are doing out of other ports but here are a couple notes and charts showing DCL cruises out of Canaveral.

- Pre-Covid the 2 main ships were the Dream and Fantasy. The Wish has replaced the Dream alongside the Fantasy as the 2 DCL options out of Port Canaveral
- Pre-Covid the Dream averaged 100 voyages/yr at ~95% occupancy. The Wish is averaging 105 voyages/yr at ~93% occupancy.
- The Fantasy took 52-53 voyages/yr at 91-92% occupancy pre-covid. Today they are still running at 52-53 voyages/yr but at a slightly lower 90-91% occupancy.
- Overall Occupancy is down about 1.5% from pre-Covid. ~94% pre-Covid vs 92.5% now.
- In saying that, the extra sailings from the Wish have realized total passenger counts coming in higher than pre-covid for the 2 main DCL sailings out of Port Canaveral over the last 12-13months.

All data compiled from: https://www.portcanaveral.com/About/Public-Meetings/Watch-Meetings

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View attachment 869563

got to love actual data over anecdotes... thank you!
 
I can't tell you how DCL cruises are doing out of other ports but here are a couple notes and charts showing DCL cruises out of Canaveral.

- Pre-Covid the 2 main ships were the Dream and Fantasy. The Wish has replaced the Dream alongside the Fantasy as the 2 DCL options out of Port Canaveral
- Pre-Covid the Dream averaged 100 voyages/yr at ~95% occupancy. The Wish is averaging 105 voyages/yr at ~93% occupancy.
- The Fantasy took 52-53 voyages/yr at 91-92% occupancy pre-covid. Today they are still running at 52-53 voyages/yr but at a slightly lower 90-91% occupancy.
- Overall Occupancy is down about 1.5% from pre-Covid. ~94% pre-Covid vs 92.5% now.
- In saying that, the extra sailings from the Wish have realized total passenger counts coming in higher than pre-covid for the 2 main DCL sailings out of Port Canaveral over the last 12-13months.

All data compiled from: https://www.portcanaveral.com/About/Public-Meetings/Watch-Meetings

View attachment 869567
View attachment 869564
View attachment 869562
View attachment 869563
This is helpful info but doesn’t distinguish what percent of guests paid full price or OBB and what percent joined in last minute with VGT/OGT/IGT rates.
When those restricted rates were first introduced, it was very last minute, usually well after FPDD. Now they are sometimes released well before FP is due.
 
They aren't new but offering them in summer has not been needed for awhile. DCL increasing their fleet at the same time that, as you pointed out, discretionary spending is down might be more of an issue for DCL than they realize. Especially since they are heavily focusing on families with kids 10 & under and keep cutting offering for the older kids, teens, and making adult spaces smaller... Kids grow up, birth rates are down, they might want to rethink their strategy.
I guess it depends on where you sail to. I've gotten them in Europe for years and I've seen them on Alaska cruises many times. I think this might be the first Summer I've ever gone to the Caribbean or Bahamas or even thought about going. I couldn't tell you about Summer out of Florida.
Reduction in discretionary spending is going to be bad for all businesses. It's not like we've haven't been through this before. Disney is increasing supply when demand is slowing. Naturally prices will come down which isn't a bad thing. They'll just close the gap with other cruise lines.
I don't ever see Disney being an adult cruise lines. Disney is not liked by a lot of people for a variety of reasons and that is pretty much new over the last few years. The last thing you should do as a company is become polarizing.
 
Disney: On the brink of disaster (at least according to forum sites)

DCL will become a $1B+ operating income business after the rest of the new ships come online.
I don't think anyone is saying that Disney is on the brink of disaster. They seem to survive every downturn in the economy. Everything goes in cycles and prices change accordingly.
 

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