How accurate are the wait times?

[wgeo]

So how accurate are the wait times that Disney posts on attractions? We didn't do a whole lot of rides on Standby during this vacation, but almost every ride we did was not really accurate based on the posted wait time. For example, in between FP on 5/29 in MK we did Little Mermaid because it was listed as a 5 minute wait - took 20. That's far enough apart that it was very noticeable. Usually things were only 10 minutes off or so, which I consider just normal.

However, today 5/30 during a very very rainy AK day we got in line for FOP with a 120 minute posted wait and were sitting on our "banshees" at the 80 minute mark. There were 3 people very close ahead of me wearing the "timer necklace" things, and they did change the wait time to 105 minutes, but again that's really not close to 80 at all.

Is Disney doing this on purpose - or are things that fluid that they change that frequently?

 

[epcotobsessed]

They have always been accurate or an underestimate in my experience. We've stood in line a few times for Soarin' while it's listed as a 20-30 minute wait and it's been twice that (and I'm talking to even get in line to watch the video, not to get on the ride), Pirates often underestimates, and so does TOT, in my experience. I pretty much never do standby because I hate how inaccurate the posted times are - personal choice.

 

[hakepb]

It is a form of crowd control (overstated times to guide guests to other rides) and a general overestimation.
But there’s not much Disney can do if a ton of people exit the train or a parade/show and enter a ride with a 5 minute time.

 

[wgeo]

They have always been accurate or an underestimate in my experience. We've stood in line a few times for Soarin' while it's listed as a 20-30 minute wait and it's been twice that (and I'm talking to even get in line to watch the video, not to get on the ride), Pirates often underestimates, and so does TOT, in my experience. I pretty much never do standby because I hate how inaccurate the posted times are - personal choice.

Yeah I don't ride standby very often which is perhaps why I was surprised that it was always off this trip.

 

[wgeo]

It is a form of crowd control (overstated times to guide guests to other rides) and a general overestimation.
But there’s not much Disney can do if a ton of people exit the train or a parade/show and enter a ride with a 5 minute time.

Very true - but if 3 people ahead of me turn in one of those necklaces, Disney clearly knows the wait time was lower on FOP, yet the didn't change the official number. That was interesting to me, because at the time lots of rides were down due to weather, you think they would have given an accurate number as there really aren't a plethora of indoor restaurant/shops to absorb the rainy crowds in AK when lots of rides are down.

 

[hakepb]

Very true - but if 3 people ahead of me turn in one of those necklaces, Disney clearly knows the wait time was lower on FOP, yet the didn't change the official number. That was interesting to me, because at the time lots of rides were down due to weather, you think they would have given an accurate number as there really aren't a plethora of indoor restaurant/shops to absorb the rainy crowds in AK when lots of rides are down.

Yes, Disney tracks a separate “actual wait time” number (based on the few months that Josh was publishing both numbers)
Disney also knows how many unused FP+ that could be redeemed within the next hour.
It seems Disney posts times with a general curve rather than wild swings.

 

[FFstreetDoc]

Most of the time we find them pretty close. Usually a little overestimated. Keep in mind, if they hand off a red card for timing the line and it takes 40 minutes to get there. The dynamic of the park and line may have changed some. For example, we bolted to SDMT right after the fireworks. on our last trip in April. The standby line showed 60 minutes but we walked right on. We did this three times in a row and that number never changed. Now that is rare but an example. We do use an app that gives a pretty good, real number for wait times. Members of the site contribute to give live wait times throughout the day. It is fun to get involved with the wait time app and watch actual times.

 

[gharter]

I have found them to be all over the place. Some are accurate, some are longer than posted and others are less than posted.
I believe some of that is intentional to move people from one popular ride to others. I also find closer to closing the wait time is often less than posted.

 

[CAS239]

I've never been in a standby line and thought it was way off the estimated wait time. But I also don't get in a line that's more than a 60 min wait, and from going so often we can tell by looking at some of the lines if it's an accurate wait.

I think overall their pretty accurate, I think late in the evening either they inflate it to discourage people from getting in line.. Because you know, CM's have to go home as well. They don't want people piling in because they see FoP is really a 40 min wait vs 100 min. But I also think the red badge time checkers play a big part. You might get in a line when it says 40 min wait, but 3 min later someone with the red badge gets to the front of the line and right after you entered it changed to a 60 min wait, or the opposite and now a 20 min wait

 

[Haley R]

I've only felt like it was completely off one time when we were waiting for Dinosaur. It said a 30 minute wait and we had barely moved in about 20 minutes. We ended up leaving the line because none of us wanted to ride it that bad. Otherwise, I haven't felt like they have been too far off. We normally use FP anyway or ride at park opening/close when lines are shorter.

 

[Remy is Up]

Works both ways. Watch touring plans they are close.

 

[drp4video]

We were there May 12-16 and noticed stand by lines were really off, mostly the line time was a lot less than what was stated on the wait time sign. Example, Pan. The CM and the sign said 60 minutes which was weird because I noticed very few people in line and usually that line is jammed. We waited about 20 minutes. Same with Space Mountain. A few rides were accurate but most were less, which was awesome.

 

[scrapquitler]

Waits tend to be overstated. The experience you had with the posted time being 120 and the actual wait being 80 minutes is more normal than the posted 5 minutes vs. 20 actual minutes that you also experienced.

 

[PSUGuy]

With the exception of one time on Jungle Cruise our experience has been that the posted times are pessimistic, we actually get on well below the time. I've seen 20 minutes for Dinosaur only to walk straight to the pre-show.

Bill From PA

 

[tex1989]

I think in "normal" situations they tend to be accurate, but at other times I think they use them for other purposes. We were there the week of 5/19 to 5/26. The big one that was way off was Toy Story Mania. Now to be fair when we booked FP's at 60 days there were none to be had because they had closed it down to 1 track because of the work to Toy Story Land. But by the time we got there all three tracks were open and the wait time was listed as 60 minutes one day. Wife and walked down to the ride and with the construction that area now dead ends at the exit for the newest track. As we walked pass the door to the inside que area I looked in and saw there was no longer an inside que. Basically you walked in got your 3D glasses and headed up the stairs over the track and to the ride. The standby que was outside and started on ride side of the walk way crossed over to the other side and then back. Even with that it was not that long. We waited 15 minutes from getting in line to getting on the ride. Came back later and the wait was 12 minutes. One day after using our FP's at MK we went to DS and was able to get a FP for TSM same day which is usually pretty difficult to do. Otherwise we waited 45 minutes for SM at MK with a 80 minute posting and 25 minutes for a 35 minute posting at PP.

 

[FSU Girl]

I try to only use FP to go on rides now so I'm not in standby as often. For the most part they have been pretty accurate for me. I know that they make them seem worse than they are near the end of the day to discourage people from getting in line. If they are off it's usually around ten minutes so not super noticeable. Usually when a line has a 5 or 10 minute posted its usually a walk on.

 

[MissyTX]

The only wait time that I felt was right on was Peter Pan's Flight. We ended up not getting a fast pass for it and waited for 60 minutes....and it definitely was 60 minutes. We waited for a posted wait time on FOP for 120 minutes but got in right around the 90 minute mark.

 

[Dan Murphy]

We use Touring Plans Lines. Gives Disney posted and expected. Very accurate.

https://touringplans.com/disney-world-app

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

Sometimes accurate, sometimes not. When I'm suspicious that it's not accurate I often ask the CM on duty if the time is accurate. I've never had a CM tell me wrong on this (on plenty of other things, yes, wait time no). They even tell me the truth right before closing (I had a TSM CM tell me it was walk on when the sign said 20 mins at closing). Asked the Soarin CM this last trip after the time went from 40 to 60 to 20 mins in the span of about 15 mins if it was accurate at 20. He said it would likely be less than that and it was a little less than 15.

 

[RllngRckBrw]

Most of the time we find them pretty close. Usually a little overestimated. Keep in mind, if they hand off a red card for timing the line and it takes 40 minutes to get there. The dynamic of the park and line may have changed some. For example, we bolted to SDMT right after the fireworks. on our last trip in April. The standby line showed 60 minutes but we walked right on. We did this three times in a row and that number never changed. Now that is rare but an example. We do use an app that gives a pretty good, real number for wait times. Members of the site contribute to give live wait times throughout the day. It is fun to get involved with the wait time app and watch actual times.

The “red card” system seems so inaccurate to me and I feel like it has outlived its usefulness. Disney has the technology to be able to electronically count every body as it enters the line. Combine that number with the amount of fast passes booked (minus the percentage of usual “no-shows”) divided by the rise capacity. That seems to be a much more efficient way. If an outside entity (Touring Plans) are more capable of identifying ride times than Disney is, its obvious that Disney don’t want us to know and are using the information to manipulate our decision making.

That being said, I look to the ride times as an “estimate” but have a general touring plan that lets me avoid most of those lines anyway.