How accurate are the UG crowd levels??

[BBGirl]

OK I have read LOTS of threds of people just getting back saying that the parks are empty or as empty as Disney gets and right now is listed at 6-7 for the parks. My question is when we are going to be there, Nov27-Dec3, can we really except this type of crowd level also as our crowd level is a 4? To me that says it should be less crowded but I have also read MANY threads saying its going to be so busy this year over this time frame.. HELP
TIA

 

[lentesta]

Hi BBGirl,

If you're asking how accurate the predictions are, there's a link to the Crowd Blog that shows the actual wait times we measured in the parks, versus what we predicted.

Since the new Best Days calendar went online in May, I think we're averaging within +/- 7 minutes of the predicted range. Certainly, there'll be days when we're completely off the mark - there's no way around that. Think "best available" rather than "perfect."

Hope this helps!

Len

 

[jctwizzer]

Based on visits to WDW in early Dec. for the past ten years, I'd say that an estimate of level 4 for that period is low. Particularly during the past three years crowds during that period have increased significantly, and imho a 6, or possibly 7, would be more realistic. MVMCP has had an impact.

 

[erikthewise]

Keep in mind the the UG crowd level is not determined as a ratio, i.e. a crowd level of 6 does not necessarily mean 60% of maximum capacity. Maybe Len can clarify this further.

 

[meatballsmom]

Ok, forgive me in advance for being stupid, but what are the UG crowd levels and where do you find them?

 

[lentesta]

Hey Erikthewise. Nice to hear from you.

The scale is supposed to translate easily to wait times by multiplying by ten minutes. So a rating of 6 is roughly a worst-case wait of 60 minutes at the MK's headliner attractions. (The actual prediction is a range of 55-64 minutes, but you get the idea.)

I'm working on an update for the next three months, since November hours were just posted. In doing so, I did an update of how busy the Magic Kingdom has been on each day of the week for 2005 (i.e., with the new EMH schedule). Below is a ranking of the busiest days of the week as of Saturday, September 10:

Monday (Average peak wait ~ 84 minutes)
Thursday
Sunday
Friday
Saturday
Wednesday
Tuesday (Average peak wait ~ 55 minutes)

Off-season peaks have a better chance of being below these average, by definition.

Hope this helps.

Len

 

[thaggie]

Last year in September I went on Tuesday 9/21 and there was hardly a wiat for anything.

I will be there 12/2 - 12/10. Tuesday is the lightest day in your ranking and Monday is the highest. However, MK EMH days are on a Wednesday and MVMCP is on Tuesday and Thursday.

So I was thinking that Monday would be a better day to spend the day at MK than Tues., Wed., or Thursday. I am I off base in this thinking?

 

[nowellsl]

Ok, forgive me in advance for being stupid, but what are the UG crowd levels and where do you find them?

They're in the book Unofficial Guide to Disney World. I just purchased the 2006 edition recently. It has tons of information.

Lentesta - keep up the good work - love the new edition!

 

[ZachnElli]

I have a question for Len. I got the new UG and the crowd levels for when we are going in March is ranked as a 10 all week, the only time March thru April marked as 10's. The week of Easter, in April this year, is ranked anywhere from 6-8, that doesn't make sense to me. The week we are going this year was Easter week last year. Are they going by last year's crowd level? I expect it to be crowded, but not more crowded than Easter week.

 

[jrogers345]

OK I have read LOTS of threds of people just getting back saying that the parks are empty or as empty as Disney gets and right now is listed at 6-7 for the parks. My question is when we are going to be there, Nov27-Dec3, can we really except this type of crowd level also as our crowd level is a 4? To me that says it should be less crowded but I have also read MANY threads saying its going to be so busy this year over this time frame.. HELP
TIA

I've been wondering how busy it's gonna be when we're there. We're going before Thanksgiving - Friday before - 11/18 and leaving Tuesday 11/22. I figured that most people are arriving on Wednesday for Thanksgiving trip?? Right? Wrong? Who is arriving before Wednesday??

 

[ryanmilla]

I have a question for Len. I got the new UG and the crowd levels for when we are going in March is ranked as a 10 all week, the only time March thru April marked as 10's. The week of Easter, in April this year, is ranked anywhere from 6-8, that doesn't make sense to me. The week we are going this year was Easter week last year. Are they going by last year's crowd level? I expect it to be crowded, but not more crowded than Easter week.

ZachnElli,
We are going around the same time and I had the same question. Found out that they (Len) have adjusted the crowd levels for that time. From the data they were getting for spring breaks throughout the country, they have now adjusted them down to a 6-7, I believe. You can see the new crowd levels on the UG website, TouringPlans (http://www.touringplans.com/CrowdBlog.html).

Hope this helps.

And thanks Len for calming my nerves for our March trip with the new numbers!

 

[ZachnElli]

ZachnElli,
We are going around the same time and I had the same question. Found out that they (Len) have adjusted the crowd levels for that time. From the data they were getting for spring breaks throughout the country, they have now adjusted them down to a 6-7, I believe. You can see the new crowd levels on the UG website, TouringPlans (http://www.touringplans.com/CrowdBlog.html).

Hope this helps.

Yes!!! It helps a ton!! Thanks so much! We are taking my parents and didn't want to run into that big a crowd!! Thanks again, oh the link didn't work btw.

 

[ryanmilla]

....oh the link didn't work btw.

Sorry about that. If you go to the home page (http://www.touringplans.com) there is a link there to the Crowd Blog. Right now it is dated. August 30th.

 

[erikthewise]

The reason ryanmilla's link didn't work is because the right parenthesis following it was sucked up into the URL. This is a problem that has been around for a long time. To avoid it, just be sure to leave a space after any link you post.

 

[ryanmilla]

Thanks for the tip! I'll make sure to do that in the future.

 

[BBGirl]

THanks guys..