How Accurate Are the Disney Wait Time Sites?

[wisblue]

Seems with the MagicBands this would be an easy bit of data to compile:

User A is now boarding ride Y. User A first came into proximity of the ride Y queuing area 25 minutes ago. User A did not have a FP+ reservation for ride Y. Add User A Stand By time of 25 minutes for ride Y to current calculation bucket, remove oldest entry. Recalculate average wait time. Charge $thousands for latest data.

The data is easy enough to gather, but it still doesn't answer what people really want to know. All that User A's experience tells you is that the standby wait for Ride Y was 25 minutes 25 minutes ago. If nobody got in the line behind User A, the wait time would now be zero. On the other hand, if several major tour groups entered the line behind him, the current wait would be a lot longer.

User B who enters the line at the same time User A is boarding the ride wants to know how long he is going to wait, not how long User A waited.

The posted wait time is Disney's best guess of how long the wait is going to be and, in our experience, that posted time is usually inflated so that the actual wait is shorter than the posted wait a lot more often that it is as long or longer. Fast passes (paper or FP+) make estimating the standby wait that much more difficult because it is impossible to know for sure how many people are going to be coming with FPs in the next 10, 20, or 30 minutes.

 

[Brian Noble]

the data is derived from the red cards periodically handed to guests in both the SB and the FP lines - so it's not possible to differentiate which "actual" time last sampled is currently being displayed, the SB line or the FP line.

I believe (but could be wrong) that the SB and FP lines have different "start" tap points, so Disney can track the difference between the two.

 

[mjhannaf]

I believe (but could be wrong) that the SB and FP lines have different "start" tap points, so Disney can track the difference between the two.

That is true. I'm sure Disney could differentiate, but we could only make educated guesses.

 

[Laketravis]

I believe (but could be wrong) that the SB and FP lines have different "start" tap points, so Disney can track the difference between the two.

They do, and Disney can tell the difference between the two from their side of their database, but my understanding is that the "Actual" field they provide (or did provide) thru the API is the "last measured" - which was either SB or FP.

 

[Brian Noble]

So no one should be sad that it is gone then.

 

[soniam]

I used Touring plans WDW Lines over thanksgiving and it was pretty accurate. Ill use it again in August when we go.

We like Touring Plans WDW Lines app too. Used it in late July. It shows 3 times: posted, expected, and reported. Posted is Disney's time. Expected is TP's estimation. Reported is live reports. However, reported doesn't show up with the others. I wish it did. You have to the bottom of the times page and select the reported times link.

BTW, TP shows times for Sum of All Thrills. I don't know why the others aren't.

 

[zummi525]

Since it has been down a few days does this mean it is gone for ever?

 

[mjhannaf]

Since it has been down a few days does this mean it is gone for ever?

More than likely, unfortunately

 

[Plaid Princess]

im not going until december and i enjoy looking at it several times a week just because am hoping everything is running smoothly when i will need it the most at christmas week!

I can help you out there... all wait times will be insane. Just pick a line and stick with it.