Here now...crowd calendars WAY off!

[GPC0321]

Can somebody paint me a picture of what horrible crowds in the parks are like? Are we talking shoulder-to-shoulder grid-lock with people inching along or even at a standstill? I've been in some really crowded situations (Black Friday at Wal-Mart, State Fair on opening Saturday, Centennial Park at Atlanta Olympics) where the above description held true...just a mass of humanity.
Just trying to get a feel for what a "10" or "insane" crowd levels are like at WDW.

 

[awalker1015]

Can somebody paint me a picture of what horrible crowds in the parks are like? Are we talking shoulder-to-shoulder grid-lock with people inching along or even at a standstill? I've been in some really crowded situations (Black Friday at Wal-Mart, State Fair on opening Saturday, Centennial Park at Atlanta Olympics) where the above description held true...just a mass of humanity.
Just trying to get a feel for what a "10" or "insane" crowd levels are like at WDW.

It's so relative I think. We were in MK back in march on a day given a 10 by easywdw and TP. Fantasyland was pretty congested but honestly we felt it was manageable. We had FP in the afternoon but rode most headliners at rope drop. I guess right after lunch was the worst. But we were able to watch the afternoon parade with a decent view. So some of it I think depends on your perception.

 

[alliecat523]

Agree. I've been in March on a 10 day as well but didn't think it was horrible. Yes the lines are long and there lots of people but it's still manageable.

 

[GPC0321]

It's so relative I think. We were in MK back in march on a day given a 10 by easywdw and TP. Fantasyland was pretty congested but honestly we felt it was manageable. We had FP in the afternoon but rode most headliners at rope drop. I guess right after lunch was the worst. But we were able to watch the afternoon parade with a decent view. So some of it I think depends on your perception.

Right, that's kind of what I figured. When I think "insane crowds", I think of the State Fair this year. I'd never seen it that crowded, and I always go on opening Saturday. It's always very packed by the afternoon, but we've never gotten into complete grid-lock. You literally couldn't move, and people were standing shoulder-to-shoulder. It took a few moments before we could start inching along again. And this was nowhere near any rides or games. We waited in line for almost 15 minutes just to see some decorated cakes. Getting through the exhibit halls to see the vegetables and livestock was pretty much shoulder-to-shoulder crowds. It. Was. Crazy.

So, I guess if I'm prepared for that, I should be okay. Hopefully I'll be pleasantly surprised. LOL.

 

[goofy4prez]

While I agree with the gist of your posts in the thread, I would be floored if the last week of December on ANY year was a 3-4 on the crowd calendar.

OOP's my bad; that's what happens when one is posting while trying to work. LOL. It was the first week of December just after the Thanksgiving crowds left as according to both of the popular crowd calendars.

 

[Jetta8300]

We have noticed from the last few trips that weather is a huge factor, and crowd calendars do not predict the weather obviously. We always go during uncrowded times, and last trip in February we had to leave the MK on our last day. Crowds were supposed to be a 3 that day. But it rained the two previous days, pretty hard, and the parks were dead. Once the sun came out everyone headed to the MK. Everything single ride was well over and hour wait, with some being well over 2 hours. It was a beautiful day.

 

[hunan6]

One humble primary source--we are here now. MK crowded yesterday, but I've seen it much worse. It is worse than I expected, especially having consulted multiple crowd calendars. At the same time, we used FP for typically long wait rides, and nothing else was a longer wait than about 40 minutes. The craziest line I saw was for Columbia Harbour House around noon. Wow. Epcot today, last day of food and wine, busy, but similar to MK yesterday. Did not wait longer than four or five minutes for food kiosks. All-in-all, not as slow as when I usually come (week following Dr. King's birthday), but not so bad.

 

[5kidsmommy]

Park Hoppers are your friend.

This is the first trip we have had park hoppers and that is due to "free" dining. I will never do WDW without them again. We did MK this morning, it was busy but we got everything done we wanted to do before our brunch at CM. we then went back to our resort for a bit but I noticed that AK has really short wait times so we hopped over there (in the car) and did the few rides we wanted several times and went back to the resort. We rode EE and Dinosaur twice each and Kali and we were only gone for about 90 minutes total and it only took so long because we kept stop for photos.

 

[sdsatl]

Can somebody paint me a picture of what horrible crowds in the parks are like? Are we talking shoulder-to-shoulder grid-lock with people inching along or even at a standstill? I've been in some really crowded situations (Black Friday at Wal-Mart, State Fair on opening Saturday, Centennial Park at Atlanta Olympics) where the above description held true...just a mass of humanity.
Just trying to get a feel for what a "10" or "insane" crowd levels are like at WDW.

Oh, man. I was at the '96 Olympics, too (my family was actually in the park during the bombing). I'd forgotten all about this, but those are the biggest crowds I've ever experienced anywhere, and I've never experienced anything on that level at Disney. It is what I imagine, though, when people talk about Christmas crowds.

 

[TexasPete]

Oh, man. I was at the '96 Olympics, too (my family was actually in the park during the bombing). I'd forgotten all about this, but those are the biggest crowds I've ever experienced anywhere, and I've never experienced anything on that level at Disney. It is what I imagine, though, when people talk about Christmas crowds.

I was also at the Atlanta Olympics (not the night of the bombing though). Last December, we went to MK on a non-party night to see MSEP and Elsa turn the castle to ice. The crowd from the front of the castle through the hub was shoulder to shoulder, impossible to move (lots of walls still up). It wasn't as massive as the Olympics, but in both situations, I was worried that if anything went wrong, there would be stampede and people would get hurt.

 

[Stubbzilla]

Can somebody paint me a picture of what horrible crowds in the parks are like? Are we talking shoulder-to-shoulder grid-lock with people inching along or even at a standstill?

Went to DL the day after Christmas 7 years ago. I could have picked up my feet and the crowd's shoulders pressing in on me would have moved me along. I couldn't have fallen down because there was no place for my body to fall. I'll never do that again. We still had a good time.

We're here at WDW now. MK Sunday, Epcot yesterday. It's been fine. It feels crowded enough that a good plan is a necessity. I've gone in February and had days where we threw out the plan and did whatever because the crowds were so light.

The wall of rope drop people for Test Track this morning was scary. I wouldn't do that with small children.

The weather is extremely nice

 

[jlsmith376]

Touring plans is reporting that yesterday was a 10 in MK. It was predicted to be a 5. We were there from 9-2 and it was the most crowded we've experienced at MK. This week seems more like spring break crowds. When we arrived the wait times weren't too bad but by 11 everything had a decent wait. it was a morning EMH day and a Monday so we expected it to be crowded but not this far off from the predictions. The whole week we've been here has been way off from the predictions. I think we'll stick to the arrive at rope drop and leave by noon strategy in the future and ignore the crowd predictions.

 

[GPC0321]

I looked at the wait times on MDE last night at 9:30 before I went to bed. I figured that late at night the waits wouldn't be all that long. Wrong! I saw 80 minute waits (I think 7DMT and maybe Peter Pan?) and the one that really floored me was a 50 minute wait for Mickey's Philharmagic! Haunted Mansion was either 50 or 40 minutes, Jungle Cruise was 30 minutes, and Winnie the Pooh was 50 minutes. This was 9:30pm with a 10pm (at least according to MDE) closing.
Wow.

 

[Happy_2_B]

OOP's my bad; that's what happens when one is posting while trying to work. LOL. It was the first week of December just after the Thanksgiving crowds left as according to both of the popular crowd calendars.

This is when we get there- this year is a tad later with a Dec 4th start- couldn't make it happen the week before due to work stuff. We have found the crowds to be pretty low the week after Thanksgiving- will be interesting to see what a week later looks like. The kid's football stuff is going on, but doubt that will affect us at AKL CL. Ultimately, crowd levels don't matter to us. We do early EMH and RD on touring days- with two rope drop mornings at the MK, and one at the other parks. Then an additional afternoon into evening at MK, EP and AK (dinner there at park closing). The only park we allot one day for is DHS- just not enough going on there to warrant more than a day. On early EMH days, we finish by 11 AM or so- leave for 4-5 hours to chill out, then hop to the park that had EMH the day before to enjoy evening entertainment and the ambiance. These days it is just DW and I, so jostling at RD for position isn't an issue. Back in the old days before the CM escorts started, I used to take both kids under my arms (when they were little) and make the dash- at least that's not part of the plan anymore- LOL! Rather than worry about the crowds- we avoid them .

 

[Princess Mulan]

Good news. Weekend is over and crowds are down significantly (as expected). Animal Kingdom just closed. Here's the chart:

Other than the uhhhh 100-minute posted wait at Primeval Whirl, it looks pretty good. Can't beat walk-on Everest in the dark.

Thanks, Josh, for your detailed explanations of crowd calendars, along with your unvarnished reviews and hilarious observations. We've followed your recommendations ever since we discovered your site, and you've never steered us wrong.

 

[SparklePixie]

For whatever it's worth, this is how easywdw operates: http://disboards.com/threads/who-has-the-best-crowd-calendar.2965605/page-3#post-45681529. There isn't necessarily a lot of emphasis on the past, though it's certainly taken into account. I don't do anything unless there's verifiable, concrete information. That's why you won't find any information on crowds further than about 6.5 months out. There's no projections that far out and if I were to tell you about August 2016 or something ten months in advance, I'd just be guessing based on how August 2014 and 2015 were. As others have stated, guessing isn't going to take us very far. It's also why you won't find any recommendations around Christmas. Disney's projections for about two weeks there are the exact same (high) numbers every day. Again, I could guess or base it on last year, but I don't think that would ultimately be helpful.

One problem that is occasionally run into is that the parks are legitimately busier than expected and you do see a lot of problems with staffing when that happens, which in turn compounds "crowdedness." Since we're talking about Animal Kingdom on November 14th, that did legitimately happen as the park hours were extended by an hour on the day of. Attendance wise, the parks are not significantly busier this year than last year or the year before. The increases are in the very low single digits, particularly at the parks not named Magic Kingdom. My guess is we'll see increased staffing and longer operating hours next year, which should help combat the feelings of "crowdedness." I could go on for a few days about data mining, reduced staffing the effects of MyMagic+, etc. I've seen a lot of people asserting that MyMagic+ is offering some kind of portal into guest behavior, but that's either not happening or whoever runs Touring Plans is in charge of interpreting it, because we really aren't seeing an increase in the accuracy of the projections. They're actually trending in the opposite direction. Hopefully that instills confidence.

Just couldn't help yourself, could you?

 

[lugnut33]

Yeah, there's a followup: http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/10/29/whats-up-with-wait-times-at-disneys-hollywood-studios/

"Is Disney Intentionally Lowering Ride Capacity? No. I said this on a WDWToday podcast and in blog comments here. I don’t think it’s true now. You can explain virtually all of the wait time increases across all four parks by looking at attraction closures, more efficient FastPass+ lines, and mechanical issues. Disney management may be a lot of things, but they’re not Enron. I regret saying it, and I apologize."

Amusingly, Universal does actually do this during early entry.

Wouldn't lower staffing at opening and only operating one queue of an attraction (e.g. Tower of Terror) be considered intentionally lowering ride capacity to keep costs down?

 

[tomatecerise]

We are there and i said to My Sister i wish to have a fastpass to Go to the restrooms

 

[siskaren]

Just couldn't help yourself, could you?

Yeah, he just couldn't help explaining how he comes up with his crowd level numbers.

 

[SparklePixie]

Yeah, he just couldn't help explaining how he comes up with his crowd level numbers.

I was referring to the bolded, the snarky uncalled for dig at TP.