Here now...crowd calendars WAY off!

[mom2rtk]

We are also here and following Easywdw's crowd calendars and have found them to be pretty accurate. There are A LOT of people here and walking around is crowded, but using Ridemax we have literally walked onto just about everything. On Friday in the MK we did 13 attractions, ate lunch, and played an hour of Sorcerer's of the Magic Kingdom and left at about 2:30. I just don't think we could have done that if it had been busier. Yesterday at Animal Kingdom it did seem more crowded than the 6 that was predicted, but again we never waited in line. All of the shows had room to spare. There may be a lot of people here, but I still don't think it is as crowded as other times.

I'm guessing it was a party day in the MK. That makes a huge difference. I love party season at WDW. It makes it so much easier to find a low crowd day.

 

[cakebaker]

My wife hates crowds and would rather be at the pool. So it's more about keeping peace in the family. We arrive at RD, get lunch about 12 and head back to the resort. Do the pool from 2-5. Get dressed and come back to the park and use our FP+s. Of course during our Spring Break trips we leave at 12 and don't come back at all. But leaving at 12 and coming back about 7 works for our summer trips.

This is basically what we do as well, but return to a park around 5-6. Even though that's still a pretty crowded time, we eat dinner then start using fp+'s so the crowd level isn't as bothersome. We'll rarely do open to closing- SWW at the HS would be an exception, but we think we get more done going early, skipping the afternoons and then coming back for a late evening than if we stayed from opening to 7 or 8 at night.

 

[Isildur's Bane]

This is basically what we do as well, but return to a park around 5-6. Even though that's still a pretty crowded time, we eat dinner then start using fp+'s so the crowd level isn't as bothersome. We'll rarely do open to closing- SWW at the MK would be an exception, but we think we get more done going early, skipping the afternoons and then coming back for a late evening than if we stayed from opening to 7 or 8 at night.

I thought Star Wars was Hollywood studios?

 

[DebbieB]

Funny that Epcot was lower than predicted yesterday, considering this is the last weekend of Food & Wine.

 

[nkereina]

We were there this time last year and had the same experience. More crowded than anticipated and what the crowd calendars led us to believe. It used to be that the week before Thanksgiving was a slow time, but it's not the case anymore. This year it may be made worse by people trying to make a trip during the last year of Osborne Lights.

 

[Kristine316]

The predictors have been way off but, they will give you the excuse that they are still right technically. How they explain it is that a "5" from two years ago isn't the same as a "5" today. So if you took a trip back in 2013 and you experienced a "5" if you go back next month and experience a "5" it will be a lot busier because these numbers are based on a yearly calendar at WDW. They only are compared to each day in a year not to years past. If they didn't use this method there would probably never be a "1" or even a "2" predicted again at WDW. Because they use the same system of 1-10 and rank each day in terms of how busy it will be compared to other days in a calendar year that is why it feels like they are way off in their predictions these days.
If WDW gets busier every year a "1" today would feel more like a "3" from a few years ago and a "1" in five years will feel like a "5" from a few years ago.

I agree with those who say more people use these planning sites now. I've discussed this on here many times in the past and have been dismissed. But isn't it logical to think if every planning site tells you to go to WDW in September because it's the best time of the year in terms of crowds, that as more people use these sites and take their recommendations, these "slow" times will actually start to have dramatic increases in crowds??

Also one thing I've noticed is that the differences in wait times between low crowd days and higher crowds is not that big. I check the apps almost every day for wait times and I find even on the lower crowded days some of these lines are ridiculous.

 

[hyzdufan]

We are also here and following Easywdw's crowd calendars and have found them to be pretty accurate. There are A LOT of people here and walking around is crowded, but using Ridemax we have literally walked onto just about everything. On Friday in the MK we did 13 attractions, ate lunch, and played an hour of Sorcerer's of the Magic Kingdom and left at about 2:30. I just don't think we could have done that if it had been busier. Yesterday at Animal Kingdom it did seem more crowded than the 6 that was predicted, but again we never waited in line. All of the shows had room to spare. There may be a lot of people here, but I still don't think it is as crowded as other times.

What is Ridemax? Similar to TouringPlans?

 

[Kristine316]

Just an interesting tidbit to add to this discussion.. Just checked ride times.. Easywdw was way off today. Told everyone to head to the MK today as most recommended park, well if you look at ride wait times you will see crazy wait times at the MK today but at Easy's least recommended park Epcot ride wait times are quite reasonable... Hmmmmm.

I always go by Easywdw's recommendations but, he's not always right either. Although many on this forum swear by Josh's recommendations as if they are gospel.

Maybe he is becoming so popular that as more people follow his recommendations, his predictions actually become less reliable. A victim of his own massive success.. Because truthfully he has a very good reputation and like I said I have always followed his recommendations and had decent results.

 

[jaysmom4285]

I just compared the current wait times on the MDE app with what touring plans predicted for 4 PM wait times in MK, and touring plans was just about spot on. 7DMT and A&E had wait times that were a little higher than predicted, but just about all the others were within 5-10 minutes of what touring plans predicted. They are quite clear about what to expect for wait times, so I'm not sure why anyone would be surprised by the wait times if they actually looked at what was predicted. I'm not saying that MK doesn't seem crowded to people or that it isn't more crowded than last year at this time, but these wait times were clearly taken into account.

 

[DVCcurious]

Out of curiosity, why don't you return to the parks in the evenings during Spring Break trips? And what do you do from noon until you go to bed? Do you never go to fireworks during Spring Break?

We have a 5 and 3 year old. In order to be on the 6:15 bus to MK we have to get up at 5:00AM. They need to be in bed by 6:30pm the night before to get up at 5AM being reasonably rested. So we do dinner at 4:30.

 

[GPC0321]

I agree with those who say more people use these planning sites now. I've discussed this on here many times in the past and have been dismissed. But isn't it logical to think if every planning site tells you to go to WDW in September because it's the best time of the year in terms of crowds, that as more people use these sites and take their recommendations, these "slow" times will actually start to have dramatic increases in crowds??

Bingo. In an effort to avoid crowded times or crowded parks, people are basically creating new crowded times and parks. People in this day and age Google everything. Everyone now has access to what maybe used to be "insider" knowledge that only those who were frequent visitors and veterans knew.

 

[GPC0321]

We have a 5 and 3 year old. In order to be on the 6:15 bus to MK we have to get up at 5:00AM. They need to be in bed by 6:30pm the night before to get up at 5AM being reasonably rested. So we do dinner at 4:30.

Oh, I see.

 

[maxiesmom]

Went to HS Friday night crowd level 6 (touring plans) and easywdw either recommended or most recommended was a 9. Went to AK yesterday most recommended / 3 ended up as an 8.

Easy also states that it is more important to arrive early than it is to pick the right day.

 

[anniemae]

Just an interesting tidbit to add to this discussion.. Just checked ride times.. Easywdw was way off today. Told everyone to head to the MK today as most recommended park, well if you look at ride wait times you will see crazy wait times at the MK today but at Easy's least recommended park Epcot ride wait times are quite reasonable... Hmmmmm.

I always go by Easywdw's recommendations but, he's not always right either. Although many on this forum swear by Josh's recommendations as if they are gospel.

Maybe he is becoming so popular that as more people follow his recommendations, his predictions actually become less reliable. A victim of his own massive success.. Because truthfully he has a very good reputation and like I said I have always followed his recommendations and had decent results.

This is how I feel. It is second nature to google everything and as a result everyone comes upon the same crowd prediction sites. I found everyone using the same plan and as a result the most recommended park was the most crowded.

 

[cakebaker]

I thought Star Wars was Hollywood studios?

LOL- Thanks for catching that- SWW most definitely WAS at HS. I corrected it.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

Went to HS Friday night crowd level 6 (touring plans) and easywdw either recommended or most recommended was a 9. Went to AK yesterday most recommended / 3 ended up as an 8.

Oh boy. Okay, so Saturday November 14th during Mickey's Christmas Party season and the last Saturday of Epcot Food and Wine. We've probably got five options:

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Epcot
3. Hollywood Studios
4. Magic Kingdom
5. Stay Home

Working backwards, not going is probably your best bet to avoid the crowds, but then you'd be sitting on the couch watching Washington football lose with me which isn't as much fun as it sounds.

Magic Kingdom on a Saturday with extended hours and both nighttime spectaculars? Virtually guaranteed to be the busiest day of the week there with far and away the highest wait times. I have a post from September that discusses how Mickey's Parties affect crowds along with what to expect from the lowest crowds of the year here: http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...what-the-lowest-crowds-of-the-year-look-like/ and then exactly one month ago with http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...at-walt-disney-world-october-2015-wait-times/ titled "The Reality of Above Average Crowds at Walt Disney World - October Wait Times." That post directly compares a Party day with a Saturday. Anyway, the point here is that Magic Kingdom on Saturday would be the busiest day of the week to go. I don't think anybody would disagree with that. Reading that post should have helped prepare you for your trip given similar crowd levels, but I understand looking at wait times in a chart isn't the same as looking up at Buzz Lightyear and seeing a 75-minute wait in person.

Hollywood Studios with a morning Extra Magic Hour is our next choice. If you want to wake up an hour earlier and visit a park that's going to have a similar number of people at rope drop all headed to Toy Story Mania and then longer waits all day after that then it would be a viable choice. Personally I'd rather visit another day after sleeping an extra hour. But you could certainly do it with a somewhat similar experience as any other day.

Epcot on the last Saturday of Food and Wine. I see that the exact same poster is trying to make the exact same point in this thread as they did last month in this thread: http://disboards.com/threads/crowd-level-calculations.3457372/#post-54632867. You're welcome to check that thread out for a full rebuttal, but this is what Epcot looks like on a Saturday during Food and Wine:

Not great Bob.

So Epcot and Magic Kingdom are out. Hollywood Studios is sort of an ehhhhhhhhhh. So that leaves us with Animal Kingdom. Here's what wait times looked like over the course of the day:

Maximum FastPass+ distribution is going to push up those afternoon wait times, but if you were to follow the website's recommended touring strategy, you should have been able to have a fine day. DINOSAUR doesn't hit anything above 10 minutes for a full 2.5 hours in the morning. You've got a solid hour of basically walk-on status at Everest and then another 90 minutes of 5 or less minutes at the end of the day. I can't do anything about 40-50 minute peak waits. That's the reality of above average crowds. Kali is on the short side due to the cooler weather. Safaris is rougher than we'd like in the afternoon, but that's why it's the first stop on the touring plan or the advice is to otherwise wait until the very end of the day. I'm wondering if they're not accounting for the earlier close due to darkness in the number of FP+ distributed over the course of the day. Primeval Whirl is Primeval Whirl. You've got 2+ hours of being able to walk on in the morning and then again in the evening, though I would guess they were only running half capacity in the evening resulting in higher posted waits.

I will concede that a "7" is probably more accurate for that Saturday rather than a "6." Cooler weather and an extension of Food/Wine later than previous years. Looking over expected wait times based on the cheat sheet:

Expected waits here are in line with reality. We're expecting 40 and 50 minutes at DINOSAUR which is what we get. Expecting 50 minutes at Everest that's what we've got. Safaris expected is "just" 70 when it gets up to 90 and then 120, but there isn't necessarily a huge disparity there - you're not going to want to ride standby either way.

So I guess my point(s) here is (are) twofold.

Where do you think you should have gone on a Saturday in mid-November? What's the better alternative? Certainly not Epcot or Magic Kingdom. You might be able to make an argument that Studios was just as bad as it would be any other day, but I'm not sure that's convincing enough to go.

The other point is that "It was more crowded than I was expecting" isn't necessarily synonymous with "crowd calendars WAY off." Or more accurately probably, "easywdw was way off."

But the reality is that the parks are busier than either of us would like them to be. As I've said before, adjust your expectations accordingly.

 

[dekraut]

I posted a question the other day about the numbers... TP has crowd level 10 on Christmas Day and also a crowd level 10 on MLK day 2016. I don't think I can trust a service that tells me that the parks will be equally busy on Christmas and MLK day. I just don't think I believe it.

 

[karly05]

Saturday is almost always going to be the worst day of the week to go to MK.

I wish I could "like" this post about ten times. Agree 100 %. I refuse to set foot in MK on a Saturday regardless of overall crowd predictions.

 

[KirbyLouWho]

Not great Bob

Haha! My favorite Mad Men reference!

 

[BridgetR3]

We have a 5 and 3 year old. In order to be on the 6:15 bus to MK we have to get up at 5:00AM. They need to be in bed by 6:30pm the night before to get up at 5AM being reasonably rested. So we do dinner at 4:30.

Why would you want to be on the bus at 6:15?? That seems awfully early.