Here Comes Day Guest MagicBands

[2Tiggies]

Here's the link:

http://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investors/financial-information/sec-filings

Thank you

 

[estherhead]

I for one am super grateful they are bringing offsiters online. Because the FP+ kiosk lines are for me the only huge negative to my Disney trip this time they are insane and omnipresent. Offsiters having access to MDE will greatly improve things. Trust me, we were some of the unfortunates in MK yesterday when it seemed to be ABOVE capacity. We did Tomorrowland from 4-6 with our FP+ for Buzz & SM and it was sheer chaos. If a child had tripped and gone down they might never have been found again. And Fantasyland at 1:00 was the same thing. Philharmagic was a walkon IF, and this is a big if, you could find the standby line without losing a child.

We had all decided that until the offsiters were brought online we wouldn't be back. So I'm glad it's sooner not later.

 

[kmb584]

FWIW, from a past math thread another poster (Nabas, I think?) analyzed Disney's 10K Filing where they provide the Domestic Per Room Guest Spending. It shows an on-site family spends at least $257/day more than an off-site family.

I'm not one to argue analytical data but know personally that it doesn't hold true for all. We're a family of AP holders, visit WDW twice per year, and stay on-site 50% of the time. Those on-site stays are cash vacations for either a 2 bedroom villa or a grand villa, so every October I spend (on the low side) just above $12,000 for lodging alone. If we decide on the GV route that number is upwards of $15,000. It doesn't account for our meals (at least 1 TS per day), souvenirs, etc. Disney is getting plenty of this AP holders money regardless of whether we're on-site or not.

 

[OtherScott]

I'd actually love to get a link to that. Very interesting.

It must surely include room cost? Or if not, perhaps food? Offsite guests are more likely to bring their own food or at least their own snacks/waters than onsite guests. Also, just because onsite guests are redeeming dining credits does not mean they are not paying. The DDP is by no means a cheap add-on and adding free dining means paying rack rate for a room when the price would ordinarily be lower so effectively they are just shifting where the food bill appears on the invoice to fall under 'room' rather than 'dining' But money spent is money spent, regardless of where you post it.

I also suspect that offsite guests who typically have their own transport and easier access to malls and retail outlets are doing much of their souvenir shopping offsite as well for less.

None of the folk I personally know who stay offsite spend much in the parks compared to us (and we are fairly low spenders in terms of souvenirs -except my DD who keeps Disney in business!)

Each night a room is booked at Disney, it results in $257 being spent outside of the park by the guests of that room. This includes DVC rentals. That's over $2.5 billion for 2013 [EDIT: FY 2012] based on an 81% occupancy rate.

There is no distinction between onsite/offsite when calculating park revenue.

You could infer that resort guests may spend more for food inside the parks given limited ability to store food purchased away from Disney.

You could assume that some variation of zero-sum game exists so that every dollar spent outside the parks is one that can't/won't be spent inside. A guest spending an average of $157 for "the average daily hotel room (or condo) rate as well as guest spending on food, beverage and merchandise at the (outside) hotels" may tend to spend more inside the park.

 

[Vidia2]

I can't believe we're still having the debate over who spends the most money. Lol!!!

Disney looks at overall profit from their guests. If they weren't making more overall profit from onsite guests, they would stop building resorts and close down the existing ones. Resorts don't exist as a convenience to guests. They are a tool by which Disney makes more profit.

We're all just a number at this point and everyone thinks they spend the most money. Disney has the actual numbers and they're making decisions accordingly.

I don't have to read financial statements to have proof. I can see the proof in Disney's actions even as they try to PR everyone to death about fairness. Is there anyone left who truly believes that the new Disney cares about fairness? I guess it depends on your definition of fairness.

And by the way, what if they're actually giving better FP+ choices to Deluxe resort guests already, or to guests that just spend more? Rewards do not have to be announced or even obvious to be extremely effective. What are the magic bands for if not to track spending/behavior to plan an effective reward system appropriate for each guest's profit margin? With the old system, everyone knew what fastpasses were available. With the new system, some may have access to better fastpasses, especially if they're giving Disney $25,000 for their vacation instead of $1,500. Is this obvious to anyone else?

 

[clsteve]

I'm not one to argue analytical data but know personally that it doesn't hold true for all. We're a family of AP holders, visit WDW twice per year, and stay on-site 50% of the time. Those on-site stays are cash vacations for either a 2 bedroom villa or a grand villa, so every October I spend (on the low side) just above $12,000 for lodging alone. If we decide on the GV route that number is upwards of $15,000. It doesn't account for our meals (at least 1 TS per day), souvenirs, etc. Disney is getting plenty of this AP holders money regardless of whether we're on-site or not.

Yep, that's always been concerning when looking at the whole of this. Anytime you create "classes" of guests, there are significant exceptions to the rule that aren't always thought out concisely at the 50,000 foot level. I would definitely be letting them know where they're missing the boat in this area.....

 

[OtherScott]

I can't believe we're still having the debate over who spends the most money. Lol!!!

Disney looks at overall profit from their guests. If they weren't making more overall profit from onsite guests, they would stop building resorts and close down the existing ones. Resorts don't exist as a convenience to guests. They are a tool by which Disney makes more profit.

We're all just a number at this point and everyone thinks they spend the most money. Disney has the actual numbers and they're making decisions accordingly.

I don't have to read financial statements to have proof. I can see the proof in Disney's actions even as they try to PR everyone to death about fairness. Is there anyone left who truly believes that the new Disney cares about fairness? I guess it depends on your definition of fairness.

And by the way, what if they're actually giving better FP+ choices to Deluxe resort guests already, or to guests that just spend more? Rewards do not have to be announced or even obvious to be extremely effective. What are the magic bands for if not to track spending/behavior to plan an effective reward system appropriate for each guest's profit margin? With the old system, everyone knew what fastpasses were available. With the new system, some may have access to better fastpasses, especially if they're giving Disney $25,000 for their vacation instead of $1,500. Is this obvious to anyone else?

I'd stop short of saying it's obvious that they're doing it, but agree that it is very plausible that it is one consideration moving forward.

I've thought all along that the goal was to get MBs on the wrists of every guest to get the data you're talking about, so that you can intelligently target your customers.

I thought the logical point of distinction Disney would employ for pre-booking would be between MB wearers vs non-wearers, not onsite vs offsite. "Want to pre-book and stay offsite? Buy a Magic Band and link it to a CC."

That would represent an 8-12% cost (increased gate fee) to offsiters that's not as easy to hide as increases to room rates. Maybe that's coming.

 

[morethananyonex]

That's wrong. Its totally logical that they would be 3rd tier. Why? Because they spend way less per day....both in tickets and in soft spending like souvenirs and meals.

PP is completely right. It's illogical to think Disney would treat offsite guests badly by not giving them the ability to prebook. That doesn't mean offsite guests bring Disney in more money than onsite guests.

They may not be as valuable as a whole to Disney as onsite guests, but that doesn't mean it's logical to think Disney would treat them badly as part of their long term plans. Disney couldn't thrive at the levels it does with onsite guests alone. They need those offsite guests, and offsite guests are theoretically the ones who Disney benefits most from when they prebook. Onsite guests as a whole are already pretty locked into Disney, and didn't necessarily need FP+ like offsite guests do from Disney's perspective.

Who is more likely to buy tickets at the gate vs in advance? Who is less likely to visit Disney every day of their time in Orlando? Who is more likely to make a spur of the moment decision to visit another Orlando attraction? Who has an easier time getting anywhere else in Orlando? Who has an easier time finding cheaper eating and shopping? The answer to all of that is offsite guests. Without giving them the pre booking ability, Disney is basically throwing their hands up and giving up on capturing the extra revenue possible from offsite guests. Giving them the ability to book in advance allows Disney to attempt to keep them on Disney property longer, getting more of their money.

What's illogical, IMO, is thinking Disney wasn't going to go down this road. Anyone thinking past their own "I want this to be a perk for me!" thoughts could easily see it coming.

 

[mom2rtk]

What's illogical, IMO, is thinking Disney wasn't going to go down this road. Anyone thinking past their own "I want this to be a perk for me!" thoughts could easily see it coming.

Agreed. Disney wants as much of the pie as possible, but they NEED a certain percentage of guests to remain offsite. That way they don't have to build for peak season only to have rooms sitting empty the rest of the year. Better to have someone else take the hit for that.

And I'm sure that with only same-day booking available, a certain number of early day FP slots went unused. With advance booking, it's far more likely those spots will be taken by someone.

 

[OtherScott]

Agreed. Disney wants as much of the pie as possible, but they NEED a certain percentage of guests to remain offsite. That way they don't have to build for peak season only to have rooms sitting empty the rest of the year. Better to have someone else take the hit for that.

And I'm sure that with only same-day booking available, a certain number of early day FP slots went unused. With advance booking, it's far more likely those spots will be taken by someone.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

Who is more likely to buy tickets at the gate vs in advance? Who is less likely to visit Disney every day of their time in Orlando? Who is more likely to make a spur of the moment decision to visit another Orlando attraction? Who has an easier time getting anywhere else in Orlando? Who has an easier time finding cheaper eating and shopping? The answer to all of that is offsite guests. Without giving them the pre booking ability, Disney is basically throwing their hands up and giving up on capturing the extra revenue possible from offsite guests. Giving them the ability to book in advance allows Disney to attempt to keep them on Disney property longer, getting more of their money.

This what I have been saying all along. Too me it seems pre-booking FP+ was geared more to getting off-site guest to lock in before leaving home and see all of those cool ads in their resort/hotel lobby for those parks down the road. If Disney can get these families to buy tickets before ever stepping a foot in Orlando, my guess would be that those families will be going to Disney. They have too much invested in tickets no to go. It almost seems to me to be Disney's answer to all the new stuff going in down the road. Like they are admitting they know they will lose those guest if they aren't locked in before they arrive in town. They aren't going to get into a race at building rides. They are just going to try to get those off-site guest to lock in to Disney before leaving home and "prevent" them from going anywhere else.

 

[FlipHipster]

Agreed. Disney wants as much of the pie as possible, but they NEED a certain percentage of guests to remain offsite. That way they don't have to build for peak season only to have rooms sitting empty the rest of the year. Better to have someone else take the hit for that.

And I'm sure that with only same-day booking available, a certain number of early day FP slots went unused. With advance booking, it's far more likely those spots will be taken by someone.

And bye-bye early morning RD strategy. Depending on how Disney allocates those early morning slots and how many people jump on them, this could mean long FP lines from park open until close and I think we can all see what happens to SB in that scenario.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

And bye-bye early morning RD strategy. Depending on how Disney allocates those early morning slots and how many people jump on them, this could mean long FP lines from park open until close and I think we can all see what happens to SB in that scenario.

This is a big worry for our family. We travel in June on 8 or 9 crowd days. We were able to ride over 20 rides in MK last June but we don't expect to get anywhere close to that this coming summer.

 

[KatieCharlotte]

And by the way, what if they're actually giving better FP+ choices to Deluxe resort guests already, or to guests that just spend more? Rewards do not have to be announced or even obvious to be extremely effective. What are the magic bands for if not to track spending/behavior to plan an effective reward system appropriate for each guest's profit margin? With the old system, everyone knew what fastpasses were available. With the new system, some may have access to better fastpasses, especially if they're giving Disney $25,000 for their vacation instead of $1,500. Is this obvious to anyone else?

It's certainly possible. We've heard very different reports about what FP+ choices are available day-of and the day before, and no one knows if that's the accidental result of poor technology or the intentional result of more sophisticated technology. The patent posted here awhile ago certainly suggested that Disney has thought about the possibility, at least.

When I booked my FP+ and the exact time I wanted for Peter Pan popped up as my "best match," 12:45 p.m., I wondered for a moment if it had something to do with being an onsite guest in a moderate (and first-time MDE user), but then I thought that Disney probably didn't want to reward me for staying one night, buying a one-day MK ticket, and booking zero ADRs.

 

[mom2rtk]

And bye-bye early morning RD strategy. Depending on how Disney allocates those early morning slots and how many people jump on them, this could mean long FP lines from park open until close and I think we can all see what happens to SB in that scenario.

I agree it's likely this change is likely to make early mornings even less of an advantage.

 

[vicb]

I am staying off site, and have linked my tickets from UT on MDE app. My 30 day mark comes in nine days. So, do I just start checking the app at that time to schedule my FP+? Also, does anyone have any information about how to purchase Magic Bands? I understand that our tickets can be used instead, but am interested in how much the bands cost and how to get them. Sorry if this has already been asked… Thank you so much everyone for your help!

Do we have any set idea on how much the magic bands are going to cost? My tween thinks she is REALLY going to need one! lol Also, what is the typical time for shipping on these? By the time that we are allowed to order, it will be 3.5 weeks till our trip. Is that enough time?

I'm guessing nobody is responding to these questions because nobody really knows how this will work yet or how much the cost will be.... I too am curious.

 

[clsteve]

I'm guessing nobody is responding to these questions because nobody really knows how this will work yet or how much the cost will be.... I too am curious.

I've seen $12-$15 posted. But, with the scanning issues, it's not surprising they don't want to put more MB's out there for off-siter's yet.

Long term, it all seems to be designed for (almost) everyone on MB's and they'd love to have off-site CC's attached to them for the added spend uplift. Plus, the long range scan only provides so much benefit to them if only half of the guests are wearing them.

 

[Ariel on Land]

And bye-bye early morning RD strategy. Depending on how Disney allocates those early morning slots and how many people jump on them, this could mean long FP lines from park open until close and I think we can all see what happens to SB in that scenario.

This worries me. If all I can easily accomplish is 3 FPs plus 1, maybe 2 shortish lines after hitting rope drop, THAT is going to be what makes me not want to return.

 

[jenne]

Please tell me that soon park-hopping won't be punished and getting fastpasses for more than 1 park a day will soon be possible!

 

[HookdonWDW]

We visit once a year offsite, usually tied to a major holiday when DVC points are very expensive. We do so only because we purchase an AP and we connect it to a cruise. We could easily choose to cruise from another port other than Tampa or Port Canaveral and not do the additional trip to WDW.

Your example is exactly why Disney is probably choosing this method of marketing Magic Band. Basically, since your APs pay for themselves during your onsite stays (estimating an average of 10+ days on site/year and the fact that your AP is probably a discounted DVC AP), you book an extra pre-cruise trip to WDW because it's pretty much "free". Disney makes nothing from your offsite stay or tickets. All that's left is the $$$ you spend on dining and souveniers. Personally, I know that when we combine a cruise w/ a park visit, we spend a lot less at the parks because I'd rather buy stuff on the cruise, and with all the rich food on the cruise, I'm not really looking for big meals at the parks.

So, when you stay onsite, your AP entitles you to the same perks as others who stay onsite, quite similar to how your DVC membership entitles you to certain perks only with an onsite points stay...