Help Me to Trust My Touring Plan!

[Lisann]

I subscribe to a popular touring plan website, and the plan that it kicked out for me is so counter-intuitive! It's so difficult to trust, but I know these guys have been doing this for years, so I'm trying my hardest to wrap my mind around it all!

Any tips for me? Tell me it's going to work? It almost seems to good to be true!!

 

[FCDub]

Why not post it here so people can comment on it?

 

[fivikse]

I just tried a couple for my dates also and they seem very weird! I'm going to keep playing before I post mine, but they definitely seem counter-intuitive.

 

[Lisann]

Why not post it here so people can comment on it?

Because the guidelines state not to post it. And I want to adhere by the rules.

It's a fine plan, it's just so different than what I am used to, so it's really hard to trust it!

 

[Ladyandthepuppies]

The touring plans use a variety of data to create a model that predicts wait times. The more reliable data that can be input into the model, the better the predictions.

Unfortunately, there really hasn’t been a year like this before, so the data might be lacking or limited and the predictions may not be as reliable as in the past. For example, is there going to be a lot of pent-up demand from the past year causing extra crowds? We have nothing to compare 2020 to. Are people still waiting and delaying a 2021 trip to 2022 in the hopes that things will be “fully back to normal” by then? There’s no way to tell. And how does the 50th anniversary come into play? We can look at data from other milestone anniversaries but 50 seems likely to be a bigger milestone than 45 or 40.

I am a huge geek and I love the science behind the touring plans. But even as a fan, I personally would not put a huge amount of stock in touring plans for the next year or two since they just don’t have the data to cover all of the new variables from COVID. Maybe wait until the day before your trip and generate the touring plan again, at least that way you’ll have more recent data included in the prediction model.

 

[yaya74]

The touring plans use a variety of data to create a model that predicts wait times. The more reliable data that can be input into the model, the better the predictions.

Unfortunately, there really hasn’t been a year like this before, so the data might be lacking or limited and the predictions may not be as reliable as in the past. For example, is there going to be a lot of pent-up demand from the past year causing extra crowds? We have nothing to compare 2020 to. Are people still waiting and delaying a 2021 trip to 2022 in the hopes that things will be “fully back to normal” by then? There’s no way to tell. And how does the 50th anniversary come into play? We can look at data from other milestone anniversaries but 50 seems likely to be a bigger milestone than 45 or 40.

I am a huge geek and I love the science behind the touring plans. But even as a fan, I personally would not put a huge amount of stock in touring plans for the next year or two since they just don’t have the data to cover all of the new variables from COVID. Maybe wait until the day before your trip and generate the touring plan again, at least that way you’ll have more recent data included in the prediction model.

Agree with whatever it states above.
The plan is not that accurate with the current situations.
I would just use LINE and go with the flow.

 

[Lisann]

The touring plans use a variety of data to create a model that predicts wait times. The more reliable data that can be input into the model, the better the predictions.

Unfortunately, there really hasn’t been a year like this before, so the data might be lacking or limited and the predictions may not be as reliable as in the past. For example, is there going to be a lot of pent-up demand from the past year causing extra crowds? We have nothing to compare 2020 to. Are people still waiting and delaying a 2021 trip to 2022 in the hopes that things will be “fully back to normal” by then? There’s no way to tell. And how does the 50th anniversary come into play? We can look at data from other milestone anniversaries but 50 seems likely to be a bigger milestone than 45 or 40.

I am a huge geek and I love the science behind the touring plans. But even as a fan, I personally would not put a huge amount of stock in touring plans for the next year or two since they just don’t have the data to cover all of the new variables from COVID. Maybe wait until the day before your trip and generate the touring plan again, at least that way you’ll have more recent data included in the prediction model.

Thank you for your well-thought-out response. I see it from a different angle now.

I think I will keep my plan, with just a couple of adjustments on the fly, and we will see what happens. We will be there at park opening (8:00am, MK), so we should be good to go.

Thanks for your help!

 

[preschoolmom]

I'm struggling with this exact same issue. The plans feel counterintuitive. I'm good with HS and AK - but MK just feels off. But I trust the computers - but still? Yeah, just commiserating!

 

[Lisann]

I'm struggling with this exact same issue. The plans feel counterintuitive. I'm good with HS and AK - but MK just feels off. But I trust the computers - but still? Yeah, just commiserating!

I know! I'm traveling different this time (with a young child), so my plans are way wonky than usual! haha! I have to factor in a lot of Fantasyland this time.

 

[Ladyandthepuppies]

There was a really good Dis Unplugged podcast back in 2018 where Len Testa from touringplans.com explained some of the science that goes into their model. I found it to be super interesting, but then again I’m a huge nerd haha. Here’s the link if you wanted to check it out: http://disunplugged.com/2018/03/06/dis-unplugged-podcast-030618-disney-world-show/

It’s the “bonus” part 2 of the episode.

 

[Lisann]

There was a really good Dis Unplugged podcast back in 2018 where Len Testa from touringplans.com explained some of the science that goes into their model. I found it to be super interesting, but then again I’m a huge nerd haha. Here’s the link if you wanted to check it out: http://disunplugged.com/2018/03/06/dis-unplugged-podcast-030618-disney-world-show/

It’s the “bonus” part 2 of the episode.

I was looking for that! I knew I saw it somewhere a couple of years ago. Thank you.

 

[JenBush]

I agree with the others, use it as a guide, but be flexible. Without fast passes it is much easier to be flexible and change your plans as you go.

 

[Lisann]

I agree with the others, use it as a guide, but be flexible. Without fast passes it is much easier to be flexible and change your plans as you go.

That's true, I hadn't thought of the FastPass angle.