What are your kids' ages and M/F ratios? Favorite parks? Do you enjoy Epcot festivals and scavenger hunts? Are you rope droppers or fireworks/late night folks? How important is transportation? On-site dining? Do you plan to drive and park, or Uber into the resort and just use WDW transportation?
I know you love CC, and I don't blame you. It's awesome, and you need to own there for any holiday fall/winter. If you go there, you'll need a two-bedroom, which is not a bad thing, because I think that's where you'll end up eventually, anyway, as your kids age and they want to bring a friend or cousin or grandparents, etc.
I would rather own where you KNOW you love rather than a boatload of SS points that you need to fight for a piecemeal reservation or being "stuck" there, if SS isn't your jam. I think the dues at SS could be an issue, so WL hotel side diluting the maintenance is a nice perk in CC's favor.
If you can't do CC, I wouldn't necessarily do Poly. Yes, you'll make due with a studio and should have access to the tower, but that
point chart is going to be crazy high for a one or two-bedroom there. So, whatever Poly points you buy to squeeze into a studio, because Poly costs more than CC for a buy-in, you'll be short on points for the tower larger room categories and still not have home booking advantage at your favorite -- CC.
I think an argument can be made for Riviera direct. You are a party of five. If you decide to do APs, that $300-$400 off per person for the sorcerer pass is a good deal. You'll get that first year of bonus points, unless you sell it back for Magical Beginnings (if that's still a discount in play when you buy in,) you can definitely be comfortable in a studio there for a while, and you need to own at Riviera to nab those standard views in any category. We're no longer MK nuts, prefer Epcot and HS, and the Skyliner is just SO freaking convenient. And, yes, we have traveled in July, August, and September -- and December twice, February, and April, and so far only had it shut down on us once due to the rain. Yes, I know that's just anecdotal, but I feel like the rain/Skyliner anti-Riviera hullabaloo is also overblown anecdotal evidence, too.
So far, Riviera is the only Epcot DVC without a 2042 expiration. It's #4 is terms of cost effectiveness, and the resale prices have held steady around $125-$130. I think when it's sold out in another year or two and BC/BW are at +/-15 years, its value is going to appreciate nicely. Will we see Beach Club run-up in prices? Probably not. But I don't foresee that happening with any DVC resort in inventory right now, either. Riviera rooms are laid out great, and you have everything from Tower Studios for a couple's weekend to the Grand Villas, which are to die for. I'm not putting as much stock into the promise of direct buying getting you into the new exclusive DVC resorts since they keep pulling the rug out from under us with flips of existing resorts (yes, still salty,) but once you're in direct with blue card and all that jazz, you're grandfathered in for whatever comes in the future.
If you like CC best, I cannot imagine you liking anything about BLT. It's beyond diametrically opposite everything you like about CC. That short stroller walk to MK is only a big deal for ages 0-6, and even then, I cannot imagine spending $30-$50k for that location with the aesthetic there. I do think that's where the deal hunters go all in on SS and BLT, and intellectually I totally understand, and maybe if we had flexibility in our schedules it would be a non issue, but the value doesn't match the warm fuzzies I get at other resorts.
Honestly, if you already like WDW and DVC, a lot will change with your vacation habits. Even if you are dyed-in-the-wool studio folks for life, and there's lots of folks who are, you probably won't be doing marathon days. When you get over the FOMO and can go more often with APs and DVC accommodations covered, you really appreciate the resorts themselves more than the parks. You start planning trips around pools and dining that you like, walkability/transportation for seasonal weather extremes, resort-only stays when you can't afford park tickets or APs because you already went twice this year already. The kids meet up with friends on April vacation who are traveling the same time. Your kid has a gymnastics/Pop Warner/band/something else held in January/February to attend at WDW or in Orlando, so where do they want to go for a weekend? You decide to try Animal Kingdom and realize it's AMAZING to look out your balcony in your pajamas all morning at zebras and giraffes.
So far we have liked each resort for different reasons. Even BLT, their Grand Villa was VERY cool. That window overlooking the park was beautiful, and I really liked its layout. Would I do a week there? No. But a couple days midweek checking out the holiday party fireworks would be cool! Old Key West was soooo homey and peaceful, and the kids at the community hall and pool were just SO fun. Our kids and the ones already there just clicked and played spontaneously in the pool, did arts and crafts together. We liked it so much we debated a small resale contract there.
Beach Club, we didn't like Stormalong Bay, but our room was RIGHT next to the quiet pool, and it was magical to let the kids walk out of our slider to go in the pool.
Animal Kingdom is a foodie's paradise.
Boulder Ridge has the homiest zen lobby with those plush leather chairs by the fireplace in the train room. Get me a bottle of wine and a brick of cheese in there and never bother me again.
Don't stress TOO much. All the resorts have something cool going for them.