Help me lock in dates please.

[Funtimeswithteenagers]

My husband has to put in for next years vacation soon so we have to lock in dates now.
We want to go June. I know it’s best to go when AP pass holders are blocked out. Kids get out of school june 11th. I was wanting to go june 17-20 but looking at the blackout dates, deluxe starts blackout June 18. Would it be completely insane busy the 17/18 with deluxe pass holders going one last time? Should we wait a week? I’m worried the later we go the hotter it will be. We don’t do heat well! I’d rather it be busy than hot.
Thanks for any input.

 

[Plip]

Disney uses the blockouts to try to even out the crowds. That is, they block out the dates when they are already anticipating larger crowds. So planning to go during blockouts may not be always be a great strategy. At the very least, you know it's a day that Disney thinks is going to be busy.

Your concern about June 18 being the last day for the Deluxe Passport for two months is a valid consideration. But it's only one factor among many things that affect crowd size. And it's a Thursday, so many of the one-last-time locals won't come until after work.

Bottom line is I wouldn't avoid that week for that reason. If it were me, I'd do June 16-19 (instead of 17-20) to avoid the Saturday. I would expect Saturday to be a lot busier that the Thursday you were concerned about, even with Saturday being blocked out to some pass holders.

 

[Funtimeswithteenagers]

Ok so now I’m confused, everyone has said it’s more of a local park so it’s less crowded when The ap passholders are blocked out and June is now the new low season.

 

[SOCALMouseMommy]

It’s definitely always a good idea to try to go when APs are blocked out. If you’re flexible I might be inclined to go the following week, although check for any events or conventions that might make hotels or parks busy.

As far as the weather goes, it’s so unpredictable here. For instance, tomorrow is supposed to have a high of 71 and Sunday it’s projected to be a high of 91! In November no less. That said, June tends to have fairly mild weather... June gloom in the morning (overcast) and sunny and warmer in the afternoons. Of course it could end up unseasonably cool or unseasonably hot, but I don’t expect much difference from one week to the next in June.

 

[limace]

We often go late June and the weather is fabulous-I would definitely choose going later if that meant most pass holders were blocked.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

Ok so now I’m confused, everyone has said it’s more of a local park so it’s less crowded when The ap passholders are blocked out and June is now the new low season.

Some clarification:
Low season at DLR ≠ Low crowds -- since the demographics at DLR rely so heavily on local visitors, Disney can swing the numbers fairly quickly whenever they think the crowds are too low -- just by offering special merchandise or a limited time event or a promo ticket, they can boost those crowds in no time flat. Odd weather can change the crowd patterns. There really isn't a true "low season" any more at DLR. (We have non-peak, which = shorter hours, refurb season.) Don't depend on crowd calendars (pretty unreliable for DLR) to predict low crowd times for DLR -- the crowd patterns are too dynamic. (Most accurate crowd calendars?)
The reason that you want to go when the lower APs are blocked is because that helps you to avoid the waves of crowds that come with the local passholders -- waves of crowds that surge on weekends, surge in the late afternoon/evenings after school and work get out, waves that can shut the parking structures, etc. Day guests crowds are more constant and predictable. On the first day of Halloween Time this year, that AP surge shut the parking structures for a while. A few years ago when the lower APs were allowed back into the parks after the Christmas blockout, DL had a gate closure for capacity crowds -- that's how much the local AP crowds can affect the parks when things are bad.
June is a good month to visit if you know when to go, keeping aware of Grad Nites, AP blockouts (the week/weekend before a major blockout can be very crowded), school breaks, etc. -- the weather can be great! But don't plan your trip based solely on "low crowds" -- that's just asking for trouble around here. Plan your trip using the best research and planning you can do, making the best organized plans you can make, then get ready to relax and let the magic happen. That's how to have a great DLR trip!

 

[cruisehopeful]

Would it be completely insane busy the 17/18 with deluxe pass holders going one last time? Should we wait a week?

I would wait the week. The temperature won't be that different in one week, but the crowds will likely be very different.

 

[Plip]

Ok so now I’m confused, everyone has said it’s more of a local park so it’s less crowded when The ap passholders are blocked out and June is now the new low season.

Some Disneyland vets actually say just the opposite. They say that the best "crowd calendar" is the blockout calendar. And what they mean by that is that the days that are blocked are the most likely to have the largest crowds (which is why they're blocked).

But I don't think either extreme is right. And that's largely true because blockouts are just one factor that affects crowds.

It's like saying, "The home team usually wins in the NFL." That's a true statement. The home team wins almost 60% of the time. But if you're trying to predict the winner of a specific game, home field is just one of many things that you should consider. Often, the visiting team is actually going to be the favorite.

Blockouts are like that. Saying that the parks are always less crowded when pass holders are blocked is like saying that the home team always wins the game.

My point is simply this: Don't get too locked into blockout dates as your only indicator of crowd levels.

 

[Funtimeswithteenagers]

thank you everyone for all the advice and help. We’ve only been twice before, may 2014 and April 2016. I planned around a ghost town and took kids out of school. It turned out awful in 2014, Multiple major rides were closed down (Indy and pirates and a few others!) which made it so crowded. The hours were short too. It was really not fun. 2016 my 2 younger kids refused to ride anything so my husband and I had to switch out with the older kid to ride rides. We were apart most of the day. Now that they are all older I’m really hoping for a fun family vacation. I’m trying not to over plan or obsess but it’s really hard not to. A trip like this is not something we can do every year so I’m trying to get it right.

 

[SOCALMouseMommy]

thank you everyone for all the advice and help. We’ve only been twice before, may 2014 and April 2016. I planned around a ghost town and took kids out of school. It turned out awful in 2014, Multiple major rides were closed down (Indy and pirates and a few others!) which made it so crowded. The hours were short too. It was really not fun. 2016 my 2 younger kids refused to ride anything so my husband and I had to switch out with the older kid to ride rides. We were apart most of the day. Now that they are all older I’m really hoping for a fun family vacation. I’m trying not to over plan or obsess but it’s really hard not to. A trip like this is not something we can do every year so I’m trying to get it right.

End of June is great because you will have longer hours, daily nighttime entertainment and (likely) fewer ride closures and it will be fully staffed. So even if it’s crowded it will feel better. Hard to go wrong in summer and early June has a good chance of nice weather and not too hot.

 

[Lumpy1106]

I would wait a week. The weather in So Cal changes very little. Sure, we have heat waves but it's a dry-ish heat - not the oppressive humidity that the locales east of the Mississippi see. Planning around the AP blackout calendar works for us.