Hawaii tourism troubles - will they touch DL and WDW?

Donut23

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I posted the following article from USA Today/Travel in the DVC. The loss of guests from Japan. Will this be a problem for DVC in Hawaii?

There were interesting comments about the affects on DL and WDW visitors. We have all seen the uptick in Japanese guests....will they still be able to visit?

What do you think? Will it even affect our parks in the US?


Hawaii tourism tourism promoters are bracing for a far bigger impact on the state's key industry than the millions of dollars in damage from last week's tsunami: a significant drop in the $2 billion that Japanese visitors were projected to spend there this year, along with short-term, unfounded fears of windblown radiation from Japan's quake-crippled nuclear power plants.

Hula dancer Kanoe Miller, center has been performing at the Halekulani Hotel in Waikiki for more than three decades. Hawaii is facing an economic hit as Japanese tourists cancel trips to the state.

Gov. Neil Abercrombie declared the islands "back in business" Tuesday following a tour of damaged harbors, roads and shoreline buildings on Maui and the Big Island of Hawaii. Some businesses and two Big Island hotels — the Four Seasons Hualalai and Kona Village Resort — remain closed after the tsunami, but the Pride of America cruise ship returns next week after canceling this week's stop in the Big Island town of Kailua-Kona. Though divers discovered some reef damage to Kealakekua Bay on the Big Island, the impact was not as bad as initially feared, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported.

But the state has already logged several thousand tour and hotel cancellations from the Japanese market. Despite a decline in recent years, the Japanese make up nearly 18% of Hawaii's 7.1 million annual tourists and represent the state's single largest source of visitors outside the USA.

Although the Japanese spend an average of just under six days per visit in Hawaii compared to 9.5 days for U.S. West Coast tourists and 10.5 days for East Coast visitors, their daily expenditures are much higher: an average of $274 per person, a day versus $146 for visitors from the West Coast and $177 a day from East Coast visitors, says David Uchiyama of the Hawaii Tourism Authority.

"This is just the first shock wave," says Uchiyama, who notes that a "cultural sense of obligation and responsibility" to fellow countrymen traditionally keeps Japanese from traveling during times of crisis.

Golden Week, a strong holiday time in Japan because it encompasses four national holidays during late April and early May, typically boosts Japanese arrivals in Hawaii by as much as 25%.

"The economic consequences will be severe for us," Abercrombie says. "It's going to be terrible. It's something we have to come to grips with."



I'm guessing the Disney addicts (yes, they have to have the too!!) in Japan may try to feed their Disney Fix at Toyko Disneyland for now. It will be far less expensive and they will support their own economy.......at the expense of DL and WDW. I agree with those on the DVC thread......this is a long-term impact.

My prayers are with all of our friends in Japan.
 
I don't know if it will be a "big" issue...

but the DVC hawaii project was based at least in a significant portion on selling large amounts of memberships in japan. Logically, since the japanese have vacationed (golf in particular) in hawaii for decades - the DVC anchor/ home location in Oahu is a good first stepping stone to Disneyland...with the ultimate goal (as always) being to get more guests to WDW and guaranteed repeat business to the US parks.

It's not as though japan has lost half of its population...but since its so densely populated and the japanese economy has been in decline since 1989 (their economy actually melted down in 89...but they have managed to stay in the game since) that we don't know how they will be affected moving forward. The natural disaster aside...the nuclear danger now at red alert levels could be a major catastrophe that's still unfolding

What we have learned about Chernyobol since the fall of the USSR is that the damage and loss was much greater than we first thought behind the curtain...and when i hear analysts from MIT and the IAEA talking about shifting winds and clouds or smoke laced with Cesium 137...then that hits the "Uh oh" button
 
I suspect years from now when the "history" is written, the rollout of Aluani will be looked back on as a textbook example of unfortunate timing. A period of extended domestic economic downturn, aggravated by a key foreign market suffering a massive natural disaster is pretty much the last time one would pick to open up and pitch expensive ownerships in a destination time share.

Will things eventually turn around? Certainly - but don't hold your breath and in the interim don't be surprised to see marketing gimmicks (read: rebates/discounting, disguised as time-sensitive special offers) starting to appear in Aluani pitches, similar to we saw Disney forced into to move bodies into Saratoga.

And when that happens, you heard it hear first!! :surfweb:
 
I suspect years from now when the "history" is written, the rollout of Aluani will be looked back on as a textbook example of unfortunate timing. A period of extended domestic economic downturn, aggravated by a key foreign market suffering a massive natural disaster is pretty much the last time one would pick to open up and pitch expensive ownerships in a destination time share.

Will things eventually turn around? Certainly - but don't hold your breath and in the interim don't be surprised to see marketing gimmicks (read: rebates/discounting, disguised as time-sensitive special offers) starting to appear in Aluani pitches, similar to we saw Disney forced into to move bodies into Saratoga.

And when that happens, you heard it hear first!! :surfweb:

In most points...I agree.

However...Saratoga wasn't "sold" on time-sensitive offers. They did discounts as they have/ will do with every DVC site...but they still increased the per point base price as they "sold" saratoga.

But here's my take on that:
Saratoga was disney throwing up a bland, mass constructed, low appeal "walmart" of DVC on a failed tract of land. And they did it at the right time, as the entire financial system was built on lies at the time and the myth of "wealth" was (now exposed) just elaborate, unsecured debt based on new formulas.

That's why i say it was "sold". Because when anybody could get a 30,000 discover card or visa, regardless of income or debt, then it made it easy for the vulture...err, i mean "dvc sales representatives" ...to get someone to get all zealed up and charge some points up. And they all figured "when we sell our 100,000 house for 450,000...then we'll pay this off :)

Of course...it was bubkus...obviously and predictably.

So now DVC has hundreds if not thousands of saratoga contracts floating out there on resale sites...and they are sitting on a pile of reclaimed points that stretches from here to the moon.


As far as the Hawaii development...who the heck knows. My gut is that the damage in Japan is much worse than the japanese government is letting on...so that segment of sales is probably going to dry up for some time. And if you have read any articles about housing statistics or analysist projections for a 15-25% "double dip" housing crash to occur in the US in 2011...that is also a problem for things such as timeshares. because a housing slump will destroy more jobs and lower class wealth and assets...causing a much larger blow to our fiscal future than a dip in the NYSE for those that build mansions on Oahu...as opposed to booking just a studio pool view.

But hey...bread and circuses for everyone!!!!:woohoo:
 

Actually, the long term damage from Chernoble was greatly exaggerated...and they didn't even have any containment device...something the Japan reactor...and every other reactor for that matter...does.
 
Actually, the long term damage from Chernoble was greatly exaggerated...and they didn't even have any containment device...something the Japan reactor...and every other reactor for that matter...does.


There is much more damage to Japan than simply the reactors. Sections of Japan and thousands of people were simply washed away. Many of their technical factories are shuttered in the tsunami area (take a peek at the affect on our manufacturing already). I was also surprised how big the food exports supported the country.....that's a problem in areas of Japan. Their economy was just crawling out of recession and it will take a decade or more to rebuild what was washed away.....now....add the problems of the reactor onto all of that. The stories of loss there are heartbreaking.


I didn't understand why Disney went ahead with Hawaii in the first place. The market in Japan was not robust at the time, recession plus everybody has to FLY there which is an additional expense which other DVC properties are not tied to. It seemed like a place people would visit ever so often but not yearly or more like WDW.

There will not only be an impact on Hawaii.....WDW and DL will take a hit too.

DL has marketed to Japanese guests for YEARS....but the surprise is WDW. I had no idea that Disney AND Orlando had been targeting their marketing to Japan. Now add onto Orlando's possible problems with the downturn the last 3 years of guests from Great Britian (another target audience).

I guess that promise to eliminate discounting by fellow castmember Bob in 2009 will be post-poned a little longer.

Hey - they were giving away DVC properties to cash sales for 40% discounts. Why BUY DVC right now?

Disney will certainly survive, but it's not going to be a robust time for DVC for some time.
 
Actually, the long term damage from Chernoble was greatly exaggerated...and they didn't even have any containment device...something the Japan reactor...and every other reactor for that matter...does.

well...since the estimates are from 4000 to 1 million...and nobody is rushing to confirm or deny those or anything in between...i'm gonna say the jury is still out on this one.
 
There is much more damage to Japan than simply the reactors. Sections of Japan and thousands of people were simply washed away. Many of their technical factories are shuttered in the tsunami area (take a peek at the affect on our manufacturing already). I was also surprised how big the food exports supported the country.....that's a problem in areas of Japan. Their economy was just crawling out of recession and it will take a decade or more to rebuild what was washed away.....now....add the problems of the reactor onto all of that. The stories of loss there are heartbreaking.


I didn't understand why Disney went ahead with Hawaii in the first place. The market in Japan was not robust at the time, recession plus everybody has to FLY there which is an additional expense which other DVC properties are not tied to. It seemed like a place people would visit ever so often but not yearly or more like WDW.

There will not only be an impact on Hawaii.....WDW and DL will take a hit too.

DL has marketed to Japanese guests for YEARS....but the surprise is WDW. I had no idea that Disney AND Orlando had been targeting their marketing to Japan. Now add onto Orlando's possible problems with the downturn the last 3 years of guests from Great Britian (another target audience).

I guess that promise to eliminate discounting by fellow castmember Bob in 2009 will be post-poned a little longer.

Hey - they were giving away DVC properties to cash sales for 40% discounts. Why BUY DVC right now?

Disney will certainly survive, but it's not going to be a robust time for DVC for some time.

thank you...that's where i was going with my comments. i was concerned more with the power of nature as opposed to the atom.

japan's economy isn't exactly stellar (nor is ours for that matter)...and who knows the ripples of this from a monetary standpoint
 
Reuters today (March31) has updated the situation in Japan. Whew, what a mess. Her are the "Cliff Notes".........

* Pressure is mounting to expand the evacuation zone

* 70,000 evacuated already
* 130,00 who live 10 miles beyond the current evacuation zone now encouraged to leave - but still not mandatory

* Radiation now continuously flowing into seawater at 4,000 times the legal limit

* Still experiencing rolling blackouts and fuel is in low supply

* Current estimates of damage to Japan's economy

* Cost to rebuild - $300 billion (yes, that's a B)
* Cost to rebuild Kobe after earthquake $130 billion
* After Katrina $81 billion



* Public debt BEFORE the earthquake $ 5 trillion (wowza)


* Estimated costs for nuclear-related compensation (not included in the $300Billion amount) $130 Billion (there is that B again) (4 times the company's equity)

* Some crazy nutcases (my editing - not Reuters) have thought these exploded, salt crusted reactors could be saved. They are now admitting they will have to shut down and encase them - and will never be used again. (about time - ok.....back to more objective news)

* Japanese manufacturing immediately slumped to a 2-year low - sharpest monthly fall on record and continues.

* Japanese tourism has fallen to record lows. Airlines cancelling flights - not enough passengers.

* 1% of economy is food sales outside Japan - nearly completely stalled for now.

* Shipments of manufacturered goods hits a record low - comparable to last recession.

* Japan expected to fall back into recession - 2 year estimate.


How sad for an entire country. I continue my prayers each day - some day they are bound to have good news.



I don't see many Japanese heading to DL or WDW and sounds like DVC in Hawaii will be offering some pretty good incentives as Japanese owners disappear.
 


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