Have you ever seen DVC direct prices decrease before?

[SouthPhilly]

Hey everyone,

I was just wondering if anyone can recall seeing Disney reduce their $/point pricing in the past? With the broader economic turmoil ahead and the inevitable continuation of fed rate hikes, every industry should be feeling the pain soon if they haven't already and what I'm wondering is if Disney will be like other industries who will inevitably see demand slow and reduce prices or if they'll just sit flat on current pricing as they already own the properties. I'm looking to purchase a 500 point contract and I'm not necessarily in any rush, but I didn't know if it was worth trying to hold out for some price pullbacks with the broader market or if anyone can say they've never seen Disney DVC's priced at a rate lower than a previous rate direct.

Thank you!

 

[Iceman93]

They won't directly lower prices, but they'll offer incentives that essentially do the same thing. "Buy 200 points or more and get 10% more points for free" or similar.

 

[RoseGold]

They offer incentives, or temporary sales we call firesales, like the BW one not so long ago and the Aulani one. I would expect a BLT one soon-ish actually, maybe when VGF2 is done.

If I were buying that many points and were in for the long haul, I would seriously considering Poly2. You need a resale contract to get the incentive pricing when it opens. VGF2 was very good, but you already had to be set up as a member. Historically, that pricing is as low as it gets. Covid changed that a little, but I would still plan for it if you want direct and Poly2.

If you don't care about direct, the other plan would be to buy a couple 200-ish resale contracts and take your time. There are DEALS out there. There's a lot on the market, it's a buyer's market. And you only need a couple. It would be hard for me to buy direct right now, with so many good looking resale options.

Buying this much, I would get some legal advice. There are ways to set this up in trusts or companies that don't require probate. People do it all the time.

Oh, and I would never buy a 500 point contract. Resale, it will get ROFRed because the pricing will be low, and they're impossible to resell. I would always split this into multiple contracts. 150-200-ish buying resale, 100-ish if buying direct. These rules are complicated buying direct for the first time, but you can buy whatever you want resale and then they'll let you split the contracts.

 

[SouthPhilly]

They offer incentives, or temporary sales we call firesales, like the BW one not so long ago and the Aulani one. I would expect a BLT one soon-ish actually, maybe when VGF2 is done.

If I were buying that many points and were in for the long haul, I would seriously considering Poly2. You need a resale contract to get the incentive pricing when it opens. VGF2 was very good, but you already had to be set up as a member. Historically, that pricing is as low as it gets. Covid changed that a little, but I would still plan for it if you want direct and Poly2.

If you don't care about direct, the other plan would be to buy a couple 200-ish resale contracts and take your time. There are DEALS out there. There's a lot on the market, it's a buyer's market. And you only need a couple. It would be hard for me to buy direct right now, with so many good looking resale options.

Buying this much, I would get some legal advice. There are ways to set this up in trusts or companies that don't require probate. People do it all the time.

We weren't big fans during our DVC stay at Poly, I think we've kind of settled on wanting to go with Grand Floridian as it's our family's favorite besides WL. However, with the way things have been looking it seems it only gets harder and harder to waitlist VGF and will probably eventually be impossible as they sell what's left. Being our favorite, should we stick to buying VGF? A few years back I wouldn't have hesitated to go cheaper with the intent to waitlist into VGF as we never had trouble. However, the last two years has been a fail.

 

[RoseGold]

We weren't big fans during our DVC stay at Poly, I think we've kind of settled on wanting to go with Grand Floridian as it's our family's favorite besides WL. However, with the way things have been looking it seems it only gets harder and harder to waitlist VGF and will probably eventually be impossible as they sell what's left. Being our favorite, should we stick to buying VGF? A few years back I wouldn't have hesitated to go cheaper with the intent to waitlist into VGF as we never had trouble. However, the last two years has been a fail.

DVC isn't right for most people. Buying direct is right for even less people.

Maybe? Are you in this for decades? Buying direct is like driving a new car off the lot. It drops immediately. The Blue Card benefits are pretty sad right now. So you have to decide how much you value future resorts (maybe) or events (maybe) or stingy discounts (maybe).

If you're booking studios, which it doesn't sound like you are with 500 points, you shouldn't need VGF points to get one of the studios. But you probably will for the larger rooms, because VGF is now heavily weighted to studios. The flip side to that is if you buy VGF planning to get a bigger room, you might be setting yourself up to fail. And if you're less picky, maybe SSR points would work and maybe you're at AKL this time.

VGF1 is great, but VGF2 was a cheap flip on an aging building. Poly2 will be an all new tower. It's a product worth considering IMO. We should at least know the floorplan in plenty of time to buy a resale contract and get the existing member discounts.

To answer your question, I don't see any price cuts coming in the near future. Prices need to stay high for the Poly2 pricing.

 

[tjkraz]

New incentives will be announced on November 17, and that will set the table for the next ~2.5 months. I expect the incentives to be better than what we see today. But no telling how much better. Every DVC resort has a finite number of points. Aside from a trickle of ROFR activity, DVC basically only has one opportunity to sell each destination. For that reason, they tend to avoid massive discounting. They do have financial goals to meet, so deeper incentives are always a possibility when things get really slow. Especially when buying a large number like 500 points.

You need 150 direct points to qualify for member discounts. Beyond that you could look at acquiring more points via resale to save. But resale purchases limit where and how those points can be used.

Above all else, make sure you buy into resort(s) that you want to stay at. The 11 month booking window is invaluable if you expect to stay at certain locations, book lower cost "standard view" rooms, etc.

 

[SouthPhilly]

DVC isn't right for most people. Buying direct is right for even less people.

Maybe? Are you in this for decades? Buying direct is like driving a new car off the lot. It drops immediately. The Blue Card benefits are pretty sad right now. So you have to decide how much you value future resorts (maybe) or events (maybe) or stingy discounts (maybe).

If you're booking studios, which it doesn't sound like you are with 500 points, you shouldn't need VGF points to get one of the studios. But you probably will for the larger rooms, because VGF is now heavily weighted to studios. The flip side to that is if you buy VGF planning to get a bigger room, you might be setting yourself up to fail. And if you're less picky, maybe SSR points would work and maybe you're at AKL this time.

VGF1 is great, but VGF2 was a cheap flip on an aging building. Poly2 will be an all new tower. It's a product worth considering IMO.

To answer your question, I don't see any price cuts coming in the near future. Prices need to stay high for the Poly2 pricing.

400​	$79,100 Direct​	$66,000 Resale​	$13,100 Savings​
450​	$89,050 Direct​	$74,250 Resale​	$14,800 Savings​
500​	$99,000 Direct​	$82,500 Resale​	$16,500 Savings​

I can't imagine I'm ever going to use 20% off of Disney Merchandise to offset any of the above savings for Grand Floridian.
I mean using an average I figured out for us as $300 per trip in merchandise, that's $60 per trip for a whopping $600 saved per decade lol. Even adding in food for how we normally dine, we maybe would save $100/trip. So now I'm at $1,600 saved in a decade with those perks.

As for the rooms, it would vary. I'd ideally like to maximize points by booking multiple studios when we have larger groups, but there would be many trips where we'd like to utilize the 1 or 2 BR villas.

I don't think I'm ever going to want to stay in a future, new resort bad enough to want to pay the extra $13,000 - $16,500. Is there anything of value being lost buying direct, in your opinion, other than the ability to book future resorts?

 

[tjkraz]

400​	$79,100 Direct​	$66,000 Resale​	$13,100 Savings​
450​	$89,050 Direct​	$74,250 Resale​	$14,800 Savings​
500​	$99,000 Direct​	$82,500 Resale​	$16,500 Savings​

I can't imagine I'm ever going to use 20% off of Disney Merchandise to offset any of the above savings for Grand Floridian.
I mean using an average I figured out for us as $300 per trip in merchandise, that's $60 per trip for a whopping $600 saved per decade lol. Even adding in food for how we normally dine, we maybe would save $100/trip. So now I'm at $1,600 saved in a decade with those perks.

Other perks which are limited to direct purchase owners are admission to the exclusive member lounges and attendance at Moonlight Magic and similar events like next week's member Meet and Treat. Moonlight Magic is like the paid Disney After Hours except its completely free for DVC members. It can be very hit-and-miss because dates aren't always announced far enough in advance to plan around.

Historically the other big perk was a healthy discount on Annual Passes. But that's on hold right now.

You only need 150 direct points to qualify for these perks. So you could buy some points direct and others resale. Only the direct points would be usable at Riviera, Disneyland Hotel and other destinations. They would all be usable at VGF for 11 month bookings.

If you aren't in any hurry, I would wait until at least 11/17 to decide. DVC incentives tend to favor larger purchases. IMO, it's at least worth waiting to see what they offer at the 500 point level.

As for the rooms, it would vary. I'd ideally like to maximize points by booking multiple studios when we have larger groups, but there would be many trips where we'd like to utilize the 1 or 2 BR villas.

I don't think you'll have any trouble getting 1B or 2B villas at Grand Floridan at 11 months, or the newer Resort Studios. The older Deluxe Studios are most likely to pose an issue during periods of peak demand when VGF owners scramble to gobble them up.

 

[RoseGold]

Is there anything of value being lost buying direct, in your opinion, other than the ability to book future resorts?

To me, this is about exit strategy. If you plan to have this pried our of your dying hands to your kids, then direct might be a good plan. DVC's cost is actually mostly dues, so I can make an argument for buying direct if you are committed. You know if that's you or not. Buying VGF direct vs resale isn't a huge difference right now, and it's worth considering. Heck, I'd consider RIV if you plan to hold this forever. I'd never consider RIV myself at all because I plan to sell and it has the restrictions.

Multiple studios and occasional larger rooms is a VGF strategy for sure. All the new studios would make this work great. In contract CCV has very few studios, so you'd really need to be leaning to larger rooms. Multiple studios can be tough to pull off with SAP, like SSR.

That said, my stay in VGF2 was a complete nightmare. It's an old building. You can hear everything. Don't expect modern, luxury hotel standards. A lot of the DVC properties are quite old and in sad shape. That's why Poly2 is a big change IMO. It actually has a deluxe location, unlike RIV, and it will be a new build.

 

[tjkraz]

One other comment: 500 points is a lot to own at one location. I know this may be a difficult decision to make, but it's worth questioning whether you really want to spend every trip at VGF for the next 40 years. Most owners with that number of points buy multiple resorts in smaller quantities so they have the 11-month booking privilege at a variety of locations. The banking and borrowing features can be used to amass a higher number of points every 2-3 years. for example, if you own 200 VGF points, you can use banking and borrowing to have 400 points available every 2 years or 600 points every 3 years.

VGF is one of the more expensive resorts to buy into, and its point charts are the highest of all WDW resorts. Other resorts can offer an entirely different experience. Resorts like Wilderness Lodge and Animal Kingdom Lodge have a unique feel all their own. Riviera has easy transportation to both Epcot and Hollywood studios, plus the BoardWalk for its shopping and dining. Old Key West and Saratoga offer more laid back destinations which aren't necessarily focused on the parks. Next year DVC will start selling points at Disneyland Hotel if you have any desire to travel out west.

Grand Floridian points could be used at most of these destinations, but it's tough to pay that premium and end up using them at 7 months to stay elsewhere.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Hey everyone,

I was just wondering if anyone can recall seeing Disney reduce their $/point pricing in the past? With the broader economic turmoil ahead and the inevitable continuation of fed rate hikes, every industry should be feeling the pain soon if they haven't already and what I'm wondering is if Disney will be like other industries who will inevitably see demand slow and reduce prices or if they'll just sit flat on current pricing as they already own the properties. I'm looking to purchase a 500 point contract and I'm not necessarily in any rush, but I didn't know if it was worth trying to hold out for some price pullbacks with the broader market or if anyone can say they've never seen Disney DVC's priced at a rate lower than a previous rate direct.

Thank you!

They decreased a resort price once that I know of - at VB. Probably a decade or so ago. Maybe there's been one other but that's it. Incentives have gotten better more than once though. During the 2008-2010 timeframe there were some very very good incentives. It doesn't feel like the current DVC is as inclined to do similar as they were under that management team. Never can tell however.

 

[SouthPhilly]

1.) Historically the other big perk was a healthy discount on Annual Passes. But that's on hold right now.

2.) You only need 150 direct points to qualify for these perks. So you could buy some points direct and others resale. Only the direct points would be usable at Riviera, Disneyland Hotel and other destinations. They would all be usable at VGF for 11 month bookings.

3.)If you aren't in any hurry, I would wait until at least 11/17 to decide. DVC incentives tend to favor larger purchases. IMO, it's at least worth waiting to see what they offer at the 500 point level.

1.) Is there a rule of thumb on how many park days you need to visit per year for the AP to be worthwhile?

2.) To be used at 11 months out, the resale points also have to be at Grand Floridian right? I can't use my 150 points + balance on another contract for one merged stay, they'd be two different reservations? And if the resale is different than my direct, I can't utilize those non-direct points for my stay with my home resort at 11 months? (Sorry, I think I worded that weird lol)

3.) I see the current promotion for direct ends on 11/16, what's the rationale for 11/17? I know resale tends to get a little cheaper as their inventory spikes in Dec-February, I was wondering if theres any correlation to the direct trend.

 

[tjkraz]

1.) Is there a rule of thumb on how many park days you need to visit per year for the AP to be worthwhile?

Overly-simplified: it's more about trips than days. If you can squeeze 2 or more trips into a single set of APs, you'll probably come out ahead. The DVC Sorcerer pass was priced at $899. MYW tickets are priced to favor longer trips. A single set of MYW tickets for 5-10 days is minimum $500-600.

But WDW hasn't been selling APs for almost a year now and there's no sign of them returning. Hard to plan around this "benefit" without knowing its future. I think it's to DVC's benefit to offer SOME park admission discounts to owners. They've done limited-time MYW deals in the past. But no movement in nearly a year.

2.) To be used at 11 months out, the resale points also have to be at Grand Floridian right? I can't use my 150 points + balance on another contract for one merged stay, they'd be two different reservations? And if the resale is different than my direct, I can't utilize those non-direct points for my stay with my home resort at 11 months? (Sorry, I think I worded that weird lol)

You only have 11 month booking rights for points *owned* at a given resort. You couldn't buy 250 VGF points and 250 Saratoga Springs points and use them all to book VGF at 11 months. The SSR points only have 11 month rights at SSR.

However you could buy 250 VGF points direct and 250 VGF points resale and combine them for a single 11 month reservation. Having both contracts with the exact same deeded owners and the same Use Year would streamline things best, but not essential.

3.) I see the current promotion for direct ends on 11/16, what's the rationale for 11/17? I know resale tends to get a little cheaper as their inventory spikes in Dec-February, I was wondering if theres any correlation to the direct trend.

The recent pattern has been to offer better incentives during the first few weeks of a promotion and then reduced incentives after. From 8/25 to 10/12, 500 points at VGF were discounted by $12 per point. Now thru 11/16 the discount is only $8 each.

Assuming DVC sticks with this pattern, I'd expect the incentives from 11/17 until mid-December to be better than $8 per point. How much better? no idea. VGF sales have been a little stagnant the last 2-3 months, even with those higher incentives in August and September. So it wouldn't surprise me if they increased the discounts in November to goose sales a bit.

 

[RoseGold]

You don't care about averages in resale. You are buying big contracts, which are the low end and the hardest to sell. It's a current buyer's market. You put in some low bids. You take your time, you buy a good contract. I don't see why you would wait if you plan to buy resale.

APs are the elephant in the room. I would be seriously apprehensive buying this many points with the way APs have been treated, unless you're a Florida resident, who should at least have some kind of access. This topic has been beaten to death in other threads, but I don't see any sign they are coming back. Disney's actual comments on this topic leans to never or looking very different than before, IMO.

I have APs, from the brief window they were for sale, and I'm still very nervous owning as much DVC as I do without APs for sale. I know I wouldn't have even considered DVC without APs as an option.

 

[SouthPhilly]

You don't care about averages in resale. You are buying big contracts, which are the low end and the hardest to sell. It's a current buyer's market. You put in some low bids. You take your time, you buy a good contract. I don't see why you would wait if you plan to buy resale.

APs are the elephant in the room. I would be seriously apprehensive buying this many points with the way APs have been treated, unless you're a Florida resident, who should at least have some kind of access. This topic has been beaten to death in other threads, but I don't see any sign they are coming back. Disney's actual comments on this topic leans to never or looking very different than before, IMO.

I have APs, from the brief window they were for sale, and I'm still very nervous owning as much DVC as I do without APs for sale. I know I wouldn't have even considered DVC without APs as an option.

I wasn't necessarily planning to buy resale, I was just keeping it open as an option for the savings.
I see a lot of people very annoyed with the AP situation, often to the point many say, "I don't even see a reason to have DVC anymore." This is what has had me most confused as of late and wondering if there's something off with my math. For instance, 1 week per year at a 1BR VGF during our preferred time of year for ten years would cost me about $85,000 out of pocket. Whereas the DVC direct would cost me $87,200+ (contract + 10 years of dues @ current price excluding variation there). I'm breaking even at the 10 year mark on a 40 year contract, unless I'm overlooking for or not accounting for something.

 

[RoseGold]

For instance, 1 week per year at a 1BR VGF during our preferred time of year for ten years would cost me about $85,000 out of pocket. Whereas the DVC direct would cost me $87,200+ (contract + 10 years of dues @ current price excluding variation there). I'm breaking even at the 10 year mark on a 40 year contract, unless I'm overlooking for or not accounting for something.

My comparison room was the Art of Animation family suite, which went up WAY more than I calculated. The room that didn't was Swolphin. I probably would have been better mathematically there. DVC will never be a cheap option. It might be cheap-er than some other very expensive options.

Right now, point rentals have not caught up to price increases. I'd argue renting points is smarter mathematically, as is Swolphin. Depends on what your goals are and why you are buying.

And do you want to go for a week with no APs?

 

[RoseGold]

I have also learned, the hard way, that inviting people to Disney is a four figure discussion with tickets and planes and all of it. It hasn't been what I imagined in that way and it caused some real rifts over something that I perceived as being nice. This isn't like inviting someone to your beach house and they bring some beer and some groceries.

 

[Her Dotness]

I'm gonna sing that old familiar song, "Buy Where You Really Want To Stay."

RoseGold and others have made excellent points about not buying a 500pt contract. We've seen 300pt resales price-reduced more than once since VGF went on sale. Bigger is not better if you'd ever decide you simply want to sell, much less needing to. A contract as large as you're wanting will stagnate on the market for a long time, likely.

Diversification is the way to go, IMO, even if you ultimately want only VGF. The really small ones, 25-75 pts, command higher price-pers because they're in huge demand by people wanting to establish membership and buy direct later. And some simply want small addons.

We have 4 contracts ranging from 25 to 150–optimal amounts for selling if need be, all but one at VGF.

 

[SLThomas318]

I wasn't necessarily planning to buy resale, I was just keeping it open as an option for the savings.
I see a lot of people very annoyed with the AP situation, often to the point many say, "I don't even see a reason to have DVC anymore." This is what has had me most confused as of late and wondering if there's something off with my math. For instance, 1 week per year at a 1BR VGF during our preferred time of year for ten years would cost me about $85,000 out of pocket. Whereas the DVC direct would cost me $87,200+ (contract + 10 years of dues @ current price excluding variation there). I'm breaking even at the 10 year mark on a 40 year contract, unless I'm overlooking for or not accounting for something.

People with a lot of DVC points typically take multiple trips a year and as soon as you take 2 trips with-in a year, the annual pass is usually cheaper vs buying tickets for every trip. That's why some people are re-thinking DVC. If you plan on only 1 trip a year and need that many points for multiple rooms, then the annual pass isn't necessary.

AND def break this into smaller point contracts as all the other posters have mentioned. You will get more per point if/when you sell. Also not sure if you are looking to leave this to anyone, but we have 2 kids so we have our contracts so that we can split them. We just added on 120 points but did it as 2 x 60 point contracts.

 

[SouthPhilly]

I have also learned, the hard way, that inviting people to Disney is a four figure discussion with tickets and planes and all of it. It hasn't been what I imagined in that way and it caused some real rifts over something that I perceived as being nice. This isn't like inviting someone to your beach house and they bring some beer and some groceries.

Oh absolutely, my purchase is exclusively for my immediate family + siblings/grandparents who go regularly already, I just want to eliminate the room expense over the years if possible. We always stay at a deluxe resort and at the rate of a week a year it seems almost every scenario has us breaking even by 10 years +/- a year, faster if we added in a long weekend or two throughout the year in addition to our usual week.