Harry Potter helps Universal take bigger share of theme-park attendance

[mm1971]

If you read it closely, they are saying Disney's percentage of total went down. Very specific. There is no specific information on attendance numbers going up or down, only a % of the total. By all accounts, both Disney and US/IOA are seeing an increase in attendance. It only makes sense that with HP, a lot of people wanted to see it(especially with the movie tie ins) and may have bumped that figure higher. As I am sure numbers will increase again when the new section officially opens. Let's just hope for US/IOA's sake, that HP has staying power with the next generation as Star Wars and classic Disney has. So much of the new draw is HP.

Seaworld is what it is in my opinion. It will always have visitors due to it's proximity of both. They will benefit from an increase in tourism. If you have never tried Discovery Cove, it comes highly recommended.

I for one say...Good luck to both of them! Continued success means more development at both and a win win for us, the guests.

 

[TandemShoehorns]

If you read it closely, they are saying Disney's percentage of total went down. Very specific. There is no specific information on attendance numbers going up or down, only a % of the total. By all accounts, both Disney and US/IOA are seeing an increase in attendance. It only makes sense that with HP, a lot of people wanted to see it(especially with the movie tie ins) and may have bumped that figure higher. As I am sure numbers will increase again when the new section officially opens. Let's just hope for US/IOA's sake, that HP has staying power with the next generation as Star Wars and classic Disney has. So much of the new draw is HP.

Seaworld is what it is in my opinion. It will always have visitors due to it's proximity of both. They will benefit from an increase in tourism. If you have never tried Discovery Cove, it comes highly recommended.

I for one say...Good luck to both of them! Continued success means more development at both and a win win for us, the guests.

I also wish them both good luck.

If you read even more closely, you discover that "The market-share calculations are based on annual attendance estimates (emphasis mine) compiled by the Themed Entertainment Association and the consulting company AECOM".

I don't find it surprising that "market share" might increase when a new park is opened, as Disney's "market share" might increase with a fifth gate, but I have a hard time drawing any meaningful long-term conclusions from these estimates.

 

[HoneymoonandBEYOND]

Being a pass holder at both theme parks, I am happy with what both have done/ are doing.

Some things of note, which are all of course my personal opinion...

I am a gigantic HP fan, always have been since before the books were even a huge thing stateside (my grandmothers best friend who use to keep me as a child was an author and had heard rumblings that this book series would be a success), I have first edition books, etc.

That being said, though WWoHP is a brilliant land, it is a horribly utilized one and far to small for what it should have been. This "expansion" should have be done at the same time as the original, and yes I am well aware that Rowling had the vision and the park is small "for that reason" as defenders like to say, but truthfully I think it needed to be 2x that size.

I do however believe it was a GREAT move by Universal, as Harry Potter will certainly have long standing relevance as it is at the very least as iconic as Lord of the Rings, Star Wars, etc. and honestly has probably exceeded those for the age range that the parks are really aiming at.

I am also impressed with the constant changing and building Universal has done over the past few years, and I think it is smart and almost unprecedented at the growth in that time frame. They deserve to get a growth in attendance, they have put in a lot of time and work to get their due.

THAT being said,

I think Disney has some big stuff up its sleeves. The recent news of the change to FP+ is invigorating to say the least, and a happy medium to those wanting legacy FP back v. those defending FP+.

We know plenty of new stuff is coming to Disney, including the Disney Springs project that seems to be more and more interesting with every bit of news.

And of course the giant gamble of Avatar, which though I know will be beautiful, well done, and loaded with amazing and elite detail as Disney does with everything, but I am still rather conflicted at how well this is going to actually turn out. I do not think Avatar has any holding power, the original was only famous for the leap in CGI and 3d technology with a very "meh" story line (I was genuinely not a fan of this flick).

I think the big thing Disney has up their sleeve, and what may be the worse kept secret in the industry is the idea of Star Wars land. With the massive acquiring of what may be the MOST iconic franchise of all time, the money and time already fronted by Disney to lock up people like JJ to partake in this movie, and the massive outbreak of popularity due to hype (which is rather impressive) lines them up to make this happen. This of course is just my thought, and not even rumor based, but many people believe the same way and I have to believe Disney will not ignore that.

At the end of the day, I believe both parks are growing substantially. I think Universal has made some very fast, very influential, and very good additions and changes in their park - they have done amazing to get a large chunk of attendance in a rather quick time frame, but I do believe in the long run Disney is planning and prepared to get it back, and I don't believe it will have anything to do with Avatarland.

 

[xie]

That being said, though WWoHP is a brilliant land, it is a horribly utilized one and far to small for what it should have been. This "expansion" should have be done at the same time as the original, and yes I am well aware that Rowling had the vision and the park is small "for that reason" as defenders like to say, but truthfully I think it needed to be 2x that size.

Yep, the biggest problem with WWoHP is that it isn't big enough. I don't think Universal expected it to be as popular as it is. They knew they would get some folks in, but maybe not THAT many folks. And the attendance discrepancy between IoA and US made it very obvious that Potter was the draw.

I also read that Rowling was adamant about scale. However, hopefully she has also learned something about theme parks now that "her baby" is out in the wild, and has let them more properly scale Diagon Alley. I do recall reading some things about DA and how they worked hard to make more space for people but keep the same "scale feel". The sheer size of the visible part of the London Facade alone is a good sign, IMHO!

I do however believe it was a GREAT move by Universal, as Harry Potter will certainly have long standing relevance as it is at the very least as iconic as Lord of the Rings, Star Wars, etc. and honestly has probably exceeded those for the age range that the parks are really aiming at.

I am also impressed with the constant changing and building Universal has done over the past few years, and I think it is smart and almost unprecedented at the growth in that time frame. They deserve to get a growth in attendance, they have put in a lot of time and work to get their due.

Yep. Uni deserves some good attendance. WWoHP isn't perfect but it's very, very good. (I still crave frozen butterbeer 18 months later.) The tiny shops were the thing that put me off, because I literally could not see to browse what was for sale. In addition, some of the theming around the edges needed to be better (i.e. the part of the FJ queue that goes into the unthemed alley is pretty badly done - put some castle facade up there, people! Fake rocks! Let's go!).

At the end of the day, I believe both parks are growing substantially. I think Universal has made some very fast, very influential, and very good additions and changes in their park - they have done amazing to get a large chunk of attendance in a rather quick time frame, but I do believe in the long run Disney is planning and prepared to get it back, and I don't believe it will have anything to do with Avatarland.

I don't think Disney will get anything "back". I think that Disney used to capture people for a week - the average vacation length in Orlando is 8 days, as people go Saturday - Sunday or whatever. Disney used to capture people in their parks for the entire 8 days. These days, with Uni looking more appealing, a lot of people are splitting their stays and moving between Disney's lodging and Universal's partway through, or simply staying off property the whole week and visiting both Disney and Uni.

If anything, overall number of people visiting Orlando every year is going to continue to rise, and both Disney and Universal are going to continue to see rising attendance. I'm happy for them both, competition is good for everyone. Disney's been doing little but building DVC units and cruise ships for years, so it's time they got off their behinds and built some rides. (I'm pretty happy to hear EPCOT's finally going to be getting some Imagineering love again!)

 

[Disneychick75]

Pete addressed this in this week's podcast. He admitted that he didn't think that HP would affect WDW's market share and that he was wrong. Pete also pointed out that Diagon Alley is set to open. If if has the same effect, eg another 3% loss to Disney, their market share will fall below 70% which is huge.
Disney needs to step up their game. When Uni announces a new attraction, BOOM, it's done and done well fairly quickly where Disney announces something and proceeds at a snail's pace in comparison. The Fantasyland addition is pretty but it doesn't touch WWoHP. I say this as someone who likes HP but is not crazy about the series.

 

[profdsny]

Give any kids a choice between Harry Potter and Avatar and you know which way they are going. For that matter, any teen or young adult. I don't know of any kids who have seen Avatar dozens of times, or have dressed up as one of the figures in it.
Avatar is going to really be a one and done for WDW-AK. HP will keep them coming back to Uni again and again.

 

[BlackSwan]

Pete addressed this in this week's podcast. He admitted that he didn't think that HP would affect WDW's market share and that he was wrong. Pete also pointed out that Diagon Alley is set to open. If if has the same effect, eg another 3% loss to Disney, their market share will fall below 70% which is huge.
Disney needs to step up their game. When Uni announces a new attraction, BOOM, it's done and done well fairly quickly where Disney announces something and proceeds at a snail's pace in comparison. The Fantasyland addition is pretty but it doesn't touch WWoHP. I say this as someone who likes HP but is not crazy about the series.

ITA. If Disney really is planning a Star Wars land (and they really can't let the release of Part VII go by without a major SW addition to at least one of it's parks in the works), they need to announce it and get it done ASAP.

 

[dismom]

A couple of comments to make on this interesting thread:

HP will continue to add fans, because the WW of HP is based not only on discounted DVD's at Target, but on a very well written series of books that turns kids into avid readers and followers! My dd started reading them at 8, and has spent the last 3 years immersed in HP. She has talked about 7 of her friends into reading the whole series. Two families have since gone to FL, spending only one day at MK and another day at IoA - just for HP. My nephew is 7 & he just started reading them. So the books will always generate new fans. Who will beg their parents to go to the parks.

As far as Avatar goes, James Cameron is beginning to film Avatar 2, 3, and 4 back to back to back, to be released yearly, like HP, the Twilight series, The Hunger Games, etc. I am sure that Disney will work towards finishing Avatarland or whatever they are calling it by the time the movie is released!

We are huge Disney fanatics, but also really excited about making a second trip to IoA & now US, just to see Diagon Alley! We chose to skip a Disney trip last year so we could also visit Diagon Alley this year!

 

[lockedoutlogic]

ITA. If Disney really is planning a Star Wars land (and they really can't let the release of Part VII go by without a major SW addition to at least one of it's parks in the works), they need to announce it and get it done ASAP.

Hmmmm...want to explain your confidence in your stance?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Give any kids a choice between Harry Potter and Avatar and you know which way they are going. For that matter, any teen or young adult. I don't know of any kids who have seen Avatar dozens of times, or have dressed up as one of the figures in it.
Avatar is going to really be a one and done for WDW-AK. HP will keep them coming back to Uni again and again.

You have a point...
But until they actually bother to build the thing over at ak...there's really no way to know if that matters at all.

Two years of lead time before any construction...ridiculous

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Pete addressed this in this week's podcast. He admitted that he didn't think that HP would affect WDW's market share and that he was wrong. Pete also pointed out that Diagon Alley is set to open. If if has the same effect, eg another 3% loss to Disney, their market share will fall below 70% which is huge.
Disney needs to step up their game. When Uni announces a new attraction, BOOM, it's done and done well fairly quickly where Disney announces something and proceeds at a snail's pace in comparison. The Fantasyland addition is pretty but it doesn't touch WWoHP. I say this as someone who likes HP but is not crazy about the series.

Comcast is taking the fight to them... Because they aren't afraid of them one bit and have to be aggressive with the future of their core profits/business always one step away from radically changing.

It's aggressive and it SHOULD be good for fans of wdw...
But they haven't budged much. About 9 months to build a theater for an old show? 3 years for the dwarve junior coaster? About a year to build a parking deck behind pleasure island?

They sure aren't acting like they've noticed.

At some point...analysts will start to make predictions/recommendations based on perceived "weakness" in the profit factory in Orlando...perhaps if shanghai also opens soft like Hong Kong and Disneyland goes down a little towards equilibrium off the DCA bump...

You'd be surprised how fast the pilot light kicks on then...

Warp nine, mr sulu

 

[MassJester]

At some point...analysts will start to make predictions/recommendations based on perceived "weakness" in the profit factory in Orlando...perhaps if shanghai also opens soft like Hong Kong and Disneyland goes down a little towards equilibrium off the DCA bump...

You'd be surprised how fast the pilot light kicks on then...

Warp nine, mr sulu

Pain is a great motivator. And fans will benefit.

 

[KidDurango]

I may have missed a post where someone actually extrapolated the numbers based on what was reported, but it seems to me all the "yea Universal is eating Disney's lunch" people are a little off base. Yes, according to the numbers, Universal did gain market share. If a market place had two stores, and a third opened, I would expect to see the two markets lose market share, and the third to gain in year over year comparisons. However, in this case, and the Disney/ Universal case you have to look at the growth of the market. With the numbers presented, Disney grew their attendance. Granted, it was not at the rate of Universal, but when your attendance is at 2 million (a hypothetical figure for demonstration purposes only) and you grow it to 2.5 million, you can claim a 25% increase. When you are at 5 million already, that half million only shows as a 10% increase. Then when you say a 25% increase vs. a 10% it looks like somebody is doing much worse. The fact is Universals expansion has been great for them and they spent large amounts of money to get there. Their investment grew the market as a whole, but did not shrink the Disney attendance. There is a business argument to be made that in that same period, Disney spent far less and still grew its attendance and its profits. So what was Disney's cost of new customer acquisition vs. Universal's. I would bet that Disney's was far less.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I don't think anyone is saying that...


What is significant here is that Disney is suffering a market slip...Which is something they have not had to contend with.

They are still "hogging the Lunch"...but with the pie being so large now... Even a 5% loss would equal huge amount of revenue/profits.

Remember that wdw makes its profits off the ancillary spending as well... Almost all the profits are from giftshops...

So a loss in share would scare the accountants like nothing else...those people are NOT where they are supposed to be:..
In the Main Street emporium or mousegear

 

[mvk]

I don't think anyone is saying that...


What is significant here is that Disney is suffering a market slip...Which is something they have not had to contend with.

They are still "hogging the Lunch"...but with the pie being so large now... Even a 5% loss would equal huge amount of revenue/profits.

Remember that wdw makes is profits of the ancillary spending as well... Almost all the profits are from giftshops...

So a loss in share would scare the accountants like nothing else...those people are NOT where they are supposed to be:..
In the Main Street emporium or mousegear

And yet they keep showing great quarter over quarter results. There is nothing in the numbers that suggest Disney is feeling any affect of anything Universal is doing.

 

[Disneychick75]

And yet they keep showing great quarter over quarter results. There is nothing in the numbers that suggest Disney is feeling any affect of anything Universal is doing.

If Disney has a lot of guests, great but if those guests are going to the parks, staying offsite, and bringing in their own food or buying their souvenirs offsite, it's impacting them.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

And yet they keep showing great quarter over quarter results. There is nothing in the numbers that suggest Disney is feeling any affect of anything Universal is doing.

A loss in share of travelers is still gonna lead to a loss...it can't be quantified...but still.

You are assuming "enough is enough" is a recognized concept in the Disney corporate dictionary.

These conversations are about economic realities...not " Disney is better than ____" fanboy type stuff

They want maximum profits...nothing less. Loss of travelers will yield less than full profit potential.

That's kinda the end of it.

If you're wondering why they post record profits... Check the line forming to jump at "free dining" at a higher rate again - year after year. Or the $800 premium annual pass...or the $50 6 oz filet at citricos.

Disney won't rest and be happy with that... They most definitely are trying to figure out to the get the "other"people who aren't booked yet... That's the market share.

 

[mvk]

A loss in share of travelers is still gonna lead to a loss...it can't be quantified...but still.

You are assuming "enough is enough" is a recognized concept in the Disney corporate dictionary.

These conversations are about economic realities...not " Disney is better than ____" fanboy type stuff

They want maximum profits...nothing less. Loss of travelers will yield less than full profit potential.

That's kinda the end of it.

If you're wondering why they post record profits... Check the line forming to jump at "free dining" at a higher rate again - year after year. Or the $800 premium annual pass...or the $50 6 oz filet at citricos.

Disney won't rest and be happy with that... They most definitely are trying to figure out to the get the "other"people who aren't booked yet... That's the market share.

And the economic realities are that, every quarter, they are bringing in massive gains and profits.

I know how they are bringing in the profits... but the only thing that matters is, they are bringing them in. They are not being impacted at all, whatsoever, by anything Universal does.

The only impact Universal is seemingly having is, some families are extending their vacation by an extra day and going there. That isn't cutting into Disney time/money at all. It's more likely that Universal doing whatever they are doing is helping drive some people over to Disney as well, as most people that are going to head to Orlando for the main reason of seeing something at Universal are going to likely spend a day at the Magic Kingdom or Epcot.

The numbers don't lie. Disney is not impacted at all by Universal.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I have long said that universal is not a true competitor to wdw... For a variety of reasons...but I can't agree with the stance there is no concern and they are happy to concede "an extra day"

First...an "extra day" in theory would still leave disney with about an 80% share...which is not the 70 it actually is...

Second...that "people have pushed their week stay to 8 days" is news to me. Where is the data? I'll admit I haven't had time to look at the numbers recently that I used to...so if the bar has moved beyond 7 days to 8...that is big.

Prior to 1998...the average stay at wdw was just shy of 6 days...when they opened AK...it bumped up to just shy of 7...6.88 or something.

That was viewed as an epic fail internally...eisners goal was to steam towards a solid 10 and beyond...unfortunately the USA killed that...as this society doesn't believe in time off and gives it begrudgingly. 7 is the wall. New capital construction ground to a halt thereafter. Not a coincidence. For every 21 "holiday"...there are dozens that can only spare the 6 or 7 days...

Has that trend finally changed? Honest question.

 

[ChipnDale79]

And the economic realities are that, every quarter, they are bringing in massive gains and profits.

I know how they are bringing in the profits... but the only thing that matters is, they are bringing them in. They are not being impacted at all, whatsoever, by anything Universal does.

The only impact Universal is seemingly having is, some families are extending their vacation by an extra day and going there. That isn't cutting into Disney time/money at all. It's more likely that Universal doing whatever they are doing is helping drive some people over to Disney as well, as most people that are going to head to Orlando for the main reason of seeing something at Universal are going to likely spend a day at the Magic Kingdom or Epcot.

The numbers don't lie. Disney is not impacted at all by Universal.

Bringing in record profits, sure.

However loss of market share typically also means loss of revenue, record profits are as high as they could be, even higher record profits......

If Disney is measuring their success solely on record profits, then they are looking at things in a short term world.