I don't believe there's any way to increase your chances of an upgrade, based on a given category. You're obvioulsy less likely to be upgraded from a one-bedroom suite to a two-bedroom, and you can't be upgraded if you book a category 1. But upgrades are very much random. I have heard of people being upgraded from rooms which they have requested. For example, from a "secret porthole" room (category 10), to a category 9 on deck 2. If you book a category guarantee, they could upgrade someone with an assigned room in that category and move you in to that room.
I believe that they keep the process as random as possible, so that people can't catch on and exploit the system. The best advice is to book a category that you'll be comfortable with, as that is more than likely what you'll get.