GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[cakebaker]

Sure it is. It’s a lower percent of positives....

With that many tests, the pop is not encouraging and it’s certainly not better overall. It tells us that even with 145k tests, there are a lot more people infected. You can’t just look at a number and say it’s better because it’s lower. It’s better than being higher, but that’s it.

 

[wombat_5606]

My county's Dashboard (daily updates), my state's Dashboard (though that is updated MWF once updated the numbers are broken down daily), my local news which heavily covers my metro (daily updates). Pretty much what is considered the main hospital system for our metro gives their daily update, etc.

Both my state and county gives the daily numbers. I do appreciate there's a simplicity to it but that doesn't do a whole lot if what I'm getting is an inaccurate reflection of the situation which I should note goes both ways. You wouldn't want to look at that and say "oh gee this state is doing well" and someone comes along and says "ehh...yeah no not really".

I never said they were making the numbers up and I dislike that would be thrown out there as if that's the reason I would have an objection. The number of contact tracers for my state I wrote about that issue back on June 12th on the DIS with respects to this source. That number hasn't budged since and back then we had double what they stated at that time; I can only imagine how many we have now. I'm not making that up. Despite the text of "updated as of July whatever" they haven't changed the contact tracing numbers for the state at all and that's just an example.

I've got to run now for lunch (sorry pre-arranged plans) so I'll politely leave it at that and move on in the discussion

Well, I'll just leave this for you to read when you come back and we will all, for sure, be onto another topic when you get back.

This is a model of what is happening. It is taking the daily information and making their model.
They get their data from reliable sources that they specifically list on their website.

Obviously, I can't speak to your discrepancies, but if your state is like Florida, maybe they aren't giving you more than they want you to know.

I would have no problem with using their visual to plan my travel. I'm definitely not going to anyplace that is red and I don't think anyone would doubt there is a situation there(easily confirmed in multiple other websites, reports, news, etc.) even if it doesn't have the actual numbers.

 

[JimMIA]

You want the rate to be 5% or less, so FL is still not testing enough, which is insane given the test numbers.

Actually the target rate is below 10%.

Florida has increased our testing by more than 50% in the last two weeks (200K/week to 300+K/week), and this week is going to be an even higher number. But there is never enough testing.

 

[KBoopaloo]

Here in MA we have been at or under 2% positive since June 18 and we just expanded some testing in higher risk communities because there is worry that our numbers are too steady and not declining any more so it is still spreading. This worry is with 167 cases being reported yesterday. 2% positivity. There is no way to spin 15,000 new cases as good. A lower positivity rate is better than what we’ve seen, yes, but 11% is a world away from being anything close to good news.

 

[anthony2k7]

I wonder if some of these results are lagging...which has happened over weekends. But yeah, still really bad.

Yep. I dont believe the tests taken are varying that wildly. So the numbers given must be due to backlogs. Question is how long is the backlog?

 

[JimMIA]

Here in MA we have been at or under 2% positive since June 18 and we just expanded some testing in higher risk communities because there is worry that our numbers are too steady and not declining any more so it is still spreading. This worry is with 167 cases being reported yesterday. 2% positivity. There is no way to spin 15,000 new cases as good. A lower positivity rate is better than what we’ve seen, yes, but 11% is a world away from being anything close to good news.

11% is NOT the FL number. That is ONE DAY's number.

As I've said about 10,000 times, you can't look at one day's numbers.

Our numbers for the last seven days have ranged from the low of 11.2% to one day of 18.2%.

 

[msjprincess]

Here in MA we have been at or under 2% positive since June 18 and we just expanded some testing in higher risk communities because there is worry that our numbers are too steady and not declining any more so it is still spreading. This worry is with 167 cases being reported yesterday. 2% positivity. There is no way to spin 15,000 new cases as good. A lower positivity rate is better than what we’ve seen, yes, but 11% is a world away from being anything close to good news.

I agree. NY is still testing over 50K people a day and we've been under 2% since June 1st. May 8th was the last time we were above 10%, Yesterday's numbers in Florida are a little better but it's not good news.

 

[JimMIA]

Yep. I dont believe the tests taken are varying that wildly. So the numbers given must be due to backlogs. Question is how long is the backlog?

That's why you should look at longer periods, like 7 day averages. That takes both the lags and the guesswork out of it.

 

[KBoopaloo]

11% is NOT the FL number. That is ONE DAY's number.

As I've said about 10,000 times, you can't look at one day's numbers.

Our numbers for the last seven days have ranged from the low of 11.2% to one day of 18.2%.

I know that but that is the number being heralded as “good news” in other threads on the rumor boards about Disney reopening which is why I used it.

 

[JimMIA]

I know that but that is the number being heralded as “good news” in other threads on the rumor boads about Disney reopening which is why I used it.

Right.

Any time I see anyone quoting ONE DAY'S numbers on anything, I immediately think they either don't know what they are doing, or they are choosing that one day because it matches what they want to see.

 

[wombat_5606]

Actually the target rate is below 10%.

Florida has increased our testing by more than 50% in the last two weeks (200K/week to 300+K/week), and this week is going to be an even higher number. But there is never enough testing.

I think what @RamblingMad is referring to is the recommended positivity rate according to the World Health Organization.

 

[cakebaker]

I know that but that is the number being heralded as “good news” in other threads on the rumor boards about Disney reopening which is why I used it.

That's because they not only want to go, they want proof that going is sensible and safe. So they hunt for anything that they might be able to use to prove they aren't being foolish and helping spread this thing. If the number of cases is lower, great news. It doesn't matter than they ran fewer tests. But if the pop goes up, well that means they didn't run enough tests. It's just trying to justify the unjustifiable.

 

[anthony2k7]

I know that but that is the number being heralded as “good news” in other threads on the rumor boards about Disney reopening which is why I used it.

Iv come here for a break from that thread! Its honestly like another world in there sometimes.

 

[JimMIA]

That's because they not only want to go, they want proof that going is sensible and safe. So they hunt for anything that they might be able to use to prove they aren't being foolish and helping spread this thing. If the number of cases is lower, great news. It doesn't matter than they ran fewer tests. But if the pop goes up, well that means they didn't run enough tests. It's just trying to justify the unjustifiable.

Right. You specify the subject, and I can Google "proof" for any point of view you want regarding that subject.

 

[3threebabies]

Right. You specify the subject, and I can Google "proof" for any point of view you want regarding that subject.

So true. Google proof is nothing new or unique, though it does make ”research” easier for the masses. For example, academic debaters use most of the same exact evidence when arguing either side of a resolution. Rules for evidence in case law allow attorneys for prosecution and defense mostly universal access to the evidence. Google is a lot easier than 30 pound books and miles of microfilm/fiche, but easy access also means proliferation of a lot of weak research.

 

[JimMIA]

Google is a lot easier than 30 pound books and miles of microfilm/fiche, but easy access also means proliferation of a lot of weak research.

And then there is access to the absolute truth by Twitter-proof!

It's absolutely astonishing how many people rely on Twits and Facebook posters for 100% of their daily news. But there is one caution to keep in mind:

 

[dvcgirl67]

Well, Disney World is trending on Twitter....and not for the reasons that The Bobs would want it to.

 

[anthony2k7]

Well, Disney World is trending on Twitter....and not for the reasons that The Bobs would want it to.

Uh oh. Now what happened?

 

[Karin1984]

Uh oh. Now what happened?

By the looks of it, people pointing out why it is a bad idea to travel to Florida now / for WDW to reopen. Plus the reworked promo Roomthreeseventeen posted and the video of the person going to the Disney nurses with symptoms and she narrates it with the remark 'anyone who asks if she has covid, I'm going to remove you from this group'. And some #desantisresign hashtags, or something similar.

 

[anthony2k7]

By the looks of it, people pointing out why it is a bad idea to travel to Florida now / for WDW to reopen. Plus the reworked promo Roomthreeseventeen posted and the video of the person going to the Disney nurses with symptoms and she narrates it with the remark 'anyone who asks if she has covid, I'm going to remove you from this group'. And some #desantisresign hashtags, or something similar.

Had to look myself

Thankfully no new issues, but yeah sentiment on there is a little different to the Disney Disboard rumours thread bubble!