GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[wombat_5606]

That’s the University of Washington model I referred to earlier. Yup, it’s been wildly inaccurate. It changes every day and never seems to get any better. Ohio does their own projections through Ohio State and the Cleveland Clinic, but they haven’t published them since April. Not sure those have been much better.

Actually, I never disagreed about that at all, and have come to the same conclusion. But I do question whether the 10-12x factor is valid any more, given that testing has tripled since those papers came out. Would love to see something more current, unfortunately it does not seem to exist.

It’s been fun discussing this with someone who puts so much thought into their replies, but I’m signing out now. Have fun, stay safe, and carry on!

Thanks for the discussion also. I hope things look good enough to you for you to make your trip to Disney. Be careful and stay safe, also.

FWIW, the University of Washington model, which is updated regularly, is estimating about 16.5K actual new infections today, August 2. That’s about 2x (a little less) what the testing totals have been averaging. But like I said earlier, they have been wildly inaccurate too, so who knows?

You do understand that's a projection, right? Perhaps go look at the FAQs on that site that explains how they arrive at their information. A projection is just an estimate. They have to have good data to make that projection and I think Florida isn't forthcoming with timely data.

Early in the pandemic, our state university did a study that showed that if we'd hadn't closed down when we did, we would have 10,000 more cases and 2,000 more deaths by April 25. Were they accurate? I don't know, but I do think I'm going to believe experts in their fields.

 

[JoJoGirl]

Thanks for the discussion also. I hope things look good enough to you for you to make your trip to Disney. Be careful and stay safe, also.



You do understand that's a projection, right? Perhaps go look at the FAQs on that site that explains how they arrive at their information. A projection is just an estimate.

Yes, I read the FAQ and I understand what an estimate is. That’s why I used the word estimate. Thanks for the info though. Goodbye.

 

[Pyotr]

Thanks for the discussion also. I hope things look good enough to you for you to make your trip to Disney. Be careful and stay safe, also.



You do understand that's a projection, right? Perhaps go look at the FAQs on that site that explains how they arrive at their information. A projection is just an estimate. They have to have good data to make that projection and I think Florida isn't forthcoming with timely data.

Early in the pandemic, our state university did a study that showed that if we'd hadn't closed down when we did, we would have 10,000 more cases and 2,000 more deaths by April 25. Were they accurate? I don't know, but I do think I'm going to believe experts in their fields.

Inaccurate modeling leads to poor policy, which is why we are in the position that we are in.

 

[wombat_5606]

Inaccurate modeling leads to poor policy, which is why we are in the position that we are in.

The model is only as good as the data. If you aren't given accurate data, the model suffers, which is why we are in the position that we are in.

 

[montreid]

Inaccurate modeling leads to poor policy, which is why we are in the position that we are in.

UWash's model is actually pretty good. They forcasted 180,000 deaths end of August back in April if policies were unchanged -- they are pretty close to it.

Many hotspots are due to reopening too quickly and NONE, not even California, followed the initial phased progression for reopening and pauses. Some just blew right through to Phase 3 in two weeks (FL,GA,TX) and very slow to pull back to phase 2 or even phase 1. That's why the plateau is so high in some states still vs others getting it down with a lot of work.

 

[izzy]

 

[dvcgirl67]

Well, Disney reported a 4.7 Billion loss for the quarter yesterday. 3.7 Billion of that was in the parks. They're slashing a whopping $700,000 in theme park spending. Theme park attendance in Florida is not what they'd hoped for. Turns out that most people won't turn out in a state where the virus is raging.

 

[JaxDad]

Well, Disney reported a 4.7 Billion loss for the quarter yesterday. 3.7 Billion of that was in the parks. They're slashing a whopping $700,000 in theme park spending. Theme park attendance in Florida is not what they'd hoped for. Turns out that most people won't turn out in a state where the virus is raging.

Perhaps, but you do realize the parks weren't yet re-opened in the third quarter, right?

 

[dvcgirl67]

Perhaps, but you do realize the parks weren't yet re-opened in the third quarter, right?

Yes. The CFO was on the earnings call, and she stated that theme park demand is not where they expected it to be. Even with the greatly reduced capacity, they are not hitting their numbers. She also stated that they expect those numbers to improve as the virus situation improves in Florida. They can open everything up in the state of Florida, but if it's not safe, people will stay home. It'll be several years before Disney World gets back to anything close to 2019.

 

[jlwhitney]

Well, Disney reported a 4.7 Billion loss for the quarter yesterday. 3.7 Billion of that was in the parks. They're slashing a whopping $700,000 in theme park spending. Theme park attendance in Florida is not what they'd hoped for. Turns out that most people won't turn out in a state where the virus is raging.

it is also people are going to pay the price for all the restrictions and things not operating. It’s not rocket science.

 

[montreid]

Still looks like outperformed Universal (94% drop).
https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando...-theme-parks-biz-plunges-thanks-to-covid.html
With cases off their peak and airlines starting to reinforce more stringent policies to align with the likes of Disney; perhaps the 'bubble' experience will be extended into MCO and improve travel. One still often have to connect through other hubs, so really need all airports to get into the act for travel to feel relatively safe to put families back into travel.

 

[Jrb1979]

Another 225 deaths today and still at 10% positive. I have no words anymore.

 

[Jrb1979]

@jlwhitney what's so funny? There are no words for how Florida has handled things. Yeah cases may be dropping but deaths are rising and the percentage isn't going anywhere. I guess as long people are working that's all that matters

 

[dvcgirl67]

@jlwhitney what's so funny? There are no words for how Florida has handled things. Yeah cases may be dropping but deaths are rising and the percentage isn't going anywhere. I guess as long people are working that's all that matters

Oh, you don't find all of the sickness and death funny? Me neither.

 

[robinb]

Oh, you don't find all of the sickness and death funny? Me neither.

I don't find sickness and death funny either.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

One month ago we were talking about Florida catching Maryland in Deaths.
Since then it has blown by Maryland, Connecticut, Louisiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and counting non resident deaths which you have to go look for, has passed Illinois and will soon put them in the rear view as it closes in on Massachusetts. We're talking thousands of deaths here. I don't find that funny in the least.

 

[jlwhitney]

@jlwhitney what's so funny? There are no words for how Florida has handled things. Yeah cases may be dropping but deaths are rising and the percentage isn't going anywhere. I guess as long people are working that's all that matters

more your general attitude towards Florida. Actually yes the economy does matter. there are actually worst areas in the country but they don’t get nearly the news country because Florida is always bashed.

 

[Jrb1979]

more your general attitude towards Florida. Actually yes the economy does matter. there are actually worst areas in the country but they don’t get nearly the news country because Florida is always bashed.

What's my general attitude towards Florida? I have no words anymore and really have nothing to say. Yes other areas are worse but since this is a Florida centric thread the focus is on Florida.

 

[montreid]

more your general attitude towards Florida. Actually yes the economy does matter. there are actually worst areas in the country but they don’t get nearly the news country because Florida is always bashed.

Being a former Miami person and fellow colleagues on the front lines of Covid battle there, there are few places worse than Miami in size and scope. Drop by JMH if and ask the staff coming off shift if you doubt this.

 

[jlwhitney]

Being a former Miami person and fellow colleagues on the front lines of Covid battle there, there are few places worse than Miami in size and scope. Drop by JMH if and ask the staff coming off shift if you doubt this.

All of Florida is also not Miami, just like all of NY isn’t NYC.