Grand CAL. How much lower will the prices drop ???

[elenex]

Overpriced relative to other DVC. It is driven by scarcity at DLR with the price doubling in 3 years, it was overdue to crash back down to earth. Most other resorts have now unwound their pandemic ramp up.

If VDH floods the system and we start seeing resale contracts in a more reasonable window, like 150$, I'm not sure if VGC pricing can really stick. If VDH also has rooms bookable by SAP at 7 months that will devalue the entire resort as a whole.

Even the amortized cost boggles my mind, but somehow people justify it as a savings against the jaw dropping cash prices. I realize I am discussing this with a bunch of recent VGC converts.

I'd also start with the old timeshare adage that direct in general is always overpriced, so VDH is coming in overpriced as well.

I mean...

1) VGC is among the theming masterpieces in the DVC collection. It predates the Ikea error, but is as new or newer than what you could call its cousins in WL and AKV. It's like the theming of WL married the elegance of GF and they had a beautiful baby. Now if only they refurbed the damn rooms.

2) Not a single DVC property can beat it's location and proximity to a park, let alone to 2 parks. And speaking of theming, it literally blends into DTD as if it isn't even there. But it is. I forgot something in the room last trip as we arrived to DCA. I was back in the park in 8 minutes, round trip. I'm slow, what can i say.

3) California costs more than Florida. It isn't even close. I'm from the east coast and moved out here 2 years ago. You all have no clue. People in my profession in Florida make about 1/3 of what i do. And work much harder. But I'm not much better off because a fixer upper starts in the 7 figures out here, gas is $5/gallon, and I recently somehow spent $8 on a half gallon of organic milk.

4) I watched world of color 6 times last visit. From my balcony. The whole show, music and projections and all. Go do that anywhere else, VDH included.

5) Again, 1 and 2. That's enough on its own.

 

[Yankee626]

You can't buy VDH resale either, direct points at VDH are fully unrestricted and likely will be cheaper to buy than VGC resale is today. That's a more interesting conundrum.


If you are asking what will be worth more in 10 years, VDH resale or VGC resale? Yes, much more likely the later. Whether it will be way below the delta remains to be seen. I do think VDH resale will hold onto more of its value than the average WDW resort. And if it doesn't that sort of erodes half of VGC's allure (being the only current accessibility to an entire resort).

I'm just saying that I think a VGC resale is a better buy than a Direct VDH .

 

[Yankee626]

I mean...

1) VGC is among the theming masterpieces in the DVC collection. It predates the Ikea error, but is as new or newer than what you could call its cousins in WL and AKV. It's like the theming of WL married the elegance of GF and they had a beautiful baby. Now if only they refurbed the damn rooms.

2) Not a single DVC property can beat it's location and proximity to a park, let alone to 2 parks. And speaking of theming, it literally blends into DTD as if it isn't even there. But it is. I forgot something in the room last trip as we arrived to DCA. I was back in the park in 8 minutes, round trip. I'm slow, what can i say.

3) California costs more than Florida. It isn't even close. I'm from the east coast and moved out here 2 years ago. You all have no clue. People in my profession in Florida make about 1/3 of what i do. And work much harder. But I'm not much better off because a fixer upper starts in the 7 figures out here, gas is $5/gallon, and I recently somehow spent $8 on a half gallon of organic milk.

4) I watched world of color 6 times last visit. From my balcony. The whole show, music and projections and all. Go do that anywhere else, VDH included.

5) Again, 1 and 2. That's enough on its own.

Not to mention the 13% state income tax rate.

 

[ClaraOswald]

Is VGC overpriced? I mean...I feel like there isn't a real answer for that because there are way too many factors and it's all relative. Yes, if you are just comparing it to the WDW villas...it would be considered overpriced. But you honestly can't compare the DVC resorts in Florida to the ones in California. If Disneyland suddenly had 10+ DVC options then we could compare. But since there are only 2....it's just a completely different ball game.

However, even then...VGC would still be top tier on location, when compared to WDW resorts.

I suspect that VDH will be priced lower than VGC....but not significantly lower, at least compared to VGC resale prices. Direct, if it were for sale, I think VGC would be around $315 a point. So resale VGC under $250pp doesn't seem that crazy, especially since it's good until 2060. I could see it dropping closer to the $200pp range in the coming years...depending upon what happens with VDH sales.

Of course, my opinion is only based on my limited knowledge on DVC. And I'm someone who is in the process of getting a resale VGC contract so it is what it is.

I just know that as someone who prefers the theme/vibe/location of the Grand Californian - if my choices are basically getting VGC now for $235pp OR waiting a year or two and possibly getting it for $200pp....it's not really worth the savings, to me, to wait for something that may or may not happen. Especially if in the meantime I would be spending thousands to rent points to stay there. We originally were going to wait but after doing the math, it really didn't make sense. Unless we KNEW the price was going to drop to much, much lower, like $150pp and I just don't know if I see that in the next year or two.

 

[Sunnyore]

That is interesting that a lot of you guys like to separate West coast from East coast but for someone like me that lives local to Disneyland, I really want points that I can use at wdw as well. At $320/pp price, I would have a hard time using it anywhere else but VGC. Even at resale price of $235/pp that’s still even higher than pretty much all of wdw so once again it would be purely just for VGC. $217 for unrestricted points just seems much more reasonable and more financial sense for me as someone who may use the points at WDW. I also like Riviera enough to want to stay there again and of course I want to be able to stay at VDH. I will definitely try to jump in for VGC if it drops down to $200 though just because it’s so hard to reserve there at 7 months. But if it’s a bit easier to book once VDH opens then I won’t really need dedicated points to VGC after all. I guess most renters are resale owners though so there might not be much of a shift. I’m just waiting to see what happens fairly soon.

 

[BrianLo]

Are you a WDW based person?

No, actually! West coast Canadian. Just low key bitter that I decided VGC was the correct resort for me in 2019 on a DVC research blitz, without intent to purchase until 2021.

 

[BrianLo]

I mean...

1) VGC is among the theming masterpieces in the DVC collection. It predates the Ikea error, but is as new or newer than what you could call its cousins in WL and AKV. It's like the theming of WL married the elegance of GF and they had a beautiful baby. Now if only they refurbed the damn rooms.

2) Not a single DVC property can beat it's location and proximity to a park, let alone to 2 parks. And speaking of theming, it literally blends into DTD as if it isn't even there. But it is. I forgot something in the room last trip as we arrived to DCA. I was back in the park in 8 minutes, round trip. I'm slow, what can i say.

3) California costs more than Florida. It isn't even close. I'm from the east coast and moved out here 2 years ago. You all have no clue. People in my profession in Florida make about 1/3 of what i do. And work much harder. But I'm not much better off because a fixer upper starts in the 7 figures out here, gas is $5/gallon, and I recently somehow spent $8 on a half gallon of organic milk.

4) I watched world of color 6 times last visit. From my balcony. The whole show, music and projections and all. Go do that anywhere else, VDH included.

5) Again, 1 and 2. That's enough on its own.

All of which easily justifies a premium. Not arguing that at all.

A 40-50% premium over VGF though? Like I said people lost their heads at 300/pp. Nothing magical justified the resort overnight doubling its value 10 years into the contract. Unfortunately sellers have a sticky memory.

 

[AstroBlasters]

For me personally, I would not buy WDW DVC because we have no desire to travel to FL on a regular basis. However, I can look at a cash flow analysis of what people are willing to pay to stay at a WDW hotel (at a discounted each rate) and make a projection of what a fair price of a DVC contract is based on purely renting the points out.

My upcoming 6-night Grand Cal hotel cash stay will cost $5039 for a Woodland-Courtyard view at a discounted Magic Key rate.

The same dates for a studio would cost 168 points. At a rental rate of $23pp that is $3864.

A 1BD is 336 points. At a rental rate of $23pp that is $7,728.

A 2BD is 456 points. At a rental rate of $23pp that is $10,488.

If I buy VGC @ $235 then my amortized point cost with dues is $14.82pp. A studio would be $2490. A 1BD would be $4980. A 2BD would be $6758.

The cost drops dramatically if I assume that I sell the contract in the future. I also think that the TVM is a straw argument because most don’t assume withdrawals from the portfolio to pay for the delta in lodging costs. So, no need to make things more complicated.

That leads me back to conclusion that it is very expensive, but I do not feel it is overpriced if your baseline is that your family wants to stay at the Grand Cal every year.

 

[BrianLo]

That leads me back to conclusion that it is very expensive, but I do not feel it is overpriced if your baseline is that your family wants to stay at the Grand Cal every year.

I do see what you mean, I think my base personal belief is that cash prices have become overpriced. That's probably my fundamental disagreement. It's only a 'deal' if you would justify paying the cash price to begin with, which comes down to the funny DVC math. 644 USD a night for a studio is something I still qualify as overpriced and would not be something I would personally willingly pay. Not helped by horrendous CAD exchange rates.

However, being able to resell VGC in 10-15 years certainly could bring that valuation down to earth... assuming resale sticks of course.

Hotel rates in general across the US have really spiralled out of control.

On the flip side I'd argue Aulani is likely underpriced. It's an excellent resort and it's not really possible to stay anywhere in Hawaii oceanside for a reasonable price these days.

 

[ClaraOswald]

We will likely use our VGC points to stay at WDW in 2025. While some see that as a waste of money, I do not. Now...if we decide we want to go back to WDW more often, then I would probably consider getting some cheaper SAP to use over there. But not unless we were planning to go often enough that banking/borrowing on a small contract (50 pts) would make sense for the timeline of our trips.

I think it's really such a personal choice and we all see the relative value of our points in different ways, I imagine.

 

[AstroBlasters]

That is interesting that a lot of you guys like to separate West coast from East coast but for someone like me that lives local to Disneyland, I really want points that I can use at wdw as well. At $320/pp price, I would have a hard time using it anywhere else but VGC. Even at resale price of $235/pp that’s still even higher than pretty much all of wdw so once again it would be purely just for VGC. $217 for unrestricted points just seems much more reasonable and more financial sense for me as someone who may use the points at WDW. I also like Riviera enough to want to stay there again and of course I want to be able to stay at VDH. I will definitely try to jump in for VGC if it drops down to $200 though just because it’s so hard to reserve there at 7 months. But if it’s a bit easier to book once VDH opens then I won’t really need dedicated points to VGC after all. I guess most renters are resale owners though so there might not be much of a shift. I’m just waiting to see what happens fairly soon.

Why is VGC resale @ $235 only at VGC, but VDH direct @ $217 that much better for WDW?

The only difference is RIV, but you can rent your points out at $23pp and then rent RIV points at $18-$21pp if you really have to stay there.

For 200 points that’s a one time $3600 upfront hit, but you get to stay at the VGC resort with larger rooms, better location, more restaurants, and theme park/forest views for the next 36 years. Also, VGC resale it will hold its value better in resale because it still has access to all of the WDW resorts & Aulani.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I do see what you mean, I think my base personal belief is that cash prices have become overpriced. That's probably my fundamental disagreement. It's only a 'deal' if you would justify paying the cash price to begin with, which comes down to the funny DVC math. 644 USD a night for a studio is something I still qualify as overpriced and would not be something I would personally willingly pay. Not helped by horrendous CAD exchange rates.

However, being able to resell VGC in 10-15 years certainly could bring that valuation down to earth... assuming resale sticks of course.

Hotel rates in general across the US have really spiralled out of control.

On the flip side I'd argue Aulani is likely underpriced. It's an excellent resort and it's not really possible to stay anywhere in Hawaii oceanside for a reasonable price these days.

When I was trying to decide if we should buy DVC, I ran the numbers and compared it to if we'd be staying off-site for future trips for a set amount of years. And I compared it to if we were to rent points to stay onsite. (Obviously have to estimate a lot because we don't know what prices will be in the future.) I found that while we are likely paying more in the long run for our resale VGC over staying offsite at Park Vue, for example...it was worth it for being able to stay at our preferred place. And the price compared to renting wasn't too far off, especially if we sell our contract around the 15 year mark or so. Once I did that, it was kind of a no-brainer for me. (Of course, if we needed to get a loan or pull money from investments....it would NOT have been a good choice for us.)

 

[AstroBlasters]

I do see what you mean, I think my base personal belief is that cash prices have become overpriced. That's probably my fundamental disagreement. It's only a 'deal' if you would justify paying the cash price to begin with, which comes down to the funny DVC math. 644 USD a night for a studio is something I still qualify as overpriced and would not be something I would personally willingly pay. Not helped by horrendous CAD exchange rates.

However, being able to resell VGC in 10-15 years certainly could bring that valuation down to earth... assuming resale sticks of course.

Hotel rates in general across the US have really spiralled out of control.

On the flip side I'd argue Aulani is likely underpriced. It's an excellent resort and it's not really possible to stay anywhere in Hawaii oceanside for a reasonable price these days.

I am 100% in agreement with you about this.

Aulani at $90-$100pp, if you can get reasonable west coast flights, is an amazing deal.

Also, I agree with your sentiment about Disney owned Disneyland hotel costs, I just came to the conclusion that there are enough people who will only go once or twice in their life with their kids that seem to be willing to pay it. I had 2 coworkers take their kids to DLand last year for the first time and they both stayed at the Grand Californian. Then I hear from my wife “why does everyone else get to stay at the Grand Californian, but you won’t let us”….

I also empathize on the CAN exchange rate, but we loved it when we stayed at the Empress last year!

 

[BrianLo]

Why is VGC resale @ $235 only at VGC, but VDH direct @ $217 that much better for WDW?

The only difference is RIV, but you can rent your points out at $23pp and then rent RIV points at $18-$21pp if you really have to stay there.

For 200 points that’s a one time $3600 upfront hit, but you get to stay at the VGC resort with larger rooms, better location, more restaurants, and theme park/forest views for the next 36 years. Also, VGC resale it will hold its value better in resale because it still has access to all of the WDW resorts & Aulani.

Two slight counter arguments for myself - and why I'm continually talking out of both ends.

VDH will have incentives OR a small contract at VGC can not be obtained for 235$ so the delta (I'm guessing) is probably more like 35$. Not amazing by any means, but a bit more than implied.

I really expect those duo studios to come in quite a bit cheaper points wise than VGC. If I can amortize rates of 199$ US or less to stay on property, even in a cruise ship type room, I CAN personally justify that. I also really enjoy attending D23, which Disney seems to more recently like shoving into September. Every hotel in Anaheim is running way above that threshold whereas it's cheap season for DVC.


But our discussion has led me back to maybe I should be more seriously watching Aulani resale. Ironically that will be my 'welcome home' stay - using a bunch of WDW points this Fall.

 

[BrianLo]

I also empathize on the CAN exchange rate, but we loved it when we stayed at the Empress last year!

Oh I was likely working in Victoria then, retroactive hello!

I do admit I'm living in an absolute hotel cost fantasy land as I can still book government provincial rates in Canada. I write this from my slope side view room in Rossland BC, staying in the Josie (an AC Collection) ski hotel for 179 CAD a night. Including restaurant breakfast and ski/car valet. It's not Grand Cal... but it's not bad.

Anywas, Off to the slopes!

 

[nalabear]

Don't forget to amortize VGC to 2060 vs 50 years for VDH for 2073 13 years difference.

Unless VGC drops to something like 190$; VDH is a smaller/further product to VGC. The only way VDH will become a more desirable is IF Disney Forward happens AND there's back entrance to it.

 

[Sunnyore]

Why is VGC resale @ $235 only at VGC, but VDH direct @ $217 that much better for WDW?

The only difference is RIV, but you can rent your points out at $23pp and then rent RIV points at $18-$21pp if you really have to stay there.

For 200 points that’s a one time $3600 upfront hit, but you get to stay at the VGC resort with larger rooms, better location, more restaurants, and theme park/forest views for the next 36 years. Also, VGC resale it will hold its value better in resale because it still has access to all of the WDW resorts & Aulani.

I don’t love the renting game. I did it for the first time renting out my BCV points and it was more tedious than I anticipated. Same with I don’t think I want to rent from others. I do like having that option though if I can’t use up all my points for the year though down the line. I don’t factor in resale value in either as I’m only going to get a small point contract at VDH. Anyone can go to whichever restaurants when the distance is a 5 minute walk. So really the value for me is having unrestricted points for whatever else is coming up in the future. Also the duo rooms speak to me as sometimes I just need a place to sleep. Buying more resale points means I still won’t have access to them. I’ll see how I feel when I stay at VGC next month. Once I had a room on the ground floor and my view was of the walkway and the fence to DCA so I sure didn’t feel it was anything special. The times I was high enough for theme park view were definitely nicer, but I know it’s not guaranteed every visit.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I don’t love the renting game. I did it for the first time renting out my BCV points and it was more tedious than I anticipated. Same with I don’t think I want to rent from others. I do like having that option though if I can’t use up all my points for the year though down the line. I don’t factor in resale value in either as I’m only going to get a small point contract at VDH. Anyone can go to whichever restaurants when the distance is a 5 minute walk. So really the value for me is having unrestricted points for whatever else is coming up in the future. Also the duo rooms speak to me as sometimes I just need a place to sleep. Buying more resale points means I still won’t have access to them. I’ll see how I feel when I stay at VGC next month. Once I had a room on the ground floor and my view was of the walkway and the fence to DCA so I sure didn’t feel it was anything special. The times I was high enough for theme park view were definitely nicer, but I know it’s not guaranteed every visit.

Can I ask why renting out points seemed tedious? We will have some points we can't use on our contract and I was thinking we'll want to rent them out. I was just going to go through a site like https://dvcrentalstore.com/ because it didn't sound too awful.

 

[Sunnyore]

Can I ask why renting out points seemed tedious? We will have some points we can't use on our contract and I was thinking we'll want to rent them out. I was just going to go through a site like https://dvcrentalstore.com/ because it didn't sound too awful.

I did it on my own because the rental sites at least for my BCV was offering $18/pp only. Also for sure there will be a 1099 and tax complications involved. It was my first time and like you I had points I knew I wasn’t going to use and by the time the points were loaded I had about 2 months left of my 8-11mos window. I went ahead and booked confirmed reservations because like you with VGC at 7mos and lower the deluxe studios are likely all gone. I learned quickly most renters aren’t super savvy about advanced planning so they are all looking more at the 1-4 month range. I got a couple people interested but then communication would drop. Finally saw someone posting asking for BCV in my time frame and sold the reservation to them after canceling my confirmed reservations. All of this took several weeks for me so I thought it’s a bit of an effort. You’re also competing with rental savvy ppl who is snatching up all the holidays, rundisneys days. And I recall recently on the renter site that some of their rentals sat for months with no takers. VGC will be easier for you though. BCV is considered a high value rental too but there are also tons of DVCs at wdw. Even with VDH there’s still just 2 at DLR.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I don’t love the renting game. I did it for the first time renting out my BCV points and it was more tedious than I anticipated. Same with I don’t think I want to rent from others. I do like having that option though if I can’t use up all my points for the year though down the line. I don’t factor in resale value in either as I’m only going to get a small point contract at VDH. Anyone can go to whichever restaurants when the distance is a 5 minute walk. So really the value for me is having unrestricted points for whatever else is coming up in the future. Also the duo rooms speak to me as sometimes I just need a place to sleep. Buying more resale points means I still won’t have access to them. I’ll see how I feel when I stay at VGC next month. Once I had a room on the ground floor and my view was of the walkway and the fence to DCA so I sure didn’t feel it was anything special. The times I was high enough for theme park view were definitely nicer, but I know it’s not guaranteed every visit.

If you are happy with a duo room and only want a small contract then I believe you are correct that VDH would be a better fit.

My guess is that those will be very difficult to book.

Also, I feel like you blew past the dining comparison: A full blown day spa (not dining, but I want a massage half way through my trip), Napa Rose, Craftsman Grill, Storytellers Cafe, and Hearthstone Lounge to Tangaroa Terrace, my beloved Trader Sam’s, and Goofy’s Kitchen…

I do hope they bring in something great where Steakhouse 55 was and have a nice quick service and bar in the pool area. However, in the time it takes you to get to Tortilla Joes I could be at Carthay Circle.