Getting harder to get a reservation

[flytimefl]

Used to be lots available, but now it's getting harder and harder to get a reservation for WDW. We are local and often make spur of the moment plans. Is DVC oversold?

 

[BillPA]

No, just 96-98% sold, DVC is not for those that can't plan ahead, more than 7 months is best, with hit or miss after that.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

DVC is points based. Points are sold based on filling 95-98% of rooms 365 days a year.

However, this doesn't account for several demand factors:

• Some rooms/resorts are more popular than others. Points are sold based on every unit, but studios, especially, are the most popular booking. All points can't book studios.
• Some seasons are more popular than others. Fall Frenzy is what it is.

This cannot be addressed in the points already sold, and any means to address this other than massive point reallocation would probably require fixed weeks or some other restriction on when points could be used.

 

[chalee94]

Imagine DVC was 1 villa sold to 12 owners for 1 month per year each.

All of the 12 owners think Feb is too cold and August is too hot. Four of the 12 think December is the absolute best time to go to wdw...but 3 of those will necessarily be disappointed. Doesn't mean our 1 villa DVC is oversold.

There has always been a competitive element to owning any points based timeshare. You might have avoided the negative outcomes before, but that was luck. Owners who might have let their pts expire unused in the past can now use a broker like David to get cash with very little effort. SSR has taught owners of near-park resorts to book early to make sure that they get what they want.

I have always advised potential buyers that DVC works best for planners. I would not expect things to get easier... last minute options will still be available but moreso for things like SSR 1BRs in low season (Feb non-holiday weeks) and winter nights at HHI and VB...

 

[cvjw]

DVC is not oversold, it is just fully sold. Unfortunately, more DVC members like to visit between September and January then the rest of the year. Another part of the problem is owners buying a small amount of points to stay in a studio, but there are only so many studios while the Poly bungalows sit empty.

You have to be able to plan ahead, or be lucky and catch a cancellation. I have had great luck stalking the resort availability tool and finding cancellations at only weeks out before a trip.

 

[papertraveller]

I just walked by the bungalows for the first time yesterday. Are they empty?

 

[Fangorn]

They're not empty. Even the Poly Bungalows and the Copper Creek Cabins have only very sporadic 1 night only availability from Oct 1 through the first week of January. There is at least one Bungalow available for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, though.

Steve

 

[ziravan]

Imagine DVC was 1 villa sold to 12 owners for 1 month per year each.

All of the 12 owners think Feb is too cold and August is too hot. Four of the 12 think December is the absolute best time to go to wdw...but 3 of those will necessarily be disappointed. Doesn't mean our 1 villa DVC is oversold.

There has always been a competitive element to owning any points based timeshare. You might have avoided the negative outcomes before, but that was luck. Owners who might have let their pts expire unused in the past can now use a broker like David to get cash with very little effort. SSR has taught owners of near-park resorts to book early to make sure that they get what they want.

I have always advised potential buyers that DVC works best for planners. I would not expect things to get easier... last minute options will still be available but moreso for things like SSR 1BRs in low season (Feb non-holiday weeks) and winter nights at HHI and VB...

To add to this analogy, before the points system, all the months would have been sold individually and that means Dec would be worth far more than Feb/Aug.

The points based system moves the cost for higher demand times from monetary to planning.

You don't need to pay more for the higher demand times, but you'll need to plan more. In fact, part of the demand drive for DVC is for cheaper seasons.

 

[disneynutz]

Renting has increased in popularity with several brokers now available. In addition to reasons in the above posts, some owners would just let their points expire and not book rooms. Now that doesn't seem to happen and the rooms are fully booked.

Bill

 

[Dean]

Used to be lots available, but now it's getting harder and harder to get a reservation for WDW. We are local and often make spur of the moment plans. Is DVC oversold?

No, it' just functioning more as it's supposed to.

 

[ToddyLu]

If people here would just stop posting advice here on the DIS, the market would settle down and I could get the value studios I want for May and December....geez. But oohh, no people like me come to the net to learn the in and outs of ownership and educate themselves....

 

[mousehockey37]

Renting has increased in popularity with several brokers now available. In addition to reasons in the above posts, some owners would just let their points expire and not book rooms. Now that doesn't seem to happen and the rooms are fully booked.

Bill

This. The rental market is a big thing. The rental sites are basically begging for owners points so that they can try and meet demand. Renting used to be a secret, until social media showed up to the party.

 

[Wakey]

It' also a self fulfilling prophecy, fuelled by knowledge and the internet.
Wakey in the UK couldn't get his studio at BWV last October, because Barbara in Ohio booked it right on 11 months as advised on disboards. Barbara also advised a few people on Facebook groups to do this so they too have now booked earlier.
Wakey is disappointed, having normally left it until 4 months out.. is it oversold? Are Disney selling DVC rooms off cash? Grrrr. Wakey takes to Facebook DVC group to vent his spleen, only to be shot down in flames, with people saying you must book 8am 11 months out for food and wine. Wakey then becomes part of the problem and so on. I call it early booking creep.
I think it's slowed up a bit now.
Also some resorts unbalanced it- SSR and OKW certainly do, as does Hawaii. However, Poly and CC probably added a bit of balance back in, as will Riviera I believe. Bay Lake 2 would do the same.
Another problem though is to make more cash, DVD rapidly increased points per night requirements. This has had the potential effect of pushing new owners to cheaper properties per night. Boardwalk Standard particularly affected by this. However may be some counter effect (I do see people saying this) that even though they have Poly points etc, they stay SSR and OKW as it' cheaper and tgey get more nights. So jury is out on that one.

 

[Dean]

It' also a self fulfilling prophecy, fuelled by knowledge and the internet.
Wakey in the UK couldn't get his studio at BWV last October, because Barbara in Ohio booked it right on 11 months as advised on disboards. Barbara also advised a few people on Facebook groups to do this so they too have now booked earlier.
Wakey is disappointed, having normally left it until 4 months out.. is it oversold? Are Disney selling DVC rooms off cash? Grrrr. Wakey takes to Facebook DVC group to vent his spleen, only to be shot down in flames, with people saying you must book 8am 11 months out for food and wine. Wakey then becomes part of the problem and so on. I call it early booking creep.
I think it's slowed up a bit now.
Also some resorts unbalanced it- SSR and OKW certainly do, as does Hawaii. However, Poly and CC probably added a bit of balance back in, as will Riviera I believe. Bay Lake 2 would do the same.
Another problem though is to make more cash, DVD rapidly increased points per night requirements. This has had the potential effect of pushing new owners to cheaper properties per night. Boardwalk Standard particularly affected by this. However may be some counter effect (I do see people saying this) that even though they have Poly points etc, they stay SSR and OKW as it' cheaper and tgey get more nights. So jury is out on that one.

This is how timeshares are supposed to work, at least those that are floating in some way, whether it be weeks in seasons or points. With or without a home resort priority, anyone in a floating system is in direct competition for reservations with other owners. It's literally us against them in a sense. As for how the demand affects availability at 7 months out, I have a slightly different take. If a high demand resort is added to the system like VGF, it really doesn't help 7 month availability because a larger % of owners who buy there will stay there (and should) and many of the rest that own something else that is high demand will only give up their reservation if they can get the other high demand option. I've estimated that looking at points available and looking at 7 months out comparing SSR to VGF it's about 1-2 to 100. The would mean you'd have to add thousands of villas at a very high demand option to make much headway for 7 month availability. The CBR resort will be interesting. My opinion is it's likely to be midway, not high end but not as low as SSR in terms of demand. But I also don't see Poly as a high demand option, more average at WDW, above SSR/OKW/AKV but below the rest though we won't know for sure until it sells out and the owners there get 1-2 trips under their belt.

 

[eeyorefanuk]

Just curious are aulani and vero beach a 11 month if want to get it type of resort

 

[holden]

Just curious are aulani and vero beach a 11 month if want to get it type of resort

Depends on the time of year you go and the type of room you are looking for.

 

[OKWNutt]

Used to be lots available, but now it's getting harder and harder to get a reservation for WDW. We are local and often make spur of the moment plans. Is DVC oversold?

As member for several years I am finding the opposite to be true. I am about to spend a week in a BCV studio during the Food & Wine Festival which I booked at 7 months out. A few years ago that was considered impossible.

 

[jennib5426]

We book 1bd now instead of studio's because our family has grown since I bought 10 years ago.
It seems a 1bd is slightly easier to get and has more selection at 7 months in most properties, except BCV & BWV during food & wine.

 

[jennypenny]

Does anyone know how many owners are resale owners now? I would think the limitations on trading out points, especially for DCL, might be increasing the number of points that get 'spent' at WDW.

 

[chalee94]

Does anyone know how many owners are resale owners now? I would think the limitations on trading out points, especially for DCL, might be increasing the number of points that get 'spent' at WDW.

That's not how it works.

Even when (for the sake of argument) more pts were spent on cruises, those pts were still used by DVC to book villas at wdw (in order to get cash by renting through CRO so they could pay the cruise division for the cruise).

Assuming it's true that more resale owners means fewer trades for cruises, that would only help explain why we get fewer questions about "why are villas available on disney.com for cash but I can't book anything on pts."