Resort prices once 2042 resorts expire give me your guesstimates (no not another 2042 resort debate)

[maui22]

Where do you think Disney hotel prices will be? Contemporary 1971 $29/night. In 2042, will it be $1000/night, maybe $2000/night depending on season? I have no clue what Disney hotel rates are anymore after 16 years of DVC.

• OKW 1991 direct price of $51. Isn't the resale price higher today?
• VWL/BRV, BWV, BCV are all worth more resale today than their initial prices.
• BLT direct June 2009 was $120 before incentives. First time buying direct incentives made it $91-$96 depending on points purchased. Today, resale is higher than that.
• VGF and GCV are both worth more today in resale than what they were initially sold for.
• I think PVB direct was around $160 or 165/pt initially. Can't recall incentive pricing. Fairly close to that today.

Disney prices rise faster than inflation.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

In my opinion, the ONLY reason that many many people are willing to buy Direct from Disney, is because DVC in general tends to hold its value, and this 'permanency' of value applies to both Direct and Retail purchases. But, frankly, many people will already skip the Direct purchases and go with the RESALE market, because they just don't see the Direct Purchases to be worth the extra cost.

I think you might be over estimating how many people own resale based on your own personal experience. You’ve been on these boards for for a while too, so it’s made you think so many current and prospective owners are aware of resale and what that entails, but the reality is DVC sells 100K+ points a month and has been a very long time. More often selling even more than that. The fact that VB/HH/OKW/SSR continue to sell thousands of direct points each month tells you that plenty of people have no idea about the resale market. There are ebbs and flows in sales like everything else but they have had pretty consistent sales for decades and it didn’t get particularly worse after the first set of restrictions in 2012 nor in 2019.

Keeping the pricing of resale inflated would also have a negative effect on resale after time. If it went as you’ve said, and the price of resale was high/closer to direct pricing, then fewer people would buy resale. So resale contracts would sit on the market for longer likely over saturating the market, and what happens when there’s more supply than demand? It would result in people lowering the price of their resale contracts anyway.

 

[intamin]

I think the 8 year thing is one of those things like "a duck's quack does not echo" - a "snapple fact" with no truth behind it.

With many other timeshare systems, people basically have to stop paying maintenance fees and let the developer repossess the points because nobody wants the resale contract. The fact is, Disney Vacation Club will always have some resale value simply because of the location. No other timeshare system operates inside the Disney bubble.

Pretty sure the whole 8 year thing applies only to people who HAVE sold their contract. There is no way for people to know how long owners who haven't sold their contracts have been holding theirs for and I imagine the actual average amount of time people have been holding their contracts is actually much longer.

 

[tx911]

I think you might be over estimating how many people own resale based on your own personal experience. You’ve been on these boards for for a while too, so it’s made you think so many current and prospective owners are aware of resale and what that entails, but the reality is DVC sells 100K+ points a month and has been a very long time. More often selling even more than that. The fact that VB/HH/OKW/SSR continue to sell thousands of direct points each month tells you that plenty of people have no idea about the resale market. There are ebbs and flows in sales like everything else but they have had pretty consistent sales for decades and it didn’t get particularly worse after the first set of restrictions in 2012 nor in 2019.

Keeping the pricing of resale inflated would also have a negative effect on resale after time. If it went as you’ve said, and the price of resale was high/closer to direct pricing, then fewer people would buy resale. So resale contracts would sit on the market for longer likely over saturating the market, and what happens when there’s more supply than demand? It would result in people lowering the price of their resale contracts anyway.

I prefer and do buy direct if at all possible.

I fully understand it's not the bargain that resale is, but I see resale points getting more and more constrained as time goes on, and fairly dramatically so in 2042.

I like points that are fluid and can be used anywhere, especially given that the dues are the same regardless and represent the lion's share of the overall cost.

I want to leave some or all of my points to my kids some day too, and don't want to leave them restricted (by then very restricted) resale points.

So direct it is for me. Seeing the points in the account immediately and not having to wait 2-3 months is also nice.

 

[Sandisw]

Pretty sure the whole 8 year thing applies only to people who HAVE sold their contract. There is no way for people to know how long owners who haven't sold their contracts have been holding theirs for and I imagine the actual average amount of time people have been holding their contracts is actually much longer.

This is where the 7 to 10 years average has come from. It’s only based on those who have sold.

So, if only 2% of contracts …making this up here…sell every year, that of that small subset the average length is 7 to 10 years

But, it’s not considering that 98% who don’t. And, there are people like me who has sold plenty of contract but bought others. So, while I was a seller, I never left being a DVC owner

 

[MicheyMouse]

Values will drop considerably inside of 10 years because financing will become more limited. You won’t get a 10 year loan on a property with say 7 or 8 years left on it.

 

[Frederic Civish]

Values will drop considerably inside of 10 years because financing will become more limited. You won’t get a 10 year loan on a property with say 7 or 8 years left on it.

Excellent point. I too have been thinking that we would start to see the price of those resorts fall off, once we reach around 10 years (or a bit more), remaining.

 

[PlutoNotPlanet]

AKV 50
BLT 67
CCV 80
SSR 40
PVB and VGF ~100
I will guess above with the current currency. But inflation would play a big role after 16 years. So, my final answer would be $5-10 lower than the current price
AKV 90
BLT 115
CCV 120
SSR 70
PVB and VGF 130

 

[VGCgroupie]

AKV 50
BLT 67
CCV 80
SSR 40
PVB and VGF ~100
I will guess above with the current currency. But inflation would play a big role after 16 years. So, my final answer would be $5-10 lower than the current price
AKV 90
BLT 115
CCV 120
SSR 70
PVB and VGF 130

Thank you for this. Really helps. I guess I am kind of looking for in current currency terms.