Gallup Poll Shocker: 9 point swing

[JoeThaNo1Stunna]

In the only major poll that showed Kerry with a lead, GWB has now turned a 1 point deficit into an 8 point lead.

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Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

 

[SoonerKate]

It might be better to wait until after the election, when Gallup reveals their crosstabs. Their polling methods have been questioned lately; they interview many more Republicans than Democrats, which can easily skew their polls. Plus, Joe, you know that it's not necessarily one poll that makes a difference, but the overall trends. Anyone can find a poll that tells them what they want to hear or something close to it.

Plus, there's also the chance that the polls this time around don't mean a thing -- likely voters are considered those who are not only registered, but who voted in the last presidential election. There are massive amounts of new voters on the rolls, and they're not being polled at all. We know how voters will generally vote by type -- but what we don't know is how the balance of turnout among groups will reflect the models of the poll companies.

Are the swings interesting? Sure. Are they the damning evidence of a death knell for Kerry you'd probably like them to be, judging from your other posts? No, not really.

 

[LisaZoe]

Well said, SoonerKate.

 

[cati]

xx

 

[JoeThaNo1Stunna]

Originally posted by SoonerKate
It might be better to wait until after the election, when Gallup reveals their crosstabs. Their polling methods have been questioned lately; they interview many more Republicans than Democrats, which can easily skew their polls. Plus, Joe, you know that it's not necessarily one poll that makes a difference, but the overall trends. Anyone can find a poll that tells them what they want to hear or something close to it.

Plus, there's also the chance that the polls this time around don't mean a thing -- likely voters are considered those who are not only registered, but who voted in the last presidential election. There are massive amounts of new voters on the rolls, and they're not being polled at all. We know how voters will generally vote by type -- but what we don't know is how the balance of turnout among groups will reflect the models of the poll companies.

Are the swings interesting? Sure. Are they the damning evidence of a death knell for Kerry you'd probably like them to be, judging from your other posts? No, not really.

You raise some interesting points, but the fact is, is that Gallup was the only major poll that had Kerry in the lead. For them to go from being the only poll showing Kerry as the leader to giving Bush the largest lead definetly solidies the trend seen in other polls such as Zogby (Bush from -4, to +4) or Rasmussen where he picked up points following the final debate. The general trend is toward Bush.

 

[orvilleair]

I've seen the other polls have Bush ahead by a narrower margin (Newsweek for one).

Still don't know the "definitive" poll. Talk radio used to use Zogby's poll four years ago, but it isn't mentioned as much as it used to be.

 

[Rokkitsci]

Originally posted by JoeThaNo1Stunna
You raise some interesting points, but the fact is, is that Gallup was the only major poll that had Kerry in the lead. For them to go from being the only poll showing Kerry as the leader to giving Bush the largest lead definetly solidies the trend seen in other polls such as Zogby (Bush from -4, to +4) or Rasmussen where he picked up points following the final debate. The general trend is toward Bush.

I am confused about the poll numbers. I see that Bush is narrowly leading, whereas he was trailing a while back.

But I also look at the electoral map that is supposed to keep up with the current poll data. That shows Kerry to be in the lead now, whereas it used to show Bush was leading in projectled electoral count.

It appears backwards to me - perhaps the electoral projection has not caught up with the latest polls.

I don't really put any stock in polls anyway - but it is hard to avoid them since the media thinks that the polls are the story rather than the issues.

I wish the polls would just go away - they are useful for people who are trying to market something - but I don't like to think of electing presidents as "marketing."

I would rather that elections be decided by people who know the issues and not be concerned with the 'popularity' aspects of the person.

 

[Rokkitsci]

Originally posted by orvilleair
I've seen the other polls have Bush ahead by a narrower margin (Newsweek for one).

Still don't know the "definitive" poll. Talk radio used to use Zogby's poll four years ago, but it isn't mentioned as much as it used to be.

I agree - I remember when Zogby was touted as "the" poll to rely on.

As I recall, it had to do with the way Zogby vetted his polling. He appeared to have a way of identifying those who would actually go vote, rather than letting opinions from those who probably would not vote affect his results.

With the massive "get out the vote" campaigns being waged by both sides, he may be having a harder time this election in actually identifying the probable voters.

There will be unprecedented voter fraud this time - no polling can hope to accurately guage that anyway. The democrats will be bussing in nursing home invalids, homeless vagrants, street wanderers, and scores of multiple-voting operatives to cast 'provisional ballots' in dozens of precincts. It will be huge.

Normally, it is not significant enough to influence the election, but with the even divide we now have, the illegal vote may well be the deciding factor.