FYI: More Cuts Coming

Any article can be filled with opinion and conjecture, but there are several indisputable facts here:
  1. Disney's latest earnings report showed record breaking overall corporate profits.
  2. Theme park profits were up 22%.
  3. It is bad business to cut services in the wake of margin expansion.
Now here's my subjective opinions: Having not been to the parks in about 5 years, we recently returned. We thought it was obvious how much everything has slipped. My wife came running out of one of the bathrooms saying how filthy it was. We both agreed that the parks were looking more dirty than in the past, and that the entire place was in need of attention. It is sad for us since our first vacation as a couple was to WDW, some 30 years ago.
 
You forgot one other fact:
4. Disney stock is down $25 (~20%) from its highs despite record profits.​

We noticed the bathrooms specifically this past trip as well. I actually saw folks checking on the bathrooms, and walking away from dirty bathrooms with their carts. Which is a whole other thread/discussion.
 
As we all agree, it would be astronomically stupid for a multi-billion dollar company to take a profitable division that is public facing, cut its funding by 20% (just cut, flat out, no redistribution), pocket a handful of coins (Millions in labor savings is a handful in Disney profit speak). So, lines get longer, rides become run down, magic fades, and reliable customers leave - all for a small bump in earnings. That doesn't even make logical sense.
Therefore;
I conclude Disney is not run by a bunch of bumbling idiots bent on demoting the brand.

Let me ask you a question? After the success of Disney Animation's in the early 90s, would you have ever predicted that in 2005 Bob Iger would be justifying the acquisition of Pixar to a Bear Stearns meeting by saying,

"In fact, the light bulb went off for me back in September in Hong Kong. I was at the opening of Hong Kong Disneyland and standing with a few thousand other people watching the parade go by and I realized that there wasn’t a character in the parade that had come from a Disney animated film in the last ten years except for Pixar. And although it was relatively known to me that we had exploited these characters across multiple businesses and multiple countries over time, it really hit me hard that we had had ten years of real failure in many respects in the business that I believe was the most vital to us."

Over this period of self-admitted failure, Bob Iger was the President and COO of the Walt Disney Company for 5 of those years. The buck ultimately stopped with Michael Eisner, but as number 2 in the company, he had a responsibility as well. During that period, all the conventional wisdom stated that modern audiences were no longer interested in Princess Musicals and we can see by the slate of movies that went up at the time that they committed to this idea fully (Dinosaur, Atlantis, Lilo & Stitch featuring Elvis, Treasure Planet, Home on the Range, etc) . I hope now we can admit how short-sighted and a failure to accurately predict the desires of the marketplace that was. It is the success of a Princess Musical that has re-elevated Disney's position.

Second the Studio. Going back to Iger's light bulb moment. The studio's success is how much dependent on the creations from the last decade, and how much by either acquiring properties that have a 40+ year history of success (Star Wars and Marvel) or are re-interpretations of the same stories that were already produced over Disney's long history. Just this week Emily Blunt is the new Mary Poppins. Way to create new content there. The successes of those things isn't bad, but it can't be enough, otherwise you're the next CEO wondering what characters in this parade were created within the last decade.

But somehow Parks & Resorts have been immune?

The good thing about movies, is that you get near instantaneous feedback. The next one comes out 6 months, a year, two years later. You can really see when bad decisions go wrong. But a trip to WDW is a lifetime experience, or at least a "once as a kid, once as a parent" experience. Feedback is going to come much slower, and some stuff won't show up for a generation. Now, I wouldn't say bumbling idiots, but I think they are so blinded by Disney's own powerful Brand that they don't see the harm they are doing, or understand the ham that has already been done. Disney provides stellar service. Everyone knows this. But how can that possibly be, when it is increasingly staffed by young adults with no or limited prior experience in the jobs that they have been assigned, and receive very little training beyond the basics, which maybe account for 50% of their job, and they are turned over every 6-12 months? There are a lot less full-time positions in each location than there were 10 years ago, 20 years, 30 years ago. WDW has lost so much Institutional Knowledge that I believe Management believes still exists. And much of what remains are Boomers set to retire. If you believe Disney provides the same stellar service as they did a generation ago, some cutting can easily be absorbed without a noticeable affect. The problem is that all that "protection" they think exists, was eliminated a long, long time ago. And that's the good version! The bad version is that Management simply thinks that you can simply swap in the next warm body and expect them to perform at the high standards the name Disney implies. The guys that staffed the 1964-65 World's Fair talk about how they hired a great group, of motivated and intelligent boys and girls, kids that went on to be doctors, and judges, and trained them up so they knew their operation went smoothly. But now we're down to just about any warm body will do? I hope not.

All of these things happened to me, on my trip to Florida two weeks ago (I no longer say, I am visiting WDW, because we primarily go because friends want to, and my Mom had 15 years of service for Disney and that gives my Dad sign-ins). These would be unacceptable for any business. Let alone one with the reputation of Disney. How long will people pass them off as, "they must be exceptions." And not systemic operational failures. Like I said, my Mom worked for Disney for 15 years, WDW for 5, that provided significant insight into training, turnover, treatment of long time employees and how front line operations actually work and not the Brand speak about how things should be.

1. Being told after we had paid, "I'm sorry we don't have any Coke" during the start of the lunch rush (approx. 11:45) at a food service location with at least 2 visible fountains (not a cart with bottles that need stocking).

2. Hearing a CP swear into the microphone because she was expected to spiel before she was prepared, got flustered and let it out of her mouth before she even knew what she said.

3. Shopping at World of Disney and have the CM ring you up, without saying a single word, or making eye contact at 10:30 in the morning (so no full day of bad customers to blame it on)

4. Hearing about how my friend was at a Guest Service window for an hour, because they messed up her MDE account while trying to add her AP (they added it to her husband's profile which she manages)

In the Fast Company article about the implementation of My Disney Experience, Bob Iger concluded by saying, "This had better work." With that kind of attitude fresh in their minds, how forthcoming would you assume lower levels of management, who are going to protect their families first and foremost, and therefore their careers, are going to run up the chain with, "Hey Bob...so this isn't working like we thought it would." Bad data, leads to bad decisions and bad results. And I have very strong doubts, that the management with their plaid entourage, assistants to schedule meals, concierge rooms that have been inspected with a fine tooth comb, and pre-park opening visits and backdoors ...results in them seeing the same things that we and their front line staff sees. Unlike movies, which I presume they actually watch and can draw their own conclusions as to the quality of their product, their WDW is a lot different than ours.
 

Fault can be found in all kinds of places. I don't discount the issues at all. I posted several times during my last trip how frustrated I was with certain areas and experiences.

Obviously you have a lot of feedback/thoughts on Iger. I guess from my past experiences I look at a body of work. Particularly at a CEO or President level, whatever viewpoint you want, you can find evidence to support it.

On a side note, one of the key things I see wrong with Disney right now is engagement of staff. Whether that is wages, or hiring practices, or management leadership I certainly don't know. But the motivation, excitement, and dedication of the staff I came into contact with was much lower than I've ever seen. But culturally I would say that is true of almost everywhere I go now. Disney may be suffering from a cultural issue on top of their own internal ones.
 
Do you think the reduction in DHS and MK nighttime entertainment has to do with the addition of ROL in AK and the Star Wars fireworks in DHS? Perhaps they are expecting larger crowds in these spots, so reducing entertainment in others?
 
Budshark makes a good point.

The drastic cuts Disney is employing have nothing to do with Shanghai or any other theme parks. The cuts are coming because the stock price is down over 20% in just 3 months. It's kind of shocking since they have been a Wall Street darling for so many years. The stock price is down because their core business Industry is in flux.

There is presently a war going on between content providers (Disney), carriers (cable companies), and consumers. With all the new video streaming options, and all the new legal rulings siding with consumers, the future is uncertain. Just the other day, the Federal courts ruled to allow consumers to use third party set top boxes instead of the required cable boxes.

The real battle of this war is to keep things the way they are, where you pay for 300 channels to get the 10 you want to watch, or to change things and give consumers the option to choose what channels they pay for. There is not doubt that the change is coming soon. The part that is unknown is how it is going to affect the content providers like Disney (ESPN), and Time Warner (HBO).

Initially, analysts decided that it would be a good thing for Disney, as they would be able to command a premium price and reach a broader audience. Sentiment has recently started to change though. Analysts are beginning to question whether Disney would be better off or not. This is the reason for the recent sharp decline in their stock price, and probably the reason for the new waves of cuts coming at their theme parks.
 
I am not at all certain this is a safe conclusion. They may not be intentionally destroying the brand, but they make intentional actions which are indifferent to the brand, until the pain is so bad that they have no choice but to pony up and fix things. Exhibit A: Disney California Adventure.
DCA wasn't intentionally bad, and that was built during the Eisner years not Iger. It was just a flawed concept.
 
You forgot one other fact:
4. Disney stock is down $25 (~20%) from its highs despite record profits.​

We noticed the bathrooms specifically this past trip as well. I actually saw folks checking on the bathrooms, and walking away from dirty bathrooms with their carts. Which is a whole other thread/discussion.
That stock is down due to ESPN worries though.
 
Do you think the reduction in DHS and MK nighttime entertainment has to do with the addition of ROL in AK and the Star Wars fireworks in DHS? Perhaps they are expecting larger crowds in these spots, so reducing entertainment in others?
No, for as long as I know MSEP has run twice a night, before and after the fireworks. DHS doesn't run a 2nd fantasmic every night anyways it only does so during heavier crowds. Even with fireworks at DHS they still ran two fantasmic's during the summer (frozen fireworks).
 
The drastic cuts Disney is employing have nothing to do with Shanghai or any other theme parks. The cuts are coming because the stock price is down over 20% in just 3 months. It's kind of shocking since they have been a Wall Street darling for so many years. The stock price is down because their core business Industry is in flux.
I truly do not believe it is because of the stock price currently. What has helped their stock price not drip more is Star Wars.
 
That stock is down due to ESPN worries though.

Understood... but at the Board level and CEO level there are no "divisions". The goal/objective is for all divisions to do well - if they each do well, then the whole does well. After that, you look strategically...

For most International companies this is regional: I need a stable cash cow - Europe, North America - to buffer my earnings. Then you look for growth in other areas - China, Southeast Asia, Latin America. And... when all of those are at risk or not growing at the levels needed? You cut costs.

In the case of Disney... they are organized by area and not regionally. But same principal applies.

And then specific to the current debate/issue - within those Divisions you have budgets. When you are in a period of extreme growth, you can go to the well and get more money. But when the overall ship has challenges? That well is dry. So you must work within the budget you have. So you move money around (cut labor in one area to invest in another) so your overall budget is solid.

And then... when things get really bad...
Everyone has to contribute to offset a poor performing region or division.

And when there is no hope...
Everyone has to slash in order to fund an acquisition that will provide the growth and press wall street wants.

It just is what it is.
 
I think the fireworks announcement was definitely a squirrel.

An odd squirrel but a squirrel.

I say odd because you typically release bad news on a Friday because it gets buried. In this case, Disney bad news got 'leaked' instead of released. Then the press picked it up late Thursday, early Friday. In most PR worlds you thank your lucky stars and ignore it knowing the normal news cycle will let it die by Monday.

But then Disney released a good presser. In a quiet manner. Using a major property. On a Friday. And to top it all off... they already have a squirrel scheduled this weekend (Disneyland 60th). Makes no sense. Very odd. They theoretically cashed in some chips they didn't need to.

So either - this is small potatoes and they just threw it out there. Or, they wanted this out of the way before the big news hits (ticket changes), and they already have the big squirrels ready to go to offset that.

I'm thinking more and more that I want to watch these boards closely the next 3-4 weeks. Something tells me its going to get very exciting.

Good - Disneyland 60th with some exciting/unexpected news (Luigi, more Star Wars details, SW fireworks details)
Bad - Ticket changes (big ones)
Good - RoL opening date, Frozen opening date, Avatar update... something big to build on Disneyland 60th show and offset the ticket noise.
 
On a side note, one of the key things I see wrong with Disney right now is engagement of staff. Whether that is wages, or hiring practices, or management leadership I certainly don't know. But the motivation, excitement, and dedication of the staff I came into contact with was much lower than I've ever seen.

"Traditions" training used to be measured in days. Now it is measured in hours. Why invest more than that when most of your employees are college students who are going to leave in 6 months.
 
I don't think anyone can make the argument that SWWs cost Disney MORE than running an updated fireworks and projection show nightly, as well as the performances from characters.
Oh, I don't know -- you only have to buy the projectors and create the projection show once, vice paying performers every day... and they're already doing the fireworks (which I think is staffed by internal resources, not outsourced -- although I'm guessing they outsource the projectile production to China)... so that's an already sunk cost...

I'd say initial cost for the projection/fireworks might be a little higher than finding and training SWW performers, but you quickly equalize costs when you string them out over the SWW duration.
 





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