Future Recession: Which DVC resale Resorts drop fastest

[disneylandtour]

Sure, not really a hot take though. There have been several $100 or less already for RIV.

I know. This was in reaction to someone saying that there's only one there now, under $100.

 

[disneylandtour]

And will the rental market go down concurrently with Disney cracking down on commercial renting? If Disney needs more room reservations in bad times that might be when they move to eliminate the commercial renting.

From what I've seen, the current plan didn't depress commercial renting by much. It maybe scared away a few regular DVC owners with the scary language, but it did nothing to move the needle on actual commercial renting.

 

[jcolvin5]

I know. This was in reaction to someone saying that there's only one there now, under $100.

Sorry, I may be categorized as a defensive RIV owner

 

[maui22]

Derek of dvc show has talked about having to tell people he couldn’t sell the recent RIV financed contract because they would need to bring more money to the table than they could afford. It’s sad but things like this happen.

All resorts are at risk though.

To give an idea of how any resort can be hit, during the Great Recession there were some who put in lowball offers and bought BWV in the 20s/pt. They boasted about renting for several years and already doubled their money relatively quickly. The potential of Disney cracking down on renters may scare some of the big buyers off today.

 

[Sandisw]

I went through RIV on DVCforLess last week. There was three at $110 or less. And only one was a whale of a contract. Presently there's another 9 contracts between $111 and $115. I fully expect to see RIV resale under $100 by the end of the year.

DVD has taken some back at those low levels so it will be interesting to see if that continues if prices fall to the levels you believe they will.

 

[gvel]

and if it got to around 90 I'd be very interested if I could get my wife on board... My view is the high points chart will depress the resale price even further due to the restricted nature of the resort. You need so many of them, and you can't use them to stay at resorts that are cheaper...

This is a great point many overlook. It is not just restricted, but restricted to a very expensive point chart. I think RIV will resale for the same as SSR within 5 years.

 

[jcolvin5]

Restricted, high point chart and it’s a niche resort even within the niche DVC product. Almost Disney adjacent.