Future Recession: Which DVC resale Resorts drop fastest

[Mirabell Rose]

Given the current economic indicators, we may be in for a very painful economic recession. If this happens, which DVC resale property(s) do you think will drop the most and why?

 

[bdrex28]

Given the current economic indicators, we may be in for a very painful economic recession. If this happens, which DVC resale property(s) do you think will drop the most and why?

How do you think they'll drop? Why would one drop over another?

 

[Psymonds]

How do you think they'll drop? Why would one drop over another?

Supply and resale restrictions will affect resort cost, as well as longevity; for example I would expect Grand Californian to stay pretty high, due to limited supply. I might expect Old Key west to drop faster, due to lack of longevity, depending on the timing of any potential recession.

 

[bdrex28]

Supply and resale restrictions will affect resort cost, as well as longevity; for example I would expect Grand Californian to stay pretty high, due to limited supply. I might expect Old Key west to drop faster, due to lack of longevity, depending on the timing of any potential recession.

OKW is 2042 and 2057 (those that opted into the extension) So, not much different than the other 2042 expirations but there are still 2057 expirations.

I would expect the drop to be more affected by the 2042 date than any recession. Recession will drive more resale sales than direct.

And since BWV and BCV are 2042s and more expensive per point I would think on a purely financial status they'd drop first.

However, DVC is not just about financial choices it's about choices of the heart over mind many times.

Vero and HH are also 2042

 

[SugarSweetLee]

Someone woke up feeling spicy today

 

[Mirabell Rose]

The economy is cylindrical. There will be a downturn. No one can say exactly when, but there are indicators when it’s more likely. It’s always best to buy low and sell high.

I understand that 2042’s have less time on them. And the heart doesn’t in itself generate $$. Downturns are personal. Those that lose employment get hit, others may not. So even though 2042’s have less remaining time, I would think that more of those who own those resorts may be old enough to have more reliable income streams like pensions and social security. They are also less likely to be financed.

I think the newer resorts will be hit the most for the resale market as they tend to have the youngest average age of buyers and are most likely to be still under a loan to purchase.

Thoughts?

 

[Psymonds]

The economy is cylindrical. There will be a downturn. No one can say exactly when, but there are indicators when it’s more likely. It’s always best to buy low and sell high.

I understand that 2042’s have less time on them. And the heart doesn’t in itself generate $$. Downturns are personal. Those that lose employment get hit, others may not. So even though 2042’s have less remaining time, I would think that more of those who own those resorts may be old enough to have more reliable income streams like pensions and social security. They are also less likely to be financed.

I think the newer resorts will be hit the most for the resale market as they tend to have the youngest average age of buyers and are most likely to be still under a loan to purchase.

Thoughts?

I think resale value is also influenced by resort cash prices.

All I know is that when I've guessed in the past about this I've been wrong

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I think resale value is also influenced by resort cash prices.

All I know is that when I've guessed in the past about this I've been wrong

Cash prices were great in the last big recession 2009-2012 had amazing incentives and new points were well under $100 each. But the only cash prices that will see much activity with the drop will be the currently selling new resorts as resale of the old resorts by DVC itself remain very small. That als to me would indicate the resale on the current new resorts would drop the most.

 

[TCRAIG]

I predict Riviera will drop the quickest in resale…this is based on my suspicions that most RIV buyers are younger and new to DVC and Disney will be seen as a luxury that easily jettison from the budget…but that’s just my opinion.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I predict Riviera will drop the quickest in resale…this is based on my suspicions that most RIV buyers are younger and new to DVC and Disney will be seen as a luxury that easily jettison from the budget…but that’s just my opinion.

It’s all just opinions. Thanks for sharing yours.

 

[cruisehopeful]

My thoughts are the same, even if there isn't a recession. I think VB and HHI will drop the quickest and that's because of annual dues.

I think any financed contracts will go next. Paying hundreds every month for an expensive theme park vacation once in a while is very low on the priority list when you lose your job.

 

[VGCgroupie]

If we are talking which will decline the fastest you already see it. VB and HHI.

If you are talking major economic disaster like you say then they will all be affected. If there’s a major economic disaster why would anyone be comparing DVC prices.

 

[TCRAIG]

It’s all just opinions. Thanks for sharing yours.

Wish I had a DVC Magic Eight Ball - I probably would have done so many things different!

 

[Mirabell Rose]

If we are talking which will decline the fastest you already see it. VB and HHI.

If you are talking major economic disaster like you say then they will all be affected. If there’s a major economic disaster why would anyone be comparing DVC prices.

Again, economic downturns do not hit equally. There will be people for whom that time may be the best to invest and people who will need to sell. In general down times are buyers markets. That happened for new DVC contracts in the last recession. Now there’s also a very active resale market that will show the effect. We are giving speculation as to how that may affect some resort resales more than others.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

Wish I had a DVC Magic Eight Ball - I probably would have done so many things different!

Agreed. And there can be speculation on how a whole number of things might be affected at Disney in a recession, but I thought it would be fun to chat about DVC resale in particular since we have a lot of DVC members on this forum. I didn’t know of the resale market last big recession, so I have no idea what even happened last time.

 

[Sandisw]

Over the 16 years I have been an owner, I have found the ebb and flow to be pretty similar to all resorts.

I think it’s possible that the 2042 resorts could be impacted slightly more only because we under 16 years of use.

People who still want to buy may not be willing to pay as much for those.