Future of Resells

[WolfpackFan]

Will the fact that we're hearing that BCV may sellout by the end of the year and they don't have any new resorts coming online in the immediate future, mean 1) that resells may become much more popular in the future (like next year) and the resell price might go up or 2) that Disney might do more purchases of resells using their first right of refusal and then sell the resells themselves? I am planning on buying in next six months and will probably go the resell right, but I'm wondering if this will be more difficult in future as BCV gets soldout.

 

[ralphd]

My guess is:

1. Doubt they will sellout BCV before First Quarter, 2003.

2. Do not think DVD makes much money on first right of refusal resales, so I don't think availablity will increase because of DVD repurchases.

3. Availability of resales will continue to be dependent on the same factors: the economy, percent of people that buy and later decide they are unhappy with their purchase and other family related problems that force sales.


4. Absence of DVD inventory could have a short term effect on DVC pricing.

5. External factors ( Fairfield development) could have a short term effect.

6. External factors and absence of inventory could force a push for earlier completion on the DI Villas and/or advance sales of DI Villas.

ralphd

 

[jmminarik]

Originally posted by ralphd
My guess is:


2. Do not think DVD makes much money on first right of refusal resales, so I don't think availablity will increase because of DVD repurchases.

ralphd

But if they have nothing to sell themselves, then DVD would have impetus to exercise this right, if for no other reason to keep their sales force occupied. Don't forget, any points DVD 'owns' in developer inventory can be used for cash ressies means they can in effect, buy points, rent out rooms for top dollar, then turn around and sell points and still make $10-20 per point 'profit'.

Since it seems there are people waiting for small point add-ons at the popular resorts, DVD should have a ready pool of purchasers for buying points.

-Joe

 

[ralphd]

They (DVD) have not shown an interest in purchasing for resale in the past, but a lack of inventory could change their strartegy.
I think they will probably start pre-selling the DI Villas(?). The sell-out date of BCV will obviously have an effect any of the senarios.

ralphd

 

[WolfpackFan]

Originally posted by ralphd
I think they will probably start pre-selling the DI Villas(?).

Re. pre-sells on DI Villas (or any DVC resort) - if you purchase a pre-sell and the property is not going to be ready for some period of time; can you book at one of the other properties before the actual property you're purchasing is ready? For example, say they start doing pre-sells on the DI Villas (would they call this one DIV or VDI I wonder) in January 2003, but they wouldn't be ready until October 2003 and you purchase 150 points; is there anyway they would let you use the points in June 2003 at another DVC resort (assuming you could get ressies)? This is my situation, it might very well be that we would like to purchase DIV/VDI/whatever when pre-sells start, but we are difinitely going to WDW June 2003 and I'd like to do it as a DVC member using points. Hope this question makes sense. I'm just concerned that by the time we are ready to buy (6 month time window probably), BCV will be all sold as well as HH which is another choice.

 

[RobDoc]

DVC has always been quite creative in providing incentives to augment their sales program when needed.

When BCV began sales, there was a price reduction or an option for a voucher for free stays at WDW resorts. While I doubt BCV will be sold out before next year, I'm confident that DVC will offer some sort of similar accommodation program if presales of the DI property are started.

BCV has already been for sale for over 6 months and is at about 40% sold. I wouldn't expect that resort to be sold out for 6-10 months at this point- despite predictions of an earlier sell out.

Enjoy!

 

[ralphd]

Agree with Doc on sell-out date and the incentive package. DVD will come up with a incentive package to give DVC members that purchase DI Villas 'prior to completion', at least a option for a WDW vacation. The package would have to be based on the time lapse between BCV sell-out and opening date of DI Villas.

ralphd

 

[Dean]

I would assume that the prices will go a little higher and inventory will decline if DVC is not actively selling for 6-12 months or so. I would doubt that DVC makes any money on resales. My guess is that even at $60 pp, they would either not break even of just barely do so. I'd figure they've have to have a $30 point spread to make any money. Still, it should be a good time to sell if one is inclined.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Do you think the resale price has/will increase due to the new $80 DVD price?

 

[Richyams]

I think their construction was timed to not have any inventory.

Two reasons

To let VB and HH sell out, I know this has happened, but the timing was put into place a long time ago.

Second, I believe this will dramatically push up the price of resales. If they can go a few months with no inventory, we could see resales push to $80-90, this would allow them to open DI at $100+ per point....especially if a new end date is put in place.

This lull could be the time to change the end date.....the big strike against that is the fact that the end date has not yet begun to effect sales.

 

[ralphd]

The economy will decide what many people will be willing to pay for DVC points. Now is a good time to buy many stocks, but how many people do you know who just purchased a couple hundred shares of Disney stock?
Agree with those who have said that the BCV sales were spurred by existing members adding points, and other people who were waiting for BCV (or an Epcot resort) to go on sale.
Whether DVD planned to sell-out the WDW resorts in order to facilitate sales off site is anyones guess. Somehow I doubt it.
Do not think we will see a price increase in the near future.

ralphd

 

[Dean]

I agree that if DVC has no inventory, there will be an upwards pusht o resale prices. I do not think that we will see them at or above the current selling price though. I also can't see DI at $100 per point assuming a similar points structure to BCV. I think $5-7 per point is a reasonable expectation. Maybe up to $70 per point for resales if they meet other positive criteria. I'd expect DI to open at $80-85 per point, likely with incentives similar to BCV early selling.