Ft. Wilderness Cabins becoming DVC?

[AwfulWaffle]

Yes, that is my view.... Whether my dog wishes to experience the magic is less certain....

On another note, during our June trip, it was noted down by someone, and our guide called us and left a VM. So Disney is definitely already tracking interest in the cabins. My concern is we like being near the parks (walking distance). So, I'm not convinced we are going to buy the cabins. However, a 2074 expiration date would work very nicely for me. We will see....

I too doubt I will buy at the cabins as well and just 7 month into them from time to time. Personally I want my 11 month booking window at Poly2 but this will certainly be a nice option from time to time when we do want to just do a resort only stay and bring the little fellow.

 

[ehh]

I too doubt I will buy at the cabins as well and just 7 month into them from time to time. Personally I want my 11 month booking window at Poly2 but this will certainly be a nice option from time to time when we do want to just do a resort only stay and bring the little fellow.

Unless you want to stay in a CFW Cabin at peak times of year, I think booking at 7m is a good plan you have.

Even with a fairly high owner usage rate, cabins have a decent probability of having reliable 7m availability, except at certain times of year.

Two things are true about every resort:

1. Owners leave some inventory available at 7m due to point non-use or SAP.
2. Every resort has some sort of imbalance of popularity within the room categories, where certain rooms make it to 7m more reliably.

We regularly see 7m inventory, even at very hard to book resorts:

• VGC has an extremely high owner usage rate, and 1BR/2BR make it to 7m fairly often.
• VGF has a high owner usage rate, and TPV/LV Resort Studios make it to 7m most of the year, plus some 1BR/2BR do too.
• Poly has an unknown-to-me owner usage rate (I don't think it's high), but Bungalows (~30% of points) always make it to 7m and Studios do most of the year, too.
• BWV has an unknown-to-me owner usage rate, but 1BR G/P view regularly make it to 7m.
• RIV has an unknown-to-me owner usage rate, and most categories make it to 7m, except Tower/SV Studios and sometimes SV 2BR and PV Studios.

All of the above 'makes it to 7m' categories will just be cabins at CFW--having a resort of just one (or 1 + pet-friendly) category guarantees that unused inventory is that one category.

Will having a single category make owner usage rate higher? I can see it working out like that as no one will be 'blocked' from booking at their home resort due to a specific category being unavailable. But there might also be longterm fatigue from having the same room layout every single year (I think we might see this at the Poly).

But even if CFW has a crazy 90% owner points usage rate (I don't think VGC is even this high) in the 11m-7m window, that means pretty significant inventory available at 7m for non-owners--35 cabins per night on average! And considering some seasons will definitely be sold out (early Dec, Christmas, Halloween, etc.), that means even more availability other times of the year.

Said another way: the cabins at CFW will be the least popular category at CFW and therefore have the highest odds of being available, if anything is available at CFW. (yes, cabins are the only category, that's my point)

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Poly has an unknown-to-me owner usage rate (I don't think it's high), but Bungalows (~30% of points) always make it to 7m and Studios do most of the year, too.

Personally, my biggest issue is this is year one for us as DVC owners and I do not own any direct points yet. We have visited the Polynesian studios as cash guests a many times because that theming is totally my vibe. Unfortunately there are no 1BR so we can no longer stay there, 2 adults and 3 kids is a little tight. I know I will eventually need direct points to pull off a 7 month stay in the new cabins or at Riviera but the 11 month window at both of these isn’t worth the cost of direct to me.
However, if Poly Tower comes online as a new association then my hands are forced to get direct sooner rather than later so we can resume our time in the wonderful theming of the Polynesian. It would be amazing if it’s not a new association but we shall see ::fingers crossed:: Right now we have 11 month at Wilderness Lodge for our occasional Christmas trip to Disney which is good enough for us.
I would love to get the ppp with all the direct incentives going on right now but we are good ole country folk and we just don’t need or want home priority at either of RIV or GFV. Hopefully we are blessed with some good incentives when Poly tower comes up so we can get both the 11 month priority booking at Poly and the 7 month booking access to the cabins for the years we don’t use our Poly points

 

[kristenrice]

Unless you want to stay in a CFW Cabin at peak times of year, I think booking at 7m is a good plan you have.

Even with a fairly high owner usage rate, cabins have a decent probability of having reliable 7m availability, except at certain times of year.

Two things are true about every resort:

1. Owners leave some inventory available at 7m due to point non-use or SAP.
2. Every resort has some sort of imbalance of popularity within the room categories, where certain rooms make it to 7m more reliably.

We regularly see 7m inventory, even at very hard to book resorts:

• VGC has an extremely high owner usage rate, and 1BR/2BR make it to 7m fairly often.
• VGF has a high owner usage rate, and TPV/LV Resort Studios make it to 7m most of the year, plus some 1BR/2BR do too.
• Poly has an unknown-to-me owner usage rate (I don't think it's high), but Bungalows (~30% of points) always make it to 7m and Studios do most of the year, too.
• BWV has an unknown-to-me owner usage rate, but 1BR G/P view regularly make it to 7m.
• RIV has an unknown-to-me owner usage rate, and most categories make it to 7m, except Tower/SV Studios and sometimes SV 2BR and PV Studios.

All of the above 'makes it to 7m' categories will just be cabins at CFW--having a resort of just one (or 1 + pet-friendly) category guarantees that unused inventory is that one category.

Will having a single category make owner usage rate higher? I can see it working out like that as no one will be 'blocked' from booking at their home resort due to a specific category being unavailable. But there might also be longterm fatigue from having the same room layout every single year (I think we might see this at the Poly).

But even if CFW has a crazy 90% owner points usage rate (I don't think VGC is even this high) in the 11m-7m window, that means pretty significant inventory available at 7m for non-owners--35 cabins per night on average! And considering some seasons will definitely be sold out (early Dec, Christmas, Halloween, etc.), that means even more availability other times of the year.

Said another way: the cabins at CFW will be the least popular category at CFW and therefore have the highest odds of being available, if anything is available at CFW. (yes, cabins are the only category, that's my point)

How many people are going to actually want to OWN at the cabins? Will there be a large population of people that are willing to lock themselves in to a single unit type for 50 years? I'm sure that certain GW's will sell, particularly in the fall, but that will not account for a large percentage of the points. If points remain unsold, the inventory available for non-owners to trade into at 7 months won't be there as those points will go to cash rentals.

I am really curious to see how this resort is presented. The cost per point and the points chart are going to have be exactly right in order for this to succeed. The cabins are significantly smaller than 1BR's, but have more occupancy and amenities than a studio. I would not even consider them if they are priced higher than a 1BR at Riviera.

 

[Stargazer65]

I am really curious to see how this resort is presented. The cost per point and the points chart are going to have be exactly right in order for this to succeed. The cabins are significantly smaller than 1BR's, but have more occupancy and amenities than a studio. I would not even consider them if they are priced higher than a 1BR at Riviera.

I'm curious how the resort is presented also. Is CFW going to be the first time a DVC resort is built at a moderate resort? Is there any significance to that, maybe yes, maybe no?

 

[Apthorp76]

I'm curious how the resort is presented also. Is CFW going to be the first time a DVC resort is built at a moderate resort? Is there any significance to that, maybe yes, maybe no?

I wondered about this possibility also. Riverside and Coronado COULD be another two candidates after CFW. They seem to always be available (lowish occupancy) and converting them to DVC would add a second revenue stream from these properties.

Disney introduced the "resort studios" and now CFW so other non-traditional DVC plans could be on the table.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I just don't see DVC entering into the moderate market at all. It would eliminate the benefits that DVC resorts enjoy along with the cash deluxe resorts. Points can be used anywhere, but if you use them at Resort A, you get early entry and extended hours, but use them at Resort B and you're out of luck?

I think anywhere DVC moves into will be transformed into a deluxe, and amenities (and cash rates) adjusted accordingly. Offering anything less dilutes the product they are trying to sell.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I just don't see DVC entering into the moderate market at all. It would eliminate the benefits that DVC resorts enjoy along with the cash deluxe resorts. Points can be used anywhere, but if you use them at Resort A, you get early entry and extended hours, but use them at Resort B and you're out of luck?

I think anywhere DVC moves into will be transformed into a deluxe, and amenities (and cash rates) adjusted accordingly. Offering anything less dilutes the product they are trying to sell.

This is a really interesting idea to kick around. I could see one opportunity for DVC to dip into the moderate market is to create and market a more "affordable' DVC experience. They would need to restrict how those points could be used and at which resorts, but it could open up a whole new market.

 

[gmi3804]

As prices drop, the market becomes larger. Real Estate 101.

 

[Apthorp76]

I just don't see DVC entering into the moderate market at all. It would eliminate the benefits that DVC resorts enjoy along with the cash deluxe resorts. Points can be used anywhere, but if you use them at Resort A, you get early entry and extended hours, but use them at Resort B and you're out of luck?

I think anywhere DVC moves into will be transformed into a deluxe, and amenities (and cash rates) adjusted accordingly. Offering anything less dilutes the product they are trying to sell.

Good point about DVC=deluxe. I don't think any of the moderates have balconies which DVC units have.

We stayed in the now converted VGF building before the rooms became Resort Studios and they were already quite nice with a real balcony.

 

[Cybertruck]

I just don't see DVC entering into the moderate market at all. It would eliminate the benefits that DVC resorts enjoy along with the cash deluxe resorts. Points can be used anywhere, but if you use them at Resort A, you get early entry and extended hours, but use them at Resort B and you're out of luck?

I think anywhere DVC moves into will be transformed into a deluxe, and amenities (and cash rates) adjusted accordingly. Offering anything less dilutes the product they are trying to sell.

Agree, this is exactly what they did with RR. The point charts reflect the premium deluxe product they want to promote.

 

[Cfabar1]

Pete spoke into this on a recent episode of the DVC show and wondered if this is Disney's experiment in moderates.

I think the fact that the cabins offer many similar benefits to the DVC villas means it could work.

The points charts for any moderate resorts will be key. To me, they'd have to be OKW/SSR level points charts. My other major concern is how it will really mess up the 7 month booking window. You'd have people trading their points out of moderate resorts and into Disney Deluxe resorts. I'd hate to be stuck going to a moderate at 7 months, I bought DVC to stay at a Disney Deluxe resort.

 

[Sandisw]

This is a really interesting idea to kick around. I could see one opportunity for DVC to dip into the moderate market is to create and market a more "affordable' DVC experience. They would need to restrict how those points could be used and at which resorts, but it could open up a whole new market.

If they did this, i would be a strong advocate that the deluxe properties that currently exist have a longer home resort period.

 

[Cybertruck]

As a SSR owner I get it is not the same as a BLT or CCV but if Disney did moderate DVCs they need to be significantly less points than SSR/OKW. Placing at the same level as SSR/OKW implies they are not deluxe resorts. I see the great reset (deed expiration dates) as an opportunity to set RR as the base and go up from there. Does anyone believe the new Boardwalk and Beach Club would be less than current Rivera points?

Moderate DVC needs to be a clear distinction between Deluxe and Moderate DVCs. I believe Disney will not create Moderate DVCs unless it follows the RR blueprint. If I removed my DVC = printing money hat. I could see some marketing team creating the Fort Wilderness Cabins Wilderness a response to the very popular Tiny Home movement. Tiny Home destinations really resonate with a whole generation of people who travel for experiences. If only Disney was still this clever.

 

[BeachClub2014]

As a SSR owner I get it is not the same as a BLT or CCV but if Disney did moderate DVCs they need to be significantly less points than SSR/OKW. Placing at the same level as SSR/OKW implies they are not deluxe resorts. I see the great reset (deed expiration dates) as an opportunity to set RR as the base and go up from there. Does anyone believe the new Boardwalk and Beach Club would be less than current Rivera points?

Moderate DVC needs to be a clear distinction between Deluxe and Moderate DVCs. I believe Disney will not create Moderate DVCs unless it follows the RR blueprint. If I removed my DVC = printing money hat. I could see some marketing team creating the Fort Wilderness Cabins Wilderness a response to the very popular Tiny Home movement. Tiny Home destinations really resonate with a whole generation of people who travel for experiences. If only Disney was still this clever.

Totally agree that there would need to be a clear distinction between the current DVC structure and the concept of a moderate DVC. I wonder if they could require additional points per night for using the "moderate DVC" points in one of the "deluxe DVC resorts"? For instance, if an OKW studio goes for 10 points per night under the current DVC, it might take 12 or 13 "moderate DVC" points for that night. I do not know if the POS would allow that, but if so, that is one way to keep the premium distinction.

 

[BeachClub2014]

If they did this, i would be a strong advocate that the deluxe properties that currently exist have a longer home resort period.

Yes. Totally agree.

 

[BL2020]

The points charts for any moderate resorts will be key. To me, they'd have to be OKW/SSR level points charts. My other major concern is how it will really mess up the 7 month booking window. You'd have people trading their points out of moderate resorts and into Disney Deluxe resorts. I'd hate to be stuck going to a moderate at 7 months, I bought DVC to stay at a Disney Deluxe resort.

Agreed, the competition at 7 months, already stiff, will be getting even more difficult. I own at two monorail resorts that I haven't even stayed at yet (but have both booked), what I really like about DVC is the ability to try different resorts and this may become much more difficult. While I would likely try CFW when they become available, they would not ever be a priority for me due to both the transportation/bus reliant situation (we prefer not to bring/rent cars) and the extra space which we don't really need (either just the two of us or if traveling with adult kids, they would have their own studio in most cases). I could also see these becoming rather raucous resorts with groups of 6 adults staying with lots of opportunities for partying, and less of the current situation for family booking (though I guess that could be the case now, but with high occupancy to point ratio, could be greater). Just an observation from my experience with real camping.

 

[maui22]

The couple times we tried to book them (before we bought DVC in 2009), the cabins were always booked. No clue how it has changed in the 15+ years since then.

 

[Sandisw]

Pete spoke into this on a recent episode of the DVC show and wondered if this is Disney's experiment in moderates.

I think the fact that the cabins offer many similar benefits to the DVC villas means it could work.

The points charts for any moderate resorts will be key. To me, they'd have to be OKW/SSR level points charts. My other major concern is how it will really mess up the 7 month booking window. You'd have people trading their points out of moderate resorts and into Disney Deluxe resorts. I'd hate to be stuck going to a moderate at 7 months, I bought DVC to stay at a Disney Deluxe resort.

Which is why if they did this, i think they’d get a lot of push back from owners at those deluxe resorts to change the home resort priority so it was longer to prevent what you mention.

Would they have to? Probably not but given that they’d be two different types of resorts, they do have the responsibility to set exchange rules that seem fair.

It’s why I just don’t see them having a big push into the moderate resort area …the cabins are an interesting move and I do think that given their nature of stand alone “tiny homes” it might work to call them deluxe villa…we shall see.

 

[Leight19]

My concern with them being reclassified as deluxe is shared amenities with the rest of fort wilderness. Would they really build new pools and such for dvc to have their own that campers cant use? I just can’t see how they could justify calling it a deluxe resort when others are staying there for value resort price.