I wouldn't buy direct
DVC at all right now with the decisions DVC and Disney in general are making, an obvious example being the AP.
If I were buying direct -- After staying in VGF2, I would wait for Poly2, especially if you would rather have Poly anyway. Guesses have put points for sale late summer or fall 2023, so not long to wait at all. It should be obvious pretty soon if this project is going or not. I'd hands down take a new building over this cheap flip, even with restrictions.
I think the VGF incentives are good, and even think it's a good mathematical buy as sleep around points. But resale is better and now is an excellent time to buy resale. Especially Poly resale with all the uncertainty and tons on the market. And if you plan to by Poly2, the existing owner incentives could be great. They were for VGF2 and for RIV. And you should be able to split your 150 buy in if you are an existing owner. A new owner had to buy 150 of VGF2, but an existing owner could buy two 75s or three 50s.