FREE DINING UPDATE- RUMOR and SPECULATION / Update Page 80 !

[byerspc]

I don't know that your first part makes a whole lot of sense. Why not make reservations with the thought that disney will probably offer some kind of a discount that will be similar in $$ value even if it is not free dining?

 

[Port Orleans fan]

Well with all those rooms booked at rack rates in anticipation for fall dining.. I wouldn't be surprised if it was 'less exciting.. '

And I'm serious about that.

One former resorts employee had told me one year that they had an almost 50% cancellation rate on September bookings who were switching to F/D .. and that was considered a 'poor promo success' because it didn't get NEW bookings.. it simply took existing bookings and switched them over. Now that is how the bean counters saw it...

We see it differently.. but you gotta understand how the actions of many acting for themselves affects the group as a whole. Game theory.. again. If everyone didn't rush to pre-book before the promo comes out - there would be more rooms at more resorts for EVERYONE to book when the promo comes out... AND the promo would be evaluated for its success rate accurately and positively.

There are a LOT of reasons to think long and hard about pre-booking before a promo comes out. And this is one of them.

Sadly you've made some good points.

Thanks for raining on my parade, LOL.

 

[mking624]

There are restaurants on Disney property that participate in the dining plan that are not actually Disney owned. So it's not as if Disney would be taking the complete "loss"...for restaurants that are not theirs, the actual parent company of the restaurant would be the ones taking the biggest hit.

 

[tiki23]

I don't know that your first part makes a whole lot of sense. Why not make reservations with the thought that disney will probably offer some kind of a discount that will be similar in $$ value even if it is not free dining?

There are reasons spelled out..for both camps of thinking...in earlier pages of this thread and also on this other thread: http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2435987

 

[mickeystoontown]

I don't know that your first part makes a whole lot of sense. Why not make reservations with the thought that disney will probably offer some kind of a discount that will be similar in $$ value even if it is not free dining?

What they are saying is (at least I think) is that Disney looks at how their resorts are filling up (or not filling up) before putting out promotions. If people book ahead in anticipation that a promotion is going to be put out, Disney is looking at those rooms as being booked which is a good thing in their mind. If Disney sees that the rooms are booked without a promotion during that time period, why should they offer a promo? And, the number of rooms that are available to be booked under a promotion is limited.

Hopefully that made sense. It did in my little mind.

 

[magpie889]

As of April 1st.. you could book all your ADRs thru the end of September anyway.. so.. this isn't that great of a benefit in my book. Especially for those who just booked in hopes of F/D over the weekend.. Fairly pointless in my book. And if you end up having to change your dates to get the F/D (as is often the case) .. even more pointless.

Ok it gets you the ADR's which are absolutely useless without a hotel to stay in and the free dining offer everybody is hoping for. And by booking ahead.. you've effectively reduced the number of rooms likely to be offered on whatever the fall promo is.. And as I said, the ADRs are no good without the F/D resort booknig for the exact same dates you already booked... UNLESS - you plan on going with or without F/D.

Sorry, I just don't see that as a big enough benefit for all the potential hassle. I read last year and the year before many many times of guests who said..





I'm told the 30% offer is NOT the offer that will come out this week.. (probably Thursday)



Very good. Just not this week. (sorry)



Well.. remember... Disney often layers different offers booking windows together so that if offer "A" doesn't get you excited, maybe offer "B" will.. we saw that with the 20/30/40 offer and the Gift Card both available to booked at the same time.

We are looking at a VERY small window of time (last week and this week) and because the offer WE get excited about didn't come out - we're not pleased.



Here's another clue as to just how bad things are. Disney lifted special offer black out dates around Easter. And for the first time that I've been doing this - Disney had discounts at the resorts for Easter.

They did that about 2-3 weeks before Easter.. and a lot of people jumped at it.

Disney is doing what they are doing because frankly .. they are worried about the dates you see on each promo. Very worried in some cases.



Just what I posted a few pages back in this thread. Nothing really "new" per se.

Ultimately.. we may not be pleased with WHATEVER promos Disney comes out with. We're allowed to not like them.

But just remember.. just cause you don't like them - that doesn't mean that enough other people didn't find them just 'jim dandy' and book immediately.

We're an odd bunch here and sometimes tend to be fairly demanding.

Why?

Because we've been pretty heavily spoiled with all these discounts the past few years. Believe you me - the minute the economy picks up and folks have more disposable income in hand.. you're going to see fewer discounts. Not all the way to 'none' but definitely a whole lot less.

We've become very spoiled with the offers and discounts... and I include myself in that we.

I tell my friends that I keep going back to Disney because ultimately -- I can't go anywhere else for the same money and get all the same "stuff" as part of my vacation. And that is at rack rates. Throw in the discounts and I REALLY can't go anywhere else 'good' for less.

Now, I don't stay at deluxe hotels very often.. I don't tend to get the DDP or eat at TS more than a couple of times in a weeks stay, I don't tend to eat a lot of food anyway so the DDP just doesn't work for me.. and I am not buying tickets for a family of four..

I recognize all of that makes a HUGE difference.

Everyone has to evaluate for their own situation.

In all honesty do you believe the deal for late August is going to be similar to last years? and when do you think Disney will release deals?

 

[verlee]

I think around the 14th? It was the travel channel. One was a budget show, one was behind the scenes and the other was with that blond girl that does the travel shows...I forget her name. There was a cruise one too but that didn't interest me

I have directv and you can search shows by key word, I just put in Disney and saved it, every now and then i search to see if any disney shows are coming up, I get a few things that don't apply but it is the easiest way to find WDW shows!

OK found it..

14th 4 pm
Disney: On a Dime
Disney: On a Dime
Disney: On A Dime shreds any misconceptions that a Disney World vacation is too expensive for the average family to afford! The show follows the experience of three different families on how to make a Disney World dream vacation fit within their budget. TV-G, CC

5pm
Samantha Brown's Disney Favorites

6pm
Walt Disney World Resort: Behind the Scenes

That is good news!!

 

[canadianmommyof2]

I don't know that your first part makes a whole lot of sense. Why not make reservations with the thought that disney will probably offer some kind of a discount that will be similar in $$ value even if it is not free dining?

I hope this is what you are talking about; but what he is saying is, if xx amount of people booked with anticipation of FD and plan on cancelling if it isn't offered it throws the numbers off.

Say the hotel is booked at 50% currently and disney is going to offer free dining in hopes of getting bookings to 75%...that means they will allot 25% of rooms to free dining. Now if the day they open up free dining 25% of the already booked rooms cancel and re book with the free dining program then it puts the numbers in the same spot. The resort would still only have 50% bookings and no rooms left on the promo. If people who were just waiting to see if they are going to offer free dining would wait then disney may see that they only have 25% of rooms booked and may offer 50% of the rooms on the free dining allowing more people to book at the discount. I hope that wasn't too confusing.

 

[Motherofboys]

I don't know that your first part makes a whole lot of sense. Why not make reservations with the thought that disney will probably offer some kind of a discount that will be similar in $$ value even if it is not free dining?

Disney looks at the bookings and sees that rooms are booked at rack rate. Why offer an incentive?

For example, the discussion could go like this:

Marketing rep: Pop Century for September is 75% booked at rack rate, so it looks like we are doing well with that time period, no need to offer many rooms at Pop for free dining

Then they offer free dining and 90% of those already booked cancel their original reservation and rebook free dining at another value or another resort

Marketing rep: Well free dining only generated 20% new bookings and resulted in us losing all of those rack rate reservations.....not a very good promo for us, maybe we should look into doing something different


I stand by the very unpopular view that you should not book a room and hope for free dining, it is counter productive for everyone.

Unless you are going no matter what and willing to pay the rack rate, of course.

 

[metsno1]

In all honesty do you believe the deal for late August is going to be similar to last years? and when do you think Disney will release deals?

Yeah, I think that it will ultimately be a very similar offer compared to what's been out there in previous years. But the more I've thought about all this (and that's a LOT!!!), the more inclined I am to believe a couple things:

1. CanadianGuy is exactly right. Booking in advance in hopes of adding a promo to your ressie is like shooting yourself (and others!) in the foot. (I didn't agree with this at first, but I most definitely do now!)

2. Disney recognizes that releasing their Fall promo now will likely result in a number of current Summer ressies being transferred to the new promo dates, resulting in a net loss for them. So I think they'll wait until at least the beginning of next month to release anything for after August 14. Which stinks, because a lot of us have PINS that must be used prior to April 30. I'll be waiting until the very last minute to book with my PIN-but I can't risk losing the free QSDP only to be left with nada if the fall promos fall through.

3. Another reason this stinks is because my airfare total has already gone up about $150 over the last week, and I don't see it going back down any time soon.

4. Harry Potter is screwing everything up!!

5. For us, waiting it out is the best-and ultimately only-option. Disney knows that there are a ton of us who aren't rack-rate people (and never will be!!), but they won't be catering to us as much as they have in the past.

 

[verlee]

Thanks for the insight Canadianguy!

 

[canadianmommyof2]

At the end of the day this is how I see it and this is just my opinion; I wouldn't book a holiday with the anticipation of a discount...we booked because we are going with or without a discount (we would love it if there is a discount offered ) but if we felt that without a discount we couldn't afford it then we wouldn't book that vacation. I was shocked when trying to make reservations for table service meals that so many were already booked and now I know why and I also know that several may become free if a promo isn't announced. It's a little frustrating because now I will have to continue to look every day or so to see if any reservations open up for the restaurants that we would really like to try (Le Cellier) and we are going to go to for sure because with or without a discount we will be going on our vacation. I do understand that the economy is playing a huge part in this, but before we know it these deals are going to go away. Again, JMO

EDIT: I just wanted to clarify, when I said that "without a discount we couldn't afford it" that doesn't go for everyone...it could be that if there isn't a discount that you don't feel like paying rack rate is worth it either...whatever your reason is I wouldn't book unless I was comforatable with the price that I was quoted at the time of booking.

 

[DaniB]

Well.. remember... Disney often layers different offers booking windows together so that if offer "A" doesn't get you excited, maybe offer "B" will.. we saw that with the 20/30/40 offer and the Gift Card both available to booked at the same time.

This is our first trip, and we are booked for the 2nd week in September.

The gift card offer was tempting as it would have been $500 souvenior/trinket/treat money for us. However there was just no way we could have gone before the promo ended.

I'd love to see a FD or 4/3 including dining promo come out. However that will be pixie dust for us as we will be going regardless. But I sure am wishing!

 

[CanadianGuy]

I don't know that your first part makes a whole lot of sense. Why not make reservations with the thought that disney will probably offer some kind of a discount that will be similar in $$ value even if it is not free dining?

Asked and answered. I've always wanted to say that .. even tho I'm not a lawyer.

Short answer: A Booking now .. has zero value because the promo rooms come from a separate room inventory which is 'created' for the promo.

You can't 'convert' your reservation.. if there is no inventory on the promo at your preferred resort.

If you can switch what you have booked when the promo comes out - you would have just as much (exactly in fact) the same luck booking an entirely new reservation at the same time.

Why? Because that is in essence what the CM on the phone will be doing. Cancelling your rack rate room and moving you to the promo room. Depending how they go about this - you may or may not get a new reservation number.

Regardless: Having something booked today at ___insert resort name here____ guarantees you nothing when the promo comes out.

Nada. Zilch. Zero.

[This is how you know I'm not tied to any travel agency. If I were.. I'd tell you to book now.. So my agency got the booking.. so.. remember that when your T/A tells you to book now.]

There are restaurants on Disney property that participate in the dining plan that are not actually Disney owned. So it's not as if Disney would be taking the complete "loss"...for restaurants that are not theirs, the actual parent company of the restaurant would be the ones taking the biggest hit.

If I'm not mistaken, Disney actually reimburses non-owned restaurants at a fixed rate for ALL DDP guests.. even the free ones. So .. yeah.. actually Disney is the one taking the loss.

In all honesty do you believe the deal for late August is going to be similar to last years? and when do you think Disney will release deals?

Don't know. Really wouldn't even hazard to guess.. But I wouldn't expect ANY promo to come out for August 15th and beyond til at least May 1st.

Sorry I don't have better news.

 

[BebopBaloo]

I agree that booking in advance in hopes of FD is not the way to go. CanadianGuy, thank you for your analysis that is both intelligent and perhaps the most accurate. I know it's hard not to book in advance when we are all planners and eagerly want to 'know' what is in our vacation future. I agree that it is a pain to wait and watch airfare go up, too.

I think perhaps we should all take heart and relax. (Yeah,yeah..relax?!) I'll be checking every day, but I'm ready to wait it out. Whatever will be, will be.

"Don't spend all your time looking around for something you want that can't be found. When you find out you can live without it and go along not thinking about it, I'll tell you something true. The bear necessities of life will come to you."

 

[verlee]

I agree that they haven't flooded the market with ads right now about promos. But I will tell you they have teamed up with Verizon on their Mobile Magic app, but thats another story. However, do they really have any control over when Travel Channel airs a show? I would have thought that would have been Travel Channel decision not Disney.....on the other side of that however, doesn't the Visa Kids Free offer end around the 14? Hmmmmm makes me wonder. If you think that Disney has some control that could be considered advertising. And that might be a pretty good time to air some commercials with smiling families and laughing kids. I know that I have been keeping up with the TV shows and they really don't have alot of them out. I use this website though (I hope this is okay as far as I know its just a Disney addict like ourselves!) http://www.bartlett-sloan.net/tv/agenda.php3?modeagenda=soon to see what I need to DVR. I would think that the perfect time to air promos would be when people are watching shows like Disney on a Dime and Behind the Scene. I know that is one reason we planned our first trip last year. We were watching some of the shows on Travel Channel and had been talking about taking a trip and then they started showing the promo for Buy 4 Get 3 Free. We did the pricing and booked. And now here I am....still addicted but not wanting to go again at the beginning of June! Makes 'cents' to me!

I don't know the exact arrangment but at the very least,I do think Disney asks the travel channel to air shows at specific times. Every year shows air heavily at the same time.

 

[DaniB]

Just by way of math..

Two parents. One child 13 and one child 8.

Free dining represents a 'discount' of $127 per day for this family.. And a 'comes straight out of the profits' for Disney of the same amount.

For a 7 day trip -- that's $889 ..

Now that kind of discount sorta works for the Deluxe hotels.

But for the values and the mods - they are losing money unless y'all go nuts on souvenirs, trinkets and treats not on the DDP. And losing it in a place with poor profit margins for the most part anyway - restaurants.

Just something to noodle on.

Ahh, see - that's why I'm wishing so hard for FD. While we will have enough to pay for the trip, reg DP, passports, air fare, etc - I am worried about how much spending money leftover we will have. And with 2 kids and our first vacation anywhere - I KNOW we'll want to spend.

If FD is offered - we can use the $965 savings (for us) on souvenirs, trinkets, treats, etc!!

But.. we'll see what happens.

 

[Don Disney]

Everyone just remember-WE are an extremely small amount of people who are"obssessed" with WDW planning and the like.The general population has'nt got a clue about "booking ahead" hoping for the next promotion etc...So,I don't think there will be any"skewing" of the occupancy numbers that will have the effect that some on here are"predicting"-shrinking the number of rooms available for the next promotion-FD,or whatever! ALL of us here on the DIS could book rooms wherever,and really have minimal effect on the TOTAL number of rooms available at ANY given time.We are a GREAT minority,NOT majority!!!

 

[sdmom]

We are going back to Florida in August, (planning for 22-27 @ WDW after 4 days at Hard Rock) to check out WWoHP.

We spent a week @ AKL in Feb and enjoyed the benefit of the 4/3 promo. We would not return to WDW a second time this year if not for WWoHP so, in some cases Disney benefits from WWoHP, (blasphemy, I know).

I was planning for last week of Aug at WDW since I read many times on these boards that "the first week of free dining is crazy busy". Now, if free dining is not offered and the "new" summer promo is great, I guess I should move our dates up to early August. Kids start school on 30.Aug. We are not target audience for DP since we are not good @ planning meals so far in advance.

Just to calm my nerves I booked the Dolphin 1/2 price suites deal from the link on this board. I tried to rent DVC points, but it seems there is no availability during late Aug.

Lets see what the next week holds.

 

[CanadianGuy]

Everyone just remember-WE are an extremely small amount of people who are"obssessed" with WDW planning and the like.The general population has'nt got a clue about "booking ahead" hoping for the next promotion etc...So,I don't think there will be any"skewing" of the occupancy numbers that will have the effect that some on here are"predicting"-shrinking the number of rooms available for the next promotion-FD,or whatever! ALL of us here on the DIS could book rooms wherever,and really have minimal effect on the TOTAL number of rooms available at ANY given time.We are a GREAT minority,NOT majority!!!

Don.. I'd agree with you if "all rooms" at WDW were available on any given promo. It's not. We've been tossing out numbers like 25% of non-booked rooms.. but it may even be less than that.

And I'd agree with you.. if I hadn't seen - year after year - everybody complaining about zero F/D availability at Pop Century (or a couple of other favorites that experienced heavy pre-book) .. and grumbling over having to switch resorts, change dates, switch ADRs and the rest of it.

And yet again =-> I'd agree with you if it gave ANY benefit to the person booking now.

It guarantees the person making the booking absolutely NOTHING. It does guarantee Disney an interest free loan of the money you put on deposit. So that's kinda good I guess... for them.

There is NO net gain for the person making the booking. There is in their head.. but not in reality.

So.. when you know all that..

1. Limited rooms on a promo
2. Booking now reduces the limited rooms further (even if just by 1)
3. Booking now guarantees you nothing.
4. It increases call center costs with zero benefit to you the consumer.

Why bother?

---

ALL of us here on the DIS could book rooms wherever,and really have minimal effect on the TOTAL number of rooms available at ANY given time.We are a GREAT minority,NOT majority!!!

PS> "All of us here on the DIS" is over a quarter million people. If we all booked 6 night stays.. We'd tie up every room (resort, villa, suite etc) for 60 days straight.. And that is presuming nobody cared about the exact dates of their travel. Trust me.. it only takes a couple of thousand people .. booking 5 and 6 nights stay to tie up a LOT of room inventory. When you factor in limited rooms and such.. it DOES impact operations.. call center costs and ultimately room availability.