Can someone explain to me how this line of thinking works? I see it quite a bit and I can't quite wrap my head around it.
Are we saying when Mine Train opens for instance fewer people will want to ride space mountain so some of the people that would have waited in line at Space will ride at Mine Train instead? Does that assume a constant crowd level? If the new attraction attracts more people doesn't that increase all lines?
Are we saying that it only applies with the park at maximum capacity and that the construction to build the new attraction or area did not impact the capacity figure?
If it is just redistributing people to more attractions in the parks to lower lines how does that help Disney make more money?
There are several ways to reduce line length that Disney could have utilised imo.
1)
Build more rides. Yes in the short term this might result in an increase in guests interested purely in that attraction, like TSMM or HP at Universal. However, all those guests in that line free up space in others. People go home saying "wow was that *insert ride* popular, but we got on a lot of others." People do it here on the Dis, for example.
Moreover, this new ride would split demand with the previous ride. A popular new ride at DHS would split guests a little more. One at Epcot might split guests 3 ways instead of 2. (I consider test track and soarin' to be the more popular rides, otherwise its more a 4 instead of 3 way split.
Not only this, but over time the demand for that attraction will begin to settle and it will function much like other rides do now, as a "spillway" for guests, and a backup in case the next headliner rides do get too busy to use.
2)
Make rides high capacity. This will minimise impact of any short term increase in lines at this ride, and get guests out into the giftshops better. Win win.
3)
Reduce downtime for rides with more maintenance and refurbs. Just 10% of that 1BN investment spent on the key rides that often go down would have help this somewhat, and if they had spent half a billion on this, the effect I think would be noticeable.
4)
Create new shopping areas etc, which would also net more money, at least in theory. At Seaworld they introduced the new waterfront, and it definitely helped to take demand off other areas of the park imo. Universal has Citywalk. Yes Disney has DTD, but its a little out of the way.
5)
Create entirely new lands. Not only would these include rides, shops, and places to eat that would soak up guests in the long run and provide extra revenue (again, a short term increase in guests would be inevitable, but that didn't and doesn't stop people from turning up at Universal for Harry Potter and throwing money at them) but you can include more paths, more places to rest and wander. A new land at Epcot for example could take a number of guests out of the other lands, easing pressure.
They went for this new system. It might have more impact at reducing lines, but given that they are A) expanding Fastpass locations, B) increasing use of said fastpass to lots more people, and C) tests say it doesn't help some attractions, I doubt it.