FP+ "day of" speculation

[johde]

I'm not in the no advanced booking for off site guests yet. I'm also not completely ruling it out either. Assuming this is still a test as Disney is saying, and not a staged roll out of the final system. The way I see it, Disney is going to want/need 2 systems for FP+. The first system is the one that onsite guests have been using and testing where people create an account online and can setup FP's in advance. The second system is the one that people buying tickets at the gate will use. I could be wrong, but I don't think Disney wants to take the time to setup a full blown MDE account for every 1 day ticket that gets sold. This is the system I think all offsite guests are currently testing at AK and shortly at MK. A system where you don't need to setup a username and password.

The big question going forward is what events move your ticket from being same day only to prebooking eligible. Looking at the current threads, making and keeping a reservation with tickets linked to your MDE account currently. Canceling the reservation move the ticket back out of prebook status. It also doesn't seem to matter if it's a MYW or AP. For the duration of reservation prebooking can be made 60+10, after the reservation it reverts to 60 days. My thought is once Disney has fully tested the "same day only" they will open up some form of prebooking/nonkiosk booking to offsite guests. There are at least a few forms this could take.

1. Once a ticket is purchased and linked to a MDE account the the ticket can be used to make FP+ reservations "X" number of days in advance up to the limits of the tickets.

2. Adding the secondary requirement that the ticket be used at least 1 on WDW property before prebooking opens up. In essence, on arrival day you can make FP+ reservation from that day going forwards.

Then, if a ticket never get's attached to a particular MDE account, the ticket will use the system currently being tested by offsite guests.

Part of my thoughts around this theory looking at how the large scale testing is progressing. DAK tested first. It is the park with the smallest average attendance. They started 2 slow days prior one of the busiest time of the years and used an army of Ipod wielding CM to supplement the installed Kiosk Base. The MK test on the other hand is starting during one of the slowest times of the year with 2 predicted heavy days coming up in MLK weekend. Again, assuming tests, all of AK Christmas to New Years, and MK on a slow day, could be good surrogates for people needing to use kiosks in the summer because they hadn't done any preplanning.

I had read NYE can run as high as 80,000 people in attendance. The average for the MK is about 48,000. If even half of NYE attendance was was offsite, that's 40,000 people who would "need" to make FP+ reservation each at MK and Epcot. If there were 100 machines in the park and it took even 1 minute to make your selections it would take nearly 7 hours to get all offsite guests their FP+'s. Disney need people using their smartphones, tablets, and computers to make most of their FP+. The army of Ipod wielding CM is only going to be around for the test and extremely busy times of the years.

 

[HockeyMomNH]

Hey! I just wanted to tell you that your cakes are beautiful! Wish you lived close to me!!

Thanks!

From Disney's perspective, on-site guests are pretty much locked in to park attendance.

By sheer definition, off-site guests enjoy the flexibility of deciding whether they will go to a Disney park that day or not. They have wheels.

I don't see Disney giving off-site guests information that might result in their deciding not to go to a park that day, such as the availability of FP's.

Rather, let's get those guests into the park first and THEN let them see availability.

That's why I don't believe off-site guests (not AP holders, that is a different group) will ever be able to reserve FP's in advance of actual park entry.

Interesting perspective. I had not thought about it that way either.

I think that the thing that we are forgetting is that most visitors have no idea about FP and how to use it. How many times have you gotten evil stares from people as you walk through the fast pass lines? I know for us it happens often. So, for those people, if they even bother to figure out how to use it, it will be a cool new perk. I also think that lots of people won't bother with the new system. The technology is just too cumbersome. If you are not tech savy, or if you don't have a smart phone, it's just not going to be that much use.

 

[ArwenMarie]

During very very busy weeks, there won't be much to pick from at the same-day kiosks. But these are the days where there are 200 minute waits, so not unexpected. Those are the weeks where being an onsite customer will be a big perk.

I think for some rides, (Soarin, TSMM, etc), being an onsite customer will also be a major perk, even on less crowded days.

I think the strategy for non-AP offsite customers will be to visit at low-crowd times and make rope drop at the non-EMH parks. And this isn't a bad outcome for Disney...Sure, come, but if you could come at the less busy times, that would be great.

I am still wondering how they are going to deal with APs without a resort stay.

The big question will be how they handle the 7DMT.

 

[ArwenMarie]

From Disney's perspective, on-site guests are pretty much locked in to park attendance.

By sheer definition, off-site guests enjoy the flexibility of deciding whether they will go to a Disney park that day or not. They have wheels.

I don't see Disney giving off-site guests information that might result in their deciding not to go to a park that day, such as the availability of FP's.

Rather, let's get those guests into the park first and THEN let them see availability.

That's why I don't believe off-site guests (not AP holders, that is a different group) will ever be able to reserve FP's in advance of actual park entry.

Good points.

I think that what we see with the kiosks for same-day is what it's going to be. I can't see that they would be going through all of this trouble only to move everyone to prebooking.

Interesting take on what actually locks people in....

In the end, the main goal of all of this will be to make sure that customers book room stays, get the ride schedules they want, and pay their big payment at 45 days.

 

[johde]

During very very busy weeks, there won't be much to pick from at the same-day kiosks. But these are the days where there are 200 minute waits, so not unexpected. Those are the weeks where being an onsite customer will be a big perk.

The big question will be how they handle the 7DMT.

That is probably fairly true for the very very busy days especially if offsite gets some sort of prebooking. That being said, with tiering most of the year has plenty of capacity to give everyone RnR or TSMM at Epcot and TT or Soarin' at Epcot. The thing is, on a very very busy day you can save significant time in the less desirable tier 1 and tier 2 rides. 2012, I arrived in Florida in the afternoon of NYE. I waited 30-40 minutes for Imagination and Nemo, and Maelstrom was over an hour. Even getting blocked out of the "headliners" I could have saved 2 hours in line that evening with FP+. Add to that, given the crowds, I could see illuminations being a "hot" FP+

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

But if they haven't yet used them, they can do so at any time in the future... years into the future.

I believe the biggest portion of people wouldn't spend addition money on other tickets after buying Disney tickets. I would think that if they have spent the money on Disney tickets before they get to Orlando, then they will be going to Disney. But letting them pre-book, even 30 days in advance, would keep them from feeling like second class citizens even if there is limited choices. It would make those days seem even more important when they see that the times are limited. So then they go home and tell all their friends that they need to get their tickets early so and pre-book some FP+s because the times are limited.

 

[momof2n2]

It could also hurt ticket sales if those off-site guests knew before they entered the park that there was no more TSM FP availability for that day.

I understand that Disney may "hold back" some FP's for such circumstances, but then maybe the off-site guest decides the available times don't work for them? Like maybe they are all in the afternoon (an advantage for on-site guests) but that isn't perceived as an advantage by the off-site day guest so they head to US instead?

That's why I think it is advantageous for Disney to leave those guests in the dark until they enter the park.

Ya know... this sounded so familiar to me I looked for the threads I started and found this one from JULY ...
musing UT tickets, FP+ and touring plans...

It's a tricky spot, though.
Will I go at all if I CAN'T find out if I can get my rides w/o standby?

Honestly... this whole thing is a wonderful study in human behavior, etc.
I can't help but shake my head at the fact that I am even still considering going. That I have started to think, "Well, if I can get my FP+ for TSMM ahead of time, maybe we will have a good day." When 8 months ago I was just absorbing the fact that I couldn't get three FP for the same ride anymore. Like I've ALREADY lowered my expectations.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

It could also hurt ticket sales if those off-site guests knew before they entered the park that there was no more TSM FP availability for that day.

But I just realized, they have no way of knowing until they buy a ticket and enter it online. You can't see any FP+s until you have an online account set up AND enter ticket info. SO, they have them locked in with early ticket sales because I don't believe many families would spend the amount it cost to purchase Disney tickets to only put them aside. Every family only has so much to spend on vacation.

 

[Laketravis]

Wow! I got to the second post of that thread and saw what you were talking about. How bizarre, huh?

But I just realized, they have no way of knowing until they buy a ticket and enter it online. You can't see any FP+s until you have an online account set up AND enter ticket info. SO, they have them locked in with early ticket sales because I don't believe many families would spend the amount it cost to purchase Disney tickets to only put them aside. Every family only has so much to spend on vacation.

True. But I was thinking more about the people who buy tickets at the gate on the day of their visit.

If they were somehow able to pull up and check FP availability (or lack of), they may decide not to go. That is the group I'm very confident would never be given the opportunity to schedule FP before they got in the park.

And I was surprised to learn just how big that group is!

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

Wow! I got to the second post of that thread and saw what you were talking about. How bizarre, huh?



True. But I was thinking more about the people who buy tickets at the gate on the day of their visit.

If they were somehow able to pull up and check FP availability (or lack of), they may decide not to go. That is the group I'm very confident would never be given the opportunity to schedule FP before they got in the park.

And I was surprised to learn just how big that group is!

I understand what you are saying but how will they ever know? At this time, I don't see it changing, you MUST have a ticket to see FP+ availability. Disney already has your money.

 

[Tink-n-Belle]

Does anyone know how many legacy FP were given in a day?

I can't use the prebooking bacause, I'm traveling with 3 different families and we are not buying ticket prior. Plus I'm getting an annual pass...so that will limit me too?

I think having a central location to get FP is so much better than run to Each ride, send DH to Soarin while we go on TT.

One thing is encouraging was the post of family there Xmas week and they could get FP's with both systems up and running.

Let's see what happens on JAN 14 at MK....

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

And here is the kicker. From my understanding, Disney packages are fully refundable up to a certain date and even partially refunded after that date. But off-siters that purchase tickets in advance to pre-book FP+ (if it is ever possible), don't like your FP+ choice, tough cookie!! Tickets are not refundable.

 

[johde]

Honestly... this whole thing is a wonderful study in human behavior, etc.
I can't help but shake my head at the fact that I am even still considering going. That I have started to think, "Well, if I can get my FP+ for TSMM ahead of time, maybe we will have a good day." When 8 months ago I was just absorbing the fact that I couldn't get three FP for the same ride anymore. Like I've ALREADY lowered my expectations.

Every individual is different but, if you look just up the road. Most of the people walking through the gates that Universal "know" they are never going to set foot in an express pass line. In general, Universal's guest fall into one of four categories.

1. Guest who know they get to skip every line. (People staying onsite in the deluxe hotels, people who advanced purchased special tickets and locked in their dates, and premium AP holders after 4 p.m.)

2. People who see how busy the park is before deciding to pay to skip each line 1 time.

3. People who weren't planning on express passes but after waiting in extremely long lines break down and buy a pass to skip each line 1 time.

4. People who never intended to buy an express pass or went to buy an express pass and they were sold out.

The largest group of visitors are probably in group 4. They go when it't not busy when express pass isn't needed, or when the parks are busy they their get priced out of the market or find out express passes are sold out.

This is by design. If too many people have access to the express line it's not very express any more. Universal model, as well as most other theme parks, is all the benefits get doled out to the privileged few. Everyone else waits in the lines all day. Universal is enjoying record attendance, so one could say, if you build something people feel is worth the wait they'll come. If the average customer doesn't feel the price and wait are worth the experience they won't.

 

[Wood Nymph]

As for the onsite/offsite guest 'tiers', let me play Devil's advocate for a moment. Let's say they Disney increases the perks for onsite guests significantly, to the point where an offsite guest's experience is significantly diminished. What will happen? Either more people will want to stay onsite (win for Disney, with higher occupancy rates and room rates) or the people who cannot/refuse to stay onsite will not come to the parks. Let's take this to the extreme. Suppose 100% of the guests came from the current onsite hotels. This would mean that the total number of people visiting WDW would be roughly half of what it is now. The people who visit would experience significantly fewer waits, and get to ride many more rides, FP+ notwithstanding. They would have a better time, and want to come back more often. With such fabulous visitor experiences, all Disney would have to do is raise their resort rates. Fewer customers to service, but those customers would pay a hefty increase in room rates, which would essentially be all profit for the Mouse. I don't think this is completely impossible.

Thoughts?

I think that you make a very good point. There is much more profit for Disney with onsite guests then off site ones. And because the on site guests are the preferred audience, there is really no reason at all to allow off site guests to pre-book fp+. Even right now people are thinking about booking a Disney resort instead of staying off site just so they can have MB's and the ability to pre-book fp+. It seems like Disney's roll out has not hurt the resort occupancy rates at all.

 

[Laketravis]

I understand what you are saying but how will they ever know? At this time, I don't see it changing, you MUST have a ticket to see FP+ availability. Disney already has your money.

Oh, okay..yes I see your point. Hmmm........

And here is the kicker. From my understanding, Disney packages are fully refundable up to a certain date and even partially refunded after that date. But off-siters that purchase tickets in advance to pre-book FP+ (if it is ever possible), don't like your FP+ choice, tough cookie!! Tickets are not refundable.

So, you have to have your tickets before you can schedule FP. If you purchase tickets but aren't staying on-site, you can't get a refund on their tickets. Got it. So it wouldn't matter if they can pull up FP ahead of time and see that the only thing left is Captain EO, Figment, and Illuminations on the day they want to go to Epcot, because there is nothing they can do about it.

Other than the negative impression made, it didn't matter that they could prebook.

Well thanks for shooting holes all over my theory!

But here's what is interesting - the AK "test" started out with no ability to pre-book FP for offsite guests, right? And it is still that way, and so far from what we've seen of these "Tests" the major components have not been changed. 3 is still 3, same park is still same park, in fact in some cases it's only become more restrictive (tiering).

Now they are moving on to MK and the AK conditions are still the same they were on the first day of the test. Hmmm.... I'm inclined to believe that off-site guests will not be able to pre-book based on the current and coming conditions of the first two park roll outs.

 

[magicbob]

I believe the biggest portion of people wouldn't spend addition money on other tickets after buying Disney tickets. I would think that if they have spent the money on Disney tickets before they get to Orlando, then they will be going to Disney. But letting them pre-book, even 30 days in advance, would keep them from feeling like second class citizens even if there is limited choices. It would make those days seem even more important when they see that the times are limited. So then they go home and tell all their friends that they need to get their tickets early so and pre-book some FP+s because the times are limited.

But I just realized, they have no way of knowing until they buy a ticket and enter it online. You can't see any FP+s until you have an online account set up AND enter ticket info. SO, they have them locked in with early ticket sales because I don't believe many families would spend the amount it cost to purchase Disney tickets to only put them aside. Every family only has so much to spend on vacation.

I understand what you are saying but how will they ever know? At this time, I don't see it changing, you MUST have a ticket to see FP+ availability. Disney already has your money.

This pretty much goes along with what I've thought concerning the goal of "locking guests in." Get them to purchase tickets early so that they are eligible to book FP+. Until recently, I've always been under the impression that they wanted off-site to be able to pre-book as well, because that meant they already had their tickets purchased AND had a reservation in a Disney park. That's pretty strong motivation to keep those plans to attend Disney and not decide that morning to go somewhere else (one of the primary stated goals of the MM/FP+ program).

The great unknown still remains... IF they do open pre-booking to ALL ticket holders (both on and off site), will availability be as slim as I initially predicted, maybe even selling out at the 60 or 45 or 30 day mark for popular attractions?

 

[dayvewc]

Oh, okay..yes I see your point. Hmmm........

So, you have to have your tickets before you can schedule FP. If you purchase tickets but aren't staying on-site, you can't get a refund on their tickets. Got it. So it wouldn't matter if they can pull up FP ahead of time and see that the only thing left is Captain EO, Figment, and Illuminations on the day they want to go to Epcot, because there is nothing they can do about it.

Other than the negative impression made, it didn't matter that they could prebook.

Well thanks for shooting holes all over my theory!

But here's what is interesting - the AK "test" started out with no ability to pre-book FP for offsite guests, right? And it is still that way, and so far from what we've seen of these "Tests" the major components have not been changed. 3 is still 3, same park is still same park, in fact in some cases it's only become more restrictive (tiering).

Now they are moving on to MK and the AK conditions are still the same they were on the first day of the test. Hmmm.... I'm inclined to believe that off-site guests will not be able to pre-book based on the current and coming conditions of the first two park roll outs.

I think a big part of the reason there is no pre booking for off site at AK and soon at MK is that the "switch" to do so on MDE is an all-or-nothing. I don't see Disney paying for the IT to allow selective Park pre booking, so it won't be accessible to off-site guests until all parks are legacy free.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

Oh, okay..yes I see your point. Hmmm........



So, you have to have your tickets before you can schedule FP. If you purchase tickets but aren't staying on-site, you can't get a refund on their tickets. Got it. So it wouldn't matter if they can pull up FP ahead of time and see that the only thing left is Captain EO, Figment, and Illuminations on the day they want to go to Epcot, because there is nothing they can do about it.

Other than the negative impression made, it didn't matter that they could prebook.

Well thanks for shooting holes all over my theory! So sorry.

But here's what is interesting - the AK "test" started out with no ability to pre-book FP for offsite guests, right? And it is still that way, and so far from what we've seen of these "Tests" the major components have not been changed. 3 is still 3, same park is still same park, in fact in some cases it's only become more restrictive (tiering).

Now they are moving on to MK and the AK conditions are still the same they were on the first day of the test. Hmmm.... I'm inclined to believe that off-site guests will not be able to pre-book based on the current and coming conditions of the first two park roll outs.

I think there is a good chance that this is the way things would be. But I also think there is a chance that it would be just to confusing to have off-siters able to pre-book some parks and not others. So there still is a chance that once all FP machines are covered, some form of pre-booking may be offered to off-siters. Remember, Disney has said they want to lock people in to their parks before they ever leave their house. Those that stay on-site are pretty locked in already so it would seem with this statement that they are going after those that stay off-site.

 

[momof2n2]

I think there is a good chance that this is the way things would be. But I also think there is a chance that it would be just to confusing to have off-siters able to pre-book some parks and not others. So there still is a chance that once all FP machines are covered, some form of pre-booking may be offered to off-siters. Remember, Disney has said they want to lock people in to their parks before they ever leave their house. Those that stay on-site are pretty locked in already so it would seem with this statement that they are going after those that stay off-site.

So talk about a gamble...
I have to drop the cash upfront to even find out if I can get my rides.
Who likened this to Russian Roulette a few weeks back?...

 

[Wood Nymph]

And here is the kicker. From my understanding, Disney packages are fully refundable up to a certain date and even partially refunded after that date. But off-siters that purchase tickets in advance to pre-book FP+ (if it is ever possible), don't like your FP+ choice, tough cookie!! Tickets are not refundable.

1. You don't have to buy a package, you can buy a room only and purchase tickets without making it a package. That will be fully refundable up to five days before check in. You can add dining up to one week ahead of time without incurring any additional fees. And if someone cancels a trip just because they can't get TSMM at 2 pm on the second day of their trip, then that is just sad.

2. During the busiest time of the year when all the resort guests were able to book fp+'s in advance, there was still plenty of availability. I think predicting the future based on what has happened in the past is the best way to look at it.

3. There isn't a mechanism in place for offsite guests to pre-book fp+. There is no monetary incentive for Disney to allow offsite guests to pre-book. And the logistics nightmare of adding tens of thousands of people onto their already overloaded MDE website is enough to keep offsite guests out of the system.

I can't really see the doom and gloom predictions coming true. And if people decide not to go to WDW because they can't ride Space Mountain eight times in a row, then that's fine. People get burned out of the Disney experience all the time. This is nothing new. There is always someone to take their place. And if park attendance drops, then Disney will respond with discounts.