FP+ "day of" speculation

[magicbob]

The problem Disney runs into is if at 46 days out, there aren't the FP+ reservations an onsite guest wants, they're much more likely to cancel their package.

But this is what keeps coming back to me. Disney stated that the goal of this new program was to get guest locked into parks weeks before they ever reach Orlando so as not to be pulled into other attractions around town. It would seem that this statement is geared even more towards those that stay off-site compared to those that stay on-site. I hear so often how one of the perks of staying on-site is that they will pick you up at the airport and/or you never have to get in your car again after you get to your resort. Aren't those guest already locked into to Disney? It is all those off-site guest wandering around Orlando getting swayed by all that wicked advertisements they have to worry about. Not being able to get FP+ until they step inside the gate isn't locking them into anything!

Good points. This is one of the reasons I think "holding back" availability could end up shooting themselves in the foot.

I'm just playing devil's advocate here... I have not played with MDE enough to know what is possible either. Nor do I really have any inclination to do so.

I don't remember what Disney said about prebooking exactly in the past either. I remember reading the terms of use when the app was first released. Although, prebooking could just mean booking FP in the morning day-of. It is still an "upgrade" from the old FP where you just go to the ride and get what time you are given.

Actually, if the park was not overly busy, and the technology worked quickly and accurately, this would be a real upgrade.

I agree that comparing one individual FP- to one individual FP+ slot, it could be considered an upgrade because the latter can be pre-booked for a specific time from a convenient location with no waiting period before the next can be reserved. But for some people, the FP+ system overall is not an upgrade compared to the FP- system overall due to the constraints and limitations (max of 3, tiering, etc.) of the FP+ system.

As far as off-site guests go, I don't think that they will be able to pre-book fp+'s. The speculation that there won't be any fp+'s available when they walk in the park doesn't seem like a likely event to me, since we already know for a fact that during the busiest time of the year the resort guests had not taken all the fp+ slots by the time the park opened. Since there will no longer by fp- there will be more slots for fp+.

If we assume that only resort guests can pre-book, then we have already experienced the maximum number of people who are eligible to pre-book. The resorts were full at Christmas, all resort guests were able to pre-book, and there was still availability during the day. There is not going to be another time when more people are eligible to pre-book, unless of course off site guests get added.

I agree. I think that there will probably be FP+ availability on the "day of" as long as off-site cannot pre-book. My predictions of FP+ slots running out long before the "day of" were based on the assumption that ALL guests (on-site and off-site) would have the ability to pre-book. If that does happen in the future, I still think you will see a BIG problem with availability that event tiering won't be able to solve.

 

[catra121]

I have always thought that pre-booking FP+ would be an onsite perk and that off site guests would be able to book day of. I think this HAS to be the case because if onsite AND offsite could all pre-book...FP+ slots would run out. There will be PLENTY of day of availability (in my opinion) if pre-booking is limited to onsite guests.

Especially when you consider that many people still won't WANT to pre-book...that many people won't KNOW they can pre-book...that many people even if they do pre-book won't know which rides are important as far as FP+ goes...many people won't know what TIMES are important for FP+...and that many people will book, change, and change again x100 by the time their trip actually starts, etc. So even among your onsite guests you will have many that just won't use the system or won't use it to its full advantage leaving plenty of good slots for day of guests.

And as for onsite vs offsite playing a more significant part in people's touring strategies...it probably will but not much more than it already does. You already see people wanting to book empty rooms that they will not use just to be part of the system...but people have already done that to get free dining, magical express, and use of EMH in the past (why...I have no idea...but to each their own). As far as the decision to stay onsite vs offsite...it's like any other perk. I am a HUGE fan of onsite for many reasons...but for people who just don't think onsite works for them I don't think this new system will sway them to onsite...especially if there's day of availability for FP+. I don't think the extra benefit of pre-booking will entice them to stay onsite any more than the other onsite perks...and many actually see the idea of pre-booking as a big negative (not me...I loved it...but many others).

I look forward to seeing how this all rolls out. I think once they get rid of paper FP that things will work even better than they have during the test (and I think they worked great). Trying to use the two systems at once has been difficult and it makes it impossible for people to really judge the system as it will be after full roll out. That's in large part due to Disney being so tight about the details...but I think they've made changes and adjustments along the way (and still might) so they don't want to give out too many details about the end game for this as it still may be changes as things go on. I hate not knowing...but would hate it even more if they said it will be like this...and then all of a sudden things change. That would be more frustrating in my opinion. Makes it hard to plan now...but it would be worse if I MADE the plans and then had to change them all around (or was locked into them) because Disney decided to change it up. Not everyone will agree...but that's the way I see it. I think they needed information from these "tests" in order to get a real idea on how this would work in the "real world"...some things look great on paper but until it's tested you have no idea on how well it will ACTUALLY work...and they need the flexibility to adjust.

 

[HockeyMomNH]

I agree that comparing one individual FP- to one individual FP+ slot, it could be considered an upgrade because the latter can be pre-booked for a specific time from a convenient location with no waiting period before the next can be reserved. But for some people, the FP+ system overall is not an upgrade compared to the FP- system overall due to the constraints and limitations (max of 3, tiering, etc.) of the FP+ system.

I personally don't think that it is an upgrade at all... not for my family's way of touring. I can see how Disney can spin it as an upgrade though.

 

[LisaTC]

I have always thought that pre-booking FP+ would be an onsite perk and that off site guests would be able to book day of. I think this HAS to be the case because if onsite AND offsite could all pre-book...FP+ slots would run out. There will be PLENTY of day of availability (in my opinion) if pre-booking is limited to onsite guests.

Especially when you consider that many people still won't WANT to pre-book...that many people won't KNOW they can pre-book...that many people even if they do pre-book won't know which rides are important as far as FP+ goes...many people won't know what TIMES are important for FP+...and that many people will book, change, and change again x100 by the time their trip actually starts, etc. So even among your onsite guests you will have many that just won't use the system or won't use it to its full advantage leaving plenty of good slots for day of guests.

And as for onsite vs offsite playing a more significant part in people's touring strategies...it probably will but not much more than it already does. You already see people wanting to book empty rooms that they will not use just to be part of the system...but people have already done that to get free dining, magical express, and use of EMH in the past (why...I have no idea...but to each their own). As far as the decision to stay onsite vs offsite...it's like any other perk. I am a HUGE fan of onsite for many reasons...but for people who just don't think onsite works for them I don't think this new system will sway them to onsite...especially if there's day of availability for FP+. I don't think the extra benefit of pre-booking will entice them to stay onsite any more than the other onsite perks...and many actually see the idea of pre-booking as a big negative (not me...I loved it...but many others).

I look forward to seeing how this all rolls out. I think once they get rid of paper FP that things will work even better than they have during the test (and I think they worked great). Trying to use the two systems at once has been difficult and it makes it impossible for people to really judge the system as it will be after full roll out. That's in large part due to Disney being so tight about the details...but I think they've made changes and adjustments along the way (and still might) so they don't want to give out too many details about the end game for this as it still may be changes as things go on. I hate not knowing...but would hate it even more if they said it will be like this...and then all of a sudden things change. That would be more frustrating in my opinion. Makes it hard to plan now...but it would be worse if I MADE the plans and then had to change them all around (or was locked into them) because Disney decided to change it up. Not everyone will agree...but that's the way I see it. I think they needed information from these "tests" in order to get a real idea on how this would work in the "real world"...some things look great on paper but until it's tested you have no idea on how well it will ACTUALLY work...and they need the flexibility to adjust.

This is a very cogent and astute post. I stay onsite because of the other perks of EMH, DME, etc. I had no expectation when this rollout was announced that this was just nothing other than another onsite perk. Universal does this, so it's really no big surprise. They have a similar, albeit, unlimited system and not just 3 rides/attractions, which is the unfortunate piece of this for our family. Yes, we were rope droppers and we used lots of legacy FP/day and rode like fiends with little waits. Those days are likely over for us at Disney. Will we still go, yes, because we like Disney and not just the rides. I don't see it as anything other than an onsite perk and keeping people at the World. However, let's hurry up already, dive in, get it done.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

I think what Disney is trying to get out of this system would give ideas about what may happen. The idea that Disney wants to lock people into parks so they will be less likely to go anywhere else makes sense. What I don't think that makes a lot of sense is the idea that Disney is trying to spread the wealth around. We talk about how so many didn't know how paper FPs worked and didn't use them and that most of those were the once or twice in a life time guest. We have talked about how this system seems to benefit those and/or seem like a big perk for those guest. We have talked about that Disney isn't concerned or isn't making much from all us repeat guest. And we have talked about how us repeat guest are not the ones (as a group) that see this new system as a bug plus. So why would Disney be so worried about spreading the wealth to those one and done guests. They are one and done. Spreading the wealth doesn't make as much business sense as locking guest into their parks before they ever step a foot out of their house. And I say again, off-siters not being to pre-book anything before stepping through the gate will not lock them into anything! In fact, after too many of those get home and post of facebook what a pain it was to be there when the park opened and then having to spend 30 to 45 minutes booking FP+s would not be good PR. It just does not make sense to completely lock off-site guests out of any pre-book. Disney needs to keep off-site guest happy too. There are many that can't afford to stay on-site and there are many that will not stay on-site. If Disney didn't need their park ticket money too then they could just make the parks for resort guest ONLY. Just like Great Wolf Lodge's resorts. The only way to use the water park is to stay in their resort.

I have no idea what is coming but it seems to me that only offering off-site guest day of booking has a chance of hurting their ticket sales.

 

[Sammie]

I have a reputation as a "doom & gloom" naysayer where FP+ is concerned. That said, I hope this topic will get some civil discussion (even if we disagree).

So, the recent AK "testing" has me thinking that I may have been wrong (I know... hard to believe, right?) in previous predictions concerning availability of FP+ on the "day of."

For a long time, I have maintained that Disney would not "hold back" any FP+ slots for "day of" reservations. As a result, I predicted that "day of" would consist of a few leftover scraps because all of the most popular rides would be pre-booked.

So, it appears that there is at least some "day of" availability. But I don't think that's a result of Disney holding them back.

Here's my theory... Disney said that all guests would eventually have access to FP+. Many of us, myself included, interpreted this to mean that all guests would have the ability to pre-book.

Now it appears that off-site guests will be able to access FP+ on the "day of" but NOT pre-book. Being able to access FP+ on the "day of" even if you cannot pre-book is still technically FP+ access for all guests. However, since FP+ was pitched as "reserve your rides BEFORE you get to the park," I think it's a little disingenuous to play games with semantics.

I think this accounts for the "day of" availability. That's many thousands of off-site guests who I had predicted would be pre-booking their rides and using up all of the FP+ slots. But with off-site guests not eligible for pre-booking, there is apparently "day of" availability without needing to "hold back" any slots for that purpose.

This still leaves several questions unanswered. Among them are:

With as many resorts as Disney has, will on-site guests pre-booking their FP+ take up all of the available slots during busy times? If so, will off-site guests have any "day of" availability?

And do you think that off-site guests will eventually get to pre-book as I originally surmised? If so, how will this impact availability for "day of" FP+? Obviously, it will HAVE to reduce availability. But how much?

To a certain extent, staying on-site has always been part of some people's touring strategy (access to EMH, proximity of monorail/boardwalk resorts, etc.). Will FP+ eventually cause onsite vs. off-site to make a more significant impact on people's touring strategy?

Discuss.

Yes they hold back some availability. There is no indication that off site will get to pre-book that would defeat the perk of staying with Disney.

 

[magicbob]

Yes they hold back some availability. There is no indication that off site will get to pre-book that would defeat the perk of staying with Disney.

Not to sound argumentative, but could you cite your source for stating definitively that they ARE holding some back?

As someone just pointed out above... the point of FP+ is not to be a "perk" (other than calling it that for marketing reasons) but to "lock guests in" to Disney. They exclude off-site at their peril (I say this as someone who stays onsite). But I agree with what others have stated. IF off-site can pre-book, then HOW are they going to be able to handle that additional demand and still ensure "day of" availability without holding some back? But if they hold some back, do they risk people cancelling because they can't get the rides they want? Catch-22.

 

[HockeyMomNH]

Not to sound argumentative, but could you cite your source for stating definitively that they ARE holding some back?

As someone just pointed out above... the point of FP+ is not to be a "perk" (other than calling it that for marketing reasons) but to "lock guests in" to Disney. They exclude off-site at their peril (I say this as someone who stays onsite). But I agree with what others have stated. IF off-site can pre-book, then HOW are they going to be able to handle that additional demand and still ensure "day of" availability without holding some back? But if they hold some back, do they risk people cancelling because they can't get the rides they want? Catch-22.

They will start by overbooking, and then they will add a fee for booking, and then they will start charging for no shows... oh wait, that's the ADR system.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

They will start by overbooking, and then they will add a fee for booking, and then they will start charging for no shows... oh wait, that's the ADR system.

Hey! I just wanted to tell you that your cakes are beautiful! Wish you lived close to me!!

 

[Laketravis]

From Disney's perspective, on-site guests are pretty much locked in to park attendance.

By sheer definition, off-site guests enjoy the flexibility of deciding whether they will go to a Disney park that day or not. They have wheels.

I don't see Disney giving off-site guests information that might result in their deciding not to go to a park that day, such as the availability of FP's.

Rather, let's get those guests into the park first and THEN let them see availability.

That's why I don't believe off-site guests (not AP holders, that is a different group) will ever be able to reserve FP's in advance of actual park entry.

 

[practicallyperfect77]

I think what Disney is trying to get out of this system would give ideas about what may happen. The idea that Disney wants to lock people into parks so they will be less likely to go anywhere else makes sense. What I don't think that makes a lot of sense is the idea that Disney is trying to spread the wealth around. We talk about how so many didn't know how paper FPs worked and didn't use them and that most of those were the once or twice in a life time guest. We have talked about how this system seems to benefit those and/or seem like a big perk for those guest. We have talked about that Disney isn't concerned or isn't making much from all us repeat guest. And we have talked about how us repeat guest are not the ones (as a group) that see this new system as a bug plus. So why would Disney be so worried about spreading the wealth to those one and done guests. They are one and done. Spreading the wealth doesn't make as much business sense as locking guest into their parks before they ever step a foot out of their house. And I say again, off-siters not being to pre-book anything before stepping through the gate will not lock them into anything! In fact, after too many of those get home and post of facebook what a pain it was to be there when the park opened and then having to spend 30 to 45 minutes booking FP+s would not be good PR. It just does not make sense to completely lock off-site guests out of any pre-book. Disney needs to keep off-site guest happy too. There are many that can't afford to stay on-site and there are many that will not stay on-site. If Disney didn't need their park ticket money too then they could just make the parks for resort guest ONLY. Just like Great Wolf Lodge's resorts. The only way to use the water park is to stay in their resort.

I have no idea what is coming but it seems to me that only offering off-site guest day of booking has a chance of hurting their ticket sales.

I'm really hoping you are right and offsite does get to prebook. I can see there being a difference to onsite vs offsite, but I do hope that offsite is able to book in advance. I have read a few comments and I think either Josh or Kenny the Pirate has stated they tried to get a TSMM FP+ the day before and weren't able to do so, but tried the morning of and were able to. Now it could be a "blip in the system", but it sounded like to me some were being held back. Question for the folks there over Christmas and were able to change reservations - are you talking about big rides like Soarin' and TSMM or HM and Pirates. I love HM and Pirates, but there is definitely a difference in the FP availability of those rides. And what time too? I personally think day of FP+ availability will be there. I have my doubts if they will be available for Mine Train, Soarin', TSMM and I highly doubt any good times will be left too...by that I mean afternoon when the parks are busy.

 

[Laketravis]

I have no idea what is coming but it seems to me that only offering off-site guest day of booking has a chance of hurting their ticket sales.

It could also hurt ticket sales if those off-site guests knew before they entered the park that there was no more TSM FP availability for that day.

I understand that Disney may "hold back" some FP's for such circumstances, but then maybe the off-site guest decides the available times don't work for them? Like maybe they are all in the afternoon (an advantage for on-site guests) but that isn't perceived as an advantage by the off-site day guest so they head to US instead?

That's why I think it is advantageous for Disney to leave those guests in the dark until they enter the park.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

It could also hurt ticket sales if those off-site guests knew before they entered the park that there was no more TSM FP availability for that day.

I understand that Disney may "hold back" some FP's for such circumstances, but then maybe the off-site guest decides the available times don't work for them? Like maybe they are all in the afternoon (an advantage for on-site guests) but that isn't perceived as an advantage by the off-site day guest so they head to US instead?

That's why I think it is advantageous for Disney to leave those guests in the dark until they enter the park.

But how is this locking a guest in? Disney has stated that they want to lock guest into their parks so they won't go somewhere else. I get what you are saying and it makes sense but nothing about that will have someone that stay off-sites in a hurry to purchase tickets or lock them into doing a Disney park. Now they are more open to all the other draws in the area.

 

[Laketravis]

But how is this locking a guest in? Disney has stated that they want to lock guest into their parks so they won't go somewhere else. I get what you are saying and it makes sense but nothing about that will have someone that stay off-sites in a hurry to purchase tickets or lock them into doing a Disney park. Now they are more open to all the other draws in the area.

I think that to lock them in, you have to first get them in.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

Yes they hold back some availability. There is no indication that off site will get to pre-book that would defeat the perk of staying with Disney.

But Disney has stated that the system was made to be a perk. It was made to lock guest in to their parks so they will not want to visit other attractions in the area. Totally leave off-site guest out of pre-booking doesn't seem to match with this statement.

With Disney holding back availability. So you wouldn't be upset to be standing in a SB line with a family that stayed at the Motel 6 and was talking about getting a FP+ that morning for Soarin' around the time you wanted but wasn't available the night before? I can say that it would bother me.

 

[helenb]

Re: holding back FP+s... let's say Disney does this. What's to prevent onsite guests from checking FP+ availability on their Smartphones in the morning before the park opens? Whether they're in line, or at a character breakfast or still in bed in their pjs, onsite guests can use the MDE app to check that day's FP+ times *before the park opens*, thus snagging any 'held back' FP+. It seems like this would be the obvious loophole, unless they're going to tie FP+ to the location from which you obtain it (MDE app or onsite kiosks).

As for the onsite/offsite guest 'tiers', let me play Devil's advocate for a moment. Let's say they Disney increases the perks for onsite guests significantly, to the point where an offsite guest's experience is significantly diminished. What will happen? Either more people will want to stay onsite (win for Disney, with higher occupancy rates and room rates) or the people who cannot/refuse to stay onsite will not come to the parks. Let's take this to the extreme. Suppose 100% of the guests came from the current onsite hotels. This would mean that the total number of people visiting WDW would be roughly half of what it is now. The people who visit would experience significantly fewer waits, and get to ride many more rides, FP+ notwithstanding. They would have a better time, and want to come back more often. With such fabulous visitor experiences, all Disney would have to do is raise their resort rates. Fewer customers to service, but those customers would pay a hefty increase in room rates, which would essentially be all profit for the Mouse. I don't think this is completely impossible.

Thoughts?

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

I think that to lock them in, you have to first get them in.

But, if you allow them to pre-book, even 30 days ahead, you may get some that will purchase their tickets before they leave the house and kind of locking them in too. Before they get swayed by other things in Orlando. Most families don't have enough money to purchase tickets and not use them.

 

[helenb]

Most families don't have enough money to purchase tickets and not use them.

But if they haven't yet used them, they can do so at any time in the future... years into the future.

 

[mom2rtk]

From Disney's perspective, on-site guests are pretty much locked in to park attendance.

By sheer definition, off-site guests enjoy the flexibility of deciding whether they will go to a Disney park that day or not. They have wheels.

I don't see Disney giving off-site guests information that might result in their deciding not to go to a park that day, such as the availability of FP's.

Rather, let's get those guests into the park first and THEN let them see availability.

That's why I don't believe off-site guests (not AP holders, that is a different group) will ever be able to reserve FP's in advance of actual park entry.

That's a really interesting point I hadn't considered before. Hmmmmm........ sort of makes me look at it in an entirely different way.

But the flip side is what Missy brought up....... if I book a package and then find out I can't book what I want, I could cancel the entire package, and instead of just losing one day of park attendance, Disney could lose the whole ball of wax..... room, tickets, maybe dining.

 

[Laketravis]

But, if you allow them to pre-book, even 30 days ahead, you may get some that will purchase their tickets before they leave the house and kind of locking them in too. Before they get swayed by other things in Orlando. Most families don't have enough money to purchase tickets and not use them.

I suppose that could work. What none of us know is what FP availability might look like even at the 30 day mark if thousands of on-site guests are able to make reservations before that time. It could still prove to be a gamble for Disney to show an off-site day guest 30 days out that the only time available for TSM is at 6:30pm and that potential guest uses that information to decide not to go at all.

This is especially true if we consider there are six distinct classes of park guests from Disney's perspective:

Ticket holders staying on-site
Ticket holders staying off-site
AP Holders staying on-site
AP Holders not staying on-site
On-site guests purchasing tickets day-of
Off-site guests purchasing tickets day-of

Did I miss anybody? I just noticed some other groups mentioned (people who book a package but cancel, people who bought tickets but haven't used them, etc) but I think the above six groups would constitute the majority?

Given that, I can think of several compelling (greedy?) reasons from Disney's POV why one or more of those groups would not be able to "see" FP availability until after they enter the park.