Fort Wilderness Cabins Cannot Stave Off Slow March 2024 Direct Sales

[Nabas]

Anyone at Disney with any background knows Disney has said PVB (single room type) was a mistake never to be repeated. I have a hard time believing DVD authorized CFW unless it's planned to be part of Reflections 2.0. If/when the eventually add Reflections 2.0 to CFW, dues should come down.

My thought is they annouce Reflections 2.0 at the member meeting in December. They can't wait 10 years like they did to fix PVB's single room type mistake.

It might have been tied to Reflections at one point.

My guess is that some “Sharp Pencil Guy” (as Walt called them) said, “I have a great idea! The cabins are due for replacement. Let’s get DVC members to pay for it!”

 

[maui22]

It might have been tied to Reflections at one point.

My guess is that some “Sharp Pencil Guy” (as Walt called them) said, “I have a great idea! The cabins are due for replacement. Let’s get DVC members to pay for it!”

At the rate sales are going, they may need to replace them again before the resort sells out.

 

[DVCsloth]

Kind of a perfect storm happening IMO. Oversaturation of DVC resorts, expensive dues and high point cost at CFW as well as no added amenities that I know of, VDH looks awesome but high TOT, resale restrictions, economic uncertainty and not much information on Poly Tower.

 

[jennypenny]

We were interested in the Cabins but only because they are dog-friendly (we don’t like the lack of typical DVC amenities in the cabin or at the resort). Then DVC went out of their way to stress to people not to count on them being dog-friendly, so we passed. I don’t see any reason to pay those dues for what you get unless i know I can bring my dogs.

I don’t get their thinking on this. It’s currently dog-friendly, which turns off potential buyers who don’t want that, but they won’t guarantee it, which turns off buyers like us. Maybe there isn’t as much planning as I assume? After all, they said no dogs on the furniture in the Cabins and then sent out promotional materials with photos of dogs on the furniture lol.

 

[Cfabar1]

I'm curious to see how cash bookings go with this....

I have always suspected they did the DVC at the cabins just to pass along some of the initial investment of the replacement cost to whoever they could con into buying the cabins contracts... I doubt they ever envisioned the resort truly becoming a DVC resort...

Either way, I have to imagine this is an even bigger disappointment in sales than their worst estimates had in mind... A truly bizarre and questionable business decision in my view.

 

[Tatebeck]

Yeah I don't know what they are thinking. Same price as the other resorts, but more isolated, higher dues, less amenities, etc. The only good thing is the number of people per room and the point charts.

Maybe they should have made the points cheaper and increase the point charts? Right now it's too tempting to have points somewhere else and just use them at the cabins if they want to try them or need a cheap room for 6. And having cheaper points may have tempted some people to get them and use them as SAP+ points at least.

 

[Coronator]

Anyone at Disney with any background knows Disney has said PVB (single room type) was a mistake never to be repeated. I have a hard time believing DVD authorized CFW unless it's planned to be part of Reflections 2.0. If/when the eventually add Reflections 2.0 to CFW, dues should come down.

My thought is they annouce Reflections 2.0 at the member meeting in December. They can't wait 10 years like they did to fix PVB's single room type mistake.

Has there ever been a case of dues coming down?

We were interested in the Cabins but only because they are dog-friendly (we don’t like the lack of typical DVC amenities in the cabin or at the resort). Then DVC went out of their way to stress to people not to count on them being dog-friendly, so we passed. I don’t see any reason to pay those dues for what you get unless i know I can bring my dogs.

I don’t get their thinking on this. It’s currently dog-friendly, which turns off potential buyers who don’t want that, but they won’t guarantee it, which turns off buyers like us. Maybe there isn’t as much planning as I assume? After all, they said no dogs on the furniture in the Cabins and then sent out promotional materials with photos of dogs on the furniture lol.

Yea that’s interesting. I could see that being a huge benefit IF they guaranteed it. The fact they won’t is truly bizarre. If you are going to have stand alone cabins, that are more costly to maintain, you should have some benefits/amenities that are worth the price of admission, or a clientele that is uniquely serviced by this property.

I think Disney had decades of success with DVC properties with virtually no hiccups, and lost the plot with this property (actually very similar with Disney’s other recent failures in their other business units). You have basically a company full of people who no longer know what a bad idea looks like.

I only see this place selling if there is literally no other way to get into DVC.

 

[intamin]

Yeah I don't know what they are thinking. Same price as the other resorts, but more isolated, higher dues, less amenities, etc. The only good thing is the number of people per room and the point charts.

Maybe they should have made the points cheaper and increase the point charts? Right now it's too tempting to have points somewhere else and just use them at the cabins if they want to try them or need a cheap room for 6. And having cheaper points may have tempted some people to get them and use them as SAP+ points at least.

Yep everything after the point charts were released has been a negative. I know it would've increased the dues but not having washer/dryer in this resort when you have dogs in there is a miss IMO. I would rather they had moved the bathroom to next to/in the master, get rid of the bunkbed entirely and put the washer/dryer where the bathroom currently is. Like I've said before, this resort is great for everyone who doesn't own there. I think we're going to see some more movement at 7 months as a result.

 

[intamin]

Has there ever been a case of dues coming down?

It has happened but extremely rare and it's only been by like a couple cents year over year. Nothing like a few dollars or anything like which this resort would need just to be competitive with it's neighbors.

 

[CastAStone]

Has there ever been a case of dues coming down?

The last few resorts have seen their dues stay essentially flat the first few years, which in inflation adjusted terms is a decline.

I think post-Aulani-debacle, Disney has estimated high, with the thinking that going high and coming down may slow initial sales, but at least it won’t put them on the hook for 50 years of partial dues payments.

 

[CarolynFH]

. I would rather they had moved the bathroom to next to/in the master, get rid of the bunkbed entirely and put the washer/dryer where the bathroom currently is

The ironic thing is that the bathroom was between the living area and the bedroom in the cabins that are currently being removed. They moved it to allow them to reposition the queen and bunk beds.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

No, last we heard Aulani was still selling more points per month than CFW sold last month.

Aulani’s problem isn’t a lack of interest, it’s that it’s 11.5 million points.

As an Aulani owner, I don’t find the 11.5 million points to be a problem because our dues would go up a lot if they had a more favorable point chart—and they are pretty high as it is…though I wonder if we are paying Disney’s share of the unsold points? I thought I read somewhere that was the special deal Disney gets in these timeshare documents, at least in FL.

I’ve said it before but I think we’re going to see a mind blowing Poly Tower point chart, especially now that Disney is realizing “friendly point chart with high dues” doesn’t sell with sophisticated (if I do say so myself) DVC repeat buyers— we’d rather buy cheaper points with lower dues, even if we have to pay more points at the home resort and hope we can trade into the 2042 resorts on occasion.

Lastly, I feel like the cabins are not getting enough love on this thread— my personal opinion is that it looks fun to visit but I wouldn’t want to own there. I think it’s great for owners if DVC expands to different kinds of properties and room configurations — but not so great I want to support them by buying CFW at current prices. I would at least consider a fixed week if they were selling 200 point contracts somewhere between the per point cost of RIV and OKW. I had been planning to try to stay for a park-lite trip this fall, but then our standard BWV waitlist cleared and it just feels wrong to trade out of BWV into CFW. Might try to get in around Thanksgiving for part of a split stay.

 

[PiratesOfTheSea]

When these start hitting the resale market...can you imagine how low they will be going for?

 

[Sandisw]

These CFW sales are pretty meek which is why I am still shocked they decided not to try and tie the sales of Poly tower to it via a trust model with enhanced home resort.

But, maybe because of the nature of the way these are constructed onsite, they are purposely keeping sales tempered…not great incentives…until they have enough of the units built and ready for occupancy to support stronger sales?

 

[intamin]

These CFW sales are pretty meek which is why I am still shocked they decided not to try and tie the sales of Poly tower to it via a trust model with enhanced home resort.

But, maybe because of the nature of the way these are constructed onsite, they are purposely keeping sales tempered…not great incentives…until they have enough of the units built and ready for occupancy to support stronger sales?

That's not a bad thought.. I guess it would look really bad if they sold points and then had to pause because they sold out. Also I don't know how far along they are in terms of building more of the cabins but they can't sell the points there if those cabins aren't built yet. Maybe once they're done building them we'll see some decent incentives. Regardless of what they do to the buy in though those dues..

 

[CarolynFH]

though I wonder if we are paying Disney’s share of the unsold points?

If dues collected from owners don’t cover the full amount of operating and maintenance expenses, DVC makes up the shortfall. Dues are calculated by estimating those expenses and dividing by the number of points in the condo association. So if the number of unsold points is significant, DVC is paying to cover those expenses, not you. There should be a statement to that effect in the detailed AUL budget.

 

[Sandisw]

That's not a bad thought.. I guess it would look really bad if they sold points and then had to pause because they sold out. Also I don't know how far along they are in terms of building more of the cabins but they can't sell the points there if those cabins aren't built yet. Maybe once they're done building them we'll see some decent incentives. Regardless of what they do to the buy in though those dues..

They can sell before they are built, like now, but they have to be sure that the cabins being activated for sale will be available for sure for occupancy when points are valid.

 

[Sandisw]

If dues collected from owners don’t cover the full amount of operating and maintenance expenses, DVC makes up the shortfall. Dues are calculated by estimating those expenses and dividing by the number of points in the condo association. So if the number of unsold points is significant, DVC is paying to cover those expenses, not you. There should be a statement to that effect in the detailed AUL budget.

To add, DVD doesn’t have to offer the guarantee. If they don’t, then all owners, including them pay full fees and the shortfall

The fact they do offer this each year tells me they make out better this way.

I haven’t read the CFW POS through yet,,,visiting Ireland right now. !…so I am not sure if it’s set the same way for property activated for sale or not!

 

[geargrinder]

I wouldn’t take a free contract at the Cabins, and I think a lot of people feel the same way. Especially since 7 month availability is obviously not going to be an issue for years and years.

I agree. Just did a quick search and calculation.

Just over 40% of all resale contracts available right now are cheaper than a free Cabin contract.

 

[intamin]

They can sell before they are built, like now, but they have to be sure that the cabins being activated for sale will be available for sure for occupancy when points are valid.

Exactly, they're probably trying to be cautious so they don't oversell so that once July 1st rolls around, they haven't sold more points than are available at the cabins based on their construction progress.