For those who said the DOUBLE DIGIT lead was just a fluke

[JoeThaNo1Stunna]

NEW YORK, Sept. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Immediately following the Republican
National Convention in New York, the latest Newsweek Poll shows that, in a
two-way presidential trial heat, the Bush/Cheney ticket would win over a
Kerry/Edwards ticket by 54 percent vs. 43 percent among registered voters. In
a three-way trial heat, including Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader, the
Bush/Cheney ticket would still win 52 percent to 41 percent for Kerry/Edwards
and 3 percent for Nader/Camejo among registered voters. That represents a
13-point margin bounce for Bush/Cheney since an August 5-10 poll conducted by
Princeton Survey Research Associates International for the Pew Research
Center.
And even though more Americans (49%) say they are dissatisfied with the
way things are going in the U.S. at this time (43% are satisfied), President
George W. Bush's approval rating has gone up to 52 percent, a seven-point
increase since the last Newsweek Poll (July 29-30), and the first time it's
topped 50 percent since January. Also 53 percent of registered voters say the
would like to see President Bush re-elected to another term. The last time a
majority of Americans wanted to see the president re-elected was May 2003.
In comparing the two presidential candidates, more registered voters think
President Bush has strong leadership qualities than Kerry (65% vs. 47%), is
more honest and ethical (62% vs. 47%), says what he believes and not just what
people want to hear (66% vs. 42%), would trust him to make the right decisions
during an international crisis (57% vs. 44%), shares their values (54% vs.
42%), and is personally likeable (67% vs. 59%). In addition, more registered
voters think President Bush would do a better job than Sen. Kerry on various
issues: terrorism and homeland security (60% vs. 32%), the situation in Iraq
(55% vs. 37%), foreign policy (54% vs. 38%), taxes (52% vs. 38%), economy (49%
vs. 43%), education (48% vs. 42%), and gay marriage (44% vs. 36%). More
people say Sen. Kerry would do a better job than President Bush on healthcare,
including Medicare (45% vs. 43%) and the environment (50% vs. 36%).
-----

And if ya don't know, know ya know!

Na na na, na na na, hey hey hey....

 

[Pugdog007]

 

[Pin Wizard]

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[ThAnswr]

Originally posted by JoeThaNo1Stunna
NEW YORK, Sept. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Immediately following the Republican
National Convention in New York, the latest Newsweek Poll shows that, in a
two-way presidential trial heat, the Bush/Cheney ticket would win over a
Kerry/Edwards ticket by 54 percent vs. 43 percent among registered voters. In
a three-way trial heat, including Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader, the
Bush/Cheney ticket would still win 52 percent to 41 percent for Kerry/Edwards
and 3 percent for Nader/Camejo among registered voters.

No, that's not what the poll says. The question that was asked was:

>>>"Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the following three choices for president and vice president: George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats; and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independent or third party candidates. [Choices rotated.] Who would you vote for?"

IF NONE OF THESE "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush and Cheney, the Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats; or Nader and Camejo?"<<<

The results of the Newsweek poll are basically the same as the Times poll is because they have the same kicker of choosing who you're leaning towards if you are undecided.

Zogby is showing Bush 46% Kerry 44% and 9% undecided.

Rassmussen is showing Bush 49% Kerry 45% and 4% undecided.

The Zogby and Rassmussen polls are a straight line "who are you more likely to vote for" with the undecideds remaining undecided if they choose. This is why there is such a large swing between the Time-Newsweek polls and the Zogby-Rassmussen polls.

What does it all mean? I don't know, but it's going to be interesting.

 

[Microcell]

:thewave::thewave:

I did not expect this kind of momentum so soon! I figured maybe after the debates... We shall see how those go. Bush seems comfortable, but Kerry may be persuasive- once he decides what he is for. The next couple of months should be interesting. I just hope we don't have to wait a few weeks after the election to find out who won!

 

[disney4us2002]

ThAnswr, you think "lean" is making people vote differently? I don't get what you're saying. Do you think the poll is skewed because Bush/Cheney was listed before Kerry/Edwards?

Nice to see you still have power there. I guess it's not too bad or is it still coming?

 

[faithinkarma]

No, the poll is skewed because they questioned more republicans than democrats, Add to that the fact that the callers specifically requested to speak to the youngest male in the house, and if he was not available, their second choice was to speak with the oldest female in the house. Additionally, 42% of the households called were military ones.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040904/nysa058_1.html

Traditionally, polls are not taken during a convention simply because during any particular party's event, more members of that party are likely to be home to answer the phone. Polls were not taken until after the democrat convention for just that reason.

 

[ThAnswr]

Originally posted by disney4us2002
ThAnswr, you think "lean" is making people vote differently? I don't get what you're saying. Do you think the poll is skewed because Bush/Cheney was listed before Kerry/Edwards

Let me see if I can explain this. There's a very large difference between the Time-Newsweek polls and the Zogby-Rassmussen polls. There has to be a reason why. So, I looked it up and that's how the "lean" question came up.

Do I think "lean" is making people vote differently? What "lean" does is force someone to choose while they're still undecided. At least, that's how I'm reading the question and I can be delusional with the best of them.

And, no I don't think the name order has anything to do with the poll results. Unless, of course, you're talking about Palm Beach county.

Now, if tomorrow Zogby came up with a poll of registered/likely voters and the question was asked without the "lean" option showing Bush with a double digit lead, I would be very disappointed and sad because I think Bush has been nothing short of a disaster for this country. I'm very afraid of what would happen if the re-election option no longer existed. What brakes would there be on the extreme ideologues that surround Bush if they didn't have to be re-elected?

But, that's something for another thread.

If the Zogby poll showed Bush with a double digit lead, well the people have spoken and that's the end of that.

Originally posted by disney4us2002
Nice to see you still have power there. I guess it's not too bad or is it still coming?

We've been having brownouts since we got power back after Charley. We're getting the bands of squall and the second one just came through about 30 minutes ago.

Frances is not supposed to hit SW Florida, then again I wasn't supposed to be at ground zero for Charley.

We'll hope for the best and hope everyone affected by Frances stays safe.

 

[shortbun]

Still a long time and a lotta polls to go. As they say, don't
count your chickens before they're hatched.

 

[captJack88]

As happy as I am about the double digit lead, I'm not getting to excited about it. They always have a bounce after a convention. Kerry had one too, though he only went up a point or so. If ( and hopefully when) Bush gains another lead after the debate, then I'll start to dance. I saw a straw poll on AOL yesterday, it was a good poll, they simply had the 3 canidates and they broke it down to what state you were in. According to that, Bush won every state except 2 or 3 at the time I was there. I didn't even get too excited about that one, as much as I loved all those red states! Hopefully it will still hold true on election day!

 

[faithinkarma]

From Rasmussen's, founder of Rasmussen Reports, site...I can't provide a link because it is a premium site available only to members.

Scott's Page by Scott Rasmussen...September 4, 2004---Time Magazine Shows Bush by 11..."A Time magazine poll released yesterday shows Bush up by 11 points. However, that poll appears to have the mirror image problem of a Los Angeles Times poll reportedly showing Kerry with a huge lead in June. As I discussed earlier in this page, the LA Times included too many Democrats in their sample. Today, it seems clear the Time Magazine included too many Republicans."

"Time reports that Republicans will vote for Bush by a 89% to 9% margin; Democrats for Kerry by 80% to 9% margin; and, unaffiliated voters for Bush 43% to 39%. When I apply some reasonable assumptions about partisan turnout (35%R to 39%D), the Time results show Bush up by about 3 percentage points. That's very close to the Rasmussen Reports data and where I believe the race stands today." Scott Rasmussen concluded.

 

[JoeThaNo1Stunna]

I work in political surveying and asking for the youngest male registered voter is common practice. The reason being is that if you don't ask, then you overwhelmingly get a vast majority of respondents being females over 70 years of age. Even when asking for the youngest male, I find that you still get about 60% females. There was nothing unusual about this poll, if a voter is undecided and you ask who they lean to, that means if the election were held today they would most likely vote for the candidate they lean to. This survey in particular had 60+ more female respondents than male.

 

[MikeB63]

If you look at the data from the Yahoo link provided, the percentage breakdown is 38% Republican, 31% Democrat, and 31% Independent. That's pretty evenly split in my assessment. Yes, there were slightly more Republicans, but not by a whole lot. I do agree with another poster though that there is a long way to go. As a Bush supporter, I'm impressed and happy to see it, particularly because Kerry got next to zero bounce coming out of his convention.

 

[faithinkarma]

The point is that the population as a whole is not evenly divided between republicans and democrats. There are more democrats. So questioning more republicans is particularly unbalanced.