I've owned VGC since '08, book there several times a year every other year (when we have APs).
There have been a few special times when I haven't been able to get what I want at 11 months. One was a birthday weekend in February that happened to be a marathon weekend. I think we ended up booking the following weekend instead.
Once was my son's birthday which fell on a weekend that year; it happens to be a minor holiday that everyone has off. We just wait listed and it came through before the 7 month mark.
Both of those times it happened to be studios that we wanted. I have never been not able to get a 1 or 2 bedroom at 11 months, which we book larger rooms for about half of our stays.
Studios on weekends, particularly holiday weekends go the fastest. Although one year we booked a studio for the week between Xmas and New Year's for a milestone birthday (otherwise we try to avoid that crazy week) and I woke up to book online at 6a. The studios were still available for several weeks, probably due to high point cost. I could have slept in if I'd watched previous year patterns.
Since my April/May and now July trips have gotten cancelled I've been trying to watch availability for the replacement trips we want in the late winter and spring when we normally would have been on our AP year off (by the time the pandemic hit Sept/Oct/early Nov availability was gone, our APs were supposed to expire after Labor Day weekend). In late March, about 8 months out I was able to snag one night in a one bedroom in November, wait listed a second night that came through so now I have a Thanksgiving week trip (studios for most of November and early Dec were gone, 1 bedrooms were spotty). I booked Feb and April but they didn't seem to be moving quickly; I'm glad I didn't want to grab MLK weekend in a studio since those were gone pretty close to 11 months.
That being said availability is pretty good in the 8-11 month range for non-holiday/marathon weekends.