First Riviera ROFR

[havoc315]

What is the secret to getting into the 3+ resorts that haven’t been opened yet?

Don’t think Lakeside Lodge and 2 or more other resorts will be open by 2045?

 

[Brian Noble]

circles me back to direct

Mission accomplished from Disney's perspective.

 

[DVCsloth]

Mission accomplished from Disney's perspective.

Sure does make it a tempting resale purchase for some of us though. Although, I'm out of the points accumulation phase at this time.

 

[Brian Noble]

I'm not.

 

[eticketplease]

Don’t think Lakeside Lodge and 2 or more other resorts will be open by 2045?

Waiting 20 years He said "imagine in 2045." One will be finished soon and I'm sure a couple more will be built by then.

Totally missed that part lol

@stat pointed that I missed the imagine portion. Sorry about that.

 

[Brianstl]

Especially true when the older resorts starting disappearing in 16 more years.
Imagine 2045:
Direct points are good at 20+ resorts.
For all the newest resorts with longest contracts, re-sale will be 1 resort only.
“Original” resort resale points will be valid at only about 9 resorts, 3 of which having under 15 years left on contract. And all the newest resorts excluded.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Disney eventually adopt more standardized buy back programs during periods of reduced new building. (I can imagine VDL and Lakeside Lodge carrying sales to 2030… but then a slowdown in the 2030’s awaiting massive re-building in the 2040’s).

Nobody should be purchasing for what would be 16-20 years from now when it comes to what will be available for you to book. You could no longer be interested in going to Disney, you may no longer be physically able to attend the parks, your children or grand children might not be the fans of the parks that you are and sadly any of us could be dead at that point. There are good cases to be made for deciding on direct over resale, but where you can book 20 years from now isn't one of them

 

[Carouselofplanning]

I wanted to believe this was true with respect to RIV - I mean, I'd love for DVD to think, oh boy, we really screwed this up with the whole resale restrictions thing. But, then I look at RIV selling 140,000 points in February 2020 with an average of almost 111,000 points per month in that first year of opening before COVID shut it all down and I just can't see it. If resale restrictions were going to have an effect, it should have been most pronounced during this time because RIV was the only resort with them. I guess it's possible they would have sold even more RIV points during that first year without the resale restrictions.

Yeah but you’re also talking about when a place just opened. There’s always pent up demand for the “I gotta have the new resort” people. Talk about the emotional purchasers. Those are the ones who think least about the trade offs. I’m sure Lakeshore gets off to a nice start too.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

While it is fun to argue about how much resale prices will rise or fall at RIV compared to other resorts, I think it misses a big point. That point is that resale prices are going to fall at all resorts and maybe pretty dramatically. What makes resale attractive is the savings versus a cash stay at a regular Disney deluxe resort over time. For the current prices to remain sustainable it requires the cash rates at Disney deluxe resorts to be able to keep increasing at the incredible rate they have in the post pandemic world. If you look at what is happening hotel occupancy rates and prices over the last six months around the world, those kind of increases in cash rates are proving to be unsustainable. If you think Disney won't be impacted by the kind of problems we are seeing develop in places like Vegas, I think you are being overly optimistic.

I am not saying we are headed into a recession or anything like that. I just think we are seeing a growing backlash to the dramatic increases in the cost of vacations far outpacing even the sky high inflation rates. Now that people don't feel the need for revenge travel, they are becoming ever increasingly price sensitive when it comes to vacation spending.

This is so insightful. The Vegas price gouging thing is real. Disney has to be acutely aware of it. DVC in general has to remain cost effective on a per stay basis versus cash over a realistic timeframe. They currently tell you when selling you it takes 6 stays to get ahead. They can only raise point prices (and inflate new charts) so much. Nobody pays full price for a room outside of holiday weeks. Take 20% off rack rate and that’s usually what people pay. And if dues are too high people also stop buying altogether.
They have to be careful not to kill the golden goose which is to have your own customers finance your new resort construction.